So most 1860s Third Anglo American War discussions and TLs usually go with a PoD in 1861 or 1862, such as the ever-popular Trent Affair escalates premise. Usually the conclusion reached is that the United States simply loses or is forced to make a separate peace with the British for a whole number of reasons. So to change that up a bit, what happens in the event of war breaking out much later into the ACW?
Of course this is extremely unlikely, but let's just suppose that, say, the St. Albans Raid incident somehow ends up escalating to the point where war breaks out in late 1864. So given the vastly different circumstances compared to something like a Trent War, does the United States actually have of chance of unambiguously winning, like say, forcing the British to cede parts of Canada during peace talks if things actually manage to drag out long enough for something like that to even be on the table?
Of course this is extremely unlikely, but let's just suppose that, say, the St. Albans Raid incident somehow ends up escalating to the point where war breaks out in late 1864. So given the vastly different circumstances compared to something like a Trent War, does the United States actually have of chance of unambiguously winning, like say, forcing the British to cede parts of Canada during peace talks if things actually manage to drag out long enough for something like that to even be on the table?