Independent St Petersburg post Napoleon

[GullibleCynic]

Is there a way to have St Petersburg and surrounding environs independent of Russia post Napoleon (after his final defeat and the Congress of Vienna in 1815)?
A protectorate of another country (Germany maybe?) would also be acceptable. Could it break off from Russia and maybe form a union Baltic protectorate with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania? Would this be more or less viable than complete independence? It seems like an independent St Petersburg would be very vulnerable to Russian resurgence, though I am not the most familiar with the local geography, and so having a powerful patron would be the best way to ensure continued independence.
The most obvious way seems to me to be a full collapse of Russia, like in WWI but even worse. Perhaps if the Crimean war escalated if we are looking earlier in time?
Supposedly the area was fairly Swedish and Finnish in the 18th century. Would it have been completely Russified by the 19th? Would that make a difference?

 

[Evil Crusader]

By 1815, Saint Petersburg was the only capital Russians had known in living memory. To have it given away means the power of Russia has been dramatically broken (by whom?).
It's one of those POD where the major implications make it hard to give an answer because you're talking out a Great Power that had large influence on the world, and that probably has even larger influence on Europe where the Russian breaker is likely based.

 

[Amon34]

I just came across this map where after napoleon's victory russia was balkanized

 

[KaiserWilhelm]

By post Napoleon, are you saying the POD can’t be France winning the Russian campaign and splitting off St. Petersburg as a archduchy of a loyal Russian noble?

 

[GullibleCynic]

By post Napoleon, are you saying the POD can’t be France winning the Russian campaign and splitting off St. Petersburg as a archduchy of a loyal Russian noble?

That's right. My preference would be for a POD after the conclusion of the Congress of Vienna. The actual event could even take place in the 20th century, but it seemed like even in that case a 19th century POD might still be needed.

It could be the case, as mentioned above, that this could only really happen as part of a much larger story that would have all sorts of other implications. I'm not 100% convinced, but I'm certainly willing to entertain suggestions in that area. As noted in the tags, I suspect this would require a Russia screw.

 

[TiberiusCaesar]

Is there a way to have St Petersburg and surrounding environs independent of Russia post Napoleon?
A protectorate of another country (Germany maybe?) would also be acceptable. Could it break off from Russia and maybe form a union Baltic protectorate with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania? Would this be more or less viable than complete independence? It seems like an independent St Petersburg would be very vulnerable to Russian resurgence, though I am not the most familiar with the local geography, and so having a powerful patron would be the best way to ensure continued independence.
The most obvious way seems to me to be a full collapse of Russia, like in WWI but even worse. Perhaps if the Crimean war escalated if we are looking earlier in time?
Supposedly the area was fairly Swedish and Finnish in the 18th century. Would it have been completely Russified by the 19th? Would that make a difference?

No.

As long as Russia is united St. Petersburg will not last as a sovereign entity with whatever protection. And Russian collapse is not going to happen between 1802 and 1812.

 

[GullibleCynic]

No.

As long as Russia is united St. Petersburg will not last as a sovereign entity with whatever protection. And Russian collapse is not going to happen between 1802 and 1812.

Apologies, I meant entirely post Napoleon, as in after 1815. I will edit the original post as you are not the only one who found my requirements unclear

 

[TiberiusCaesar]

Apologies, I meant entirely post Napoleon, as in after 1815. I will edit the original post as you are not the only one who found my requirements unclear

Only possibilty I see is a de facto divided Russia after ww1, by various warlords for example. That requires the Reds to be weak too.

A stretch but not entirely impossible around that time.

 

[AltoRegnant]

I guess if the russian civil war just goes into a full warlord period

 

[Comte de Geneve]

After Napoleon it is 99.99% impossible as long as St Pete is the capital of united Russia. And I cannot think of any plausible 19th century event which could cause the fall of the Tsarist state. The only real possibility is as stated above, a scenario after the Bolsheviks move the capital back to Moscow and the Civil War degenerates into a stalemate with multiple 'White' warlords dividing the periphery.

 

[Codae]

I suppose it could end up "independent of Russia" in the same sense that, say, Berlin is "independent of Brandenburg" if the Russian empire is transformed into a USSR-style multinational federation and then its major cities get raised to federal constituents in their own rights.

 

[Valena]

I suppose it could end up "independent of Russia" in the same sense that, say, Berlin is "independent of Brandenburg" if the Russian empire is transformed into a USSR-style multinational federation and then its major cities get raised to federal constituents in their own rights.

Which is kinda sorta IRL when Moscow and St.Petersburg are federal constituent-level regions separate from their respective oblasts as far as administrative division goes.