In a world with no WW1, could Finland, Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Turkestan, etc. ever gain independence from a surviving Russian Empire?

[athgtq16129]

For all talks about how the Ottoman Empire would inevitably collapse with or without WW1 (overall sentiment is no - its collapse was not inevitable, and it could survive if it took necessary steps to), a topic that I do not often see even in surviving Russian Empire discussions, is whenever if some of its regions would ever gain independence in the scenario of a surviving Russian Empire who keeps existing well into the late 20th century til the present day.

Overall, with no Russo-Japanese War, no WW1, and no Russian Revolution, the Empire would be industrialized into a powerhouse, albeit one suffering from chronic problems, it would still fall to revolution, but this time a revolution would likely be one that turns the country into a constitutional monarchy instead of an alt-USSR, given that I do not have in mind a Russo-Japanese War ever happening, that or Russia wins it.

Overall, could Finland and Poland expect to forget about any chances of independence, and undergo heavier Russification, likely turning to calls for greater autonomy and the federalization of the empire into something more similar to OTL Russia, instead of Independence?

About the non-Christian parts of the empire, could there be any separatist sentiments, revolts, and movements in Russian Turkestan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, etc.?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

For all talks about how the Ottoman Empire would inevitably collapse with or without WW1 (overall sentiment is no - its collapse was not inevitable, and it could survive if it took necessary steps to), a topic that I do not often see even in surviving Russian Empire discussions, is whenever if some of its regions would ever gain independence in the scenario of a surviving Russian Empire who keeps existing well into the late 20th century til the present day.

Overall, with no Russo-Japanese War, no WW1, and no Russian Revolution, the Empire would be industrialized into a powerhouse, albeit one suffering from chronic problems, it would still fall to revolution, but this time a revolution would likely be one that turns the country into a constitutional monarchy instead of an alt-USSR, given that I do not have in mind a Russo-Japanese War ever happening, that or Russia wins it.

Overall, could Finland and Poland expect to forget about any chances of independence, and undergo heavier Russification, likely turning to calls for greater autonomy and the federalization of the empire into something more similar to OTL Russia, instead of Independence?

About the non-Christian parts of the empire, could there be any separatist sentiments, revolts, and movements in Russian Turkestan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, etc.?

It depends on what happens since a world where nothing happens from 1914 to 2024 is impossivle but assuming nothing happens the empire would survive and minorities would suffer from Russification, however the Muslim communities wouldn't have a call for independence as strong as the other ones since they are mostly left alone by the central government and intellectuals are busy with religious conservatives more than with the Russians.

 

[Lalli]

In the world without WW1 Russia indeed would face some revolution sooner or latter latest at end of 1920's or early 1930's. It wouldn't make Russia as communist nation but probably would either make Russia constitutional monarchy or Russia becomes republic.

This would be really good potential at least for Finland and Poland to become independent. They begun to be full of Russian opression (and Poles were already beginning anti-Russian). So they probably would gain independence with way or another. Baltics are bit more unlikely when Russia pretty much would want keep them and not sure how strong naitonalist movement there even was. Belarus and Ukraine seems unlikely altough not impossible. Caucasus is uncertain. But Central Asians seemed pretty fine as long as Russians not bother them too much.

 

[Nivek]

Finland is 50-50, Poland no as the germans could help the russian to crush it, Ukraine and belarus NO, as they were happy, the rest even less

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

In the world without WW1 Russia indeed would face some revolution sooner or latter latest at end of 1920's or early 1930's. It wouldn't make Russia as communist nation but probably would either make Russia constitutional monarchy or Russia becomes republic.

I doubt, the revolutions were a direct consequence of wars, there's no way the empire suddenly collapses.

 

[NAF]

People in general vastly underestimate the staying power of multiethnic empires. Tsarist Russia, the Ottoman Empire, and Austria-Hungary all only collapsed after years of fighting in what was at that point the most brutal war in human history. Absent the *immense* strain of the Great War, the Russian Empire isn't losing an inch of territory by mere internal agitation alone -- not so long as the army remains loyal. I imagine the Soviet Union comes to mind as a possible objection, but I feel it should be noted that they were more a case of (as one user once put it) an empire euthanizing itself rather than succumbing to internal pressure. I'd expect in this ATL for the energy of the various minority parties within the Russian Empire to be focused on achieving greater internal autonomy, rather than outright independence.

 

[Lalli]

I doubt, the revolutions were a direct consequence of wars, there's no way the empire suddenly collapses.

Normally I agree but Russian Empire just was walking towards troubles and incompetent and reactionary tsar didn't help that. Social pressures, rising nationalism, political divisions and economic troubles would eventually lead to revolution. Not such what French Revolution or 1917 Russian Revolutions were but still some such events which would cause lot of troubles. You don't always need lost war.

And empires can suddenly collapse. Check Qing Empire or Soviet Union (altough way that it did that was pretty unusual). And not saying that Russian Empire still will fall due revolution but it would be enforced to make serious reforms.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Normally I agree but Russian Empire just was walking towards troubles and incompetent and reactionary tsar didn't help that. Social pressures, rising nationalism, political divisions and economic troubles would eventually lead to revolution. Not such what French Revolution or 1917 Russian Revolutions were but still some such events which would cause lot of troubles. You don't always need lost war.

And empires can suddenly collapse. Check Qing Empire or Soviet Union (altough way that it did that was pretty unusual). And not saying that Russian Empire still will fall due revolution but it would be enforced to make serious reforms.

If you remove ww1 and the Russo-Japanese war the empire won't collapse so easily, empires similar to the Russian one survived as long as a war didn't finish them. And Nicholas II won't always sit on the throne.

 

[Tibi088]

I think the key is avoiding WWI and any analogue for a while.
Russia had a ton of social tensions that makes a time of increased political instability very likely - maybe even a revolution. But as the tzarist regime could get on top of that after 1905 I strongly believe that they can manage it as long as the army is intact.
In the mean time the Empire was developing at an incredible rate - given time this would generate enough wealth to solve social problems to an extent that the regime would stabilize and survive.

I dont think that absenting a successfull revolution any territory can break away.

 

[The Link]

Finland is 50-50, Poland no as the germans could help the russian to crush it, Ukraine and belarus NO, as they were happy, the rest even less

Back then the Belarusians had a very weak national self-awareness, thus they indeed didn't mind living under the tsar. But Ukrainians? They were already developing their national identity, due to the combination of a strong national founding myth (the Cossacks), as well as due to the spread of national ideas from austrian-ruled Galicia where their national movement wasn't suppressed the way it was suppressed under the Russian Empire.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Assuming the Russian Empire avoids major turbulences and foreign wars, they will have enough men and material to exterminate any independence movement, so expect Finland and Poland to remain tight in the empire, even if it will take decades to accomplish it.

 

[Aslangeo]

I can imagine a neutral Poland being created as a buffer state , if this suits both empires, it could even be a kingdom with a romanov and Hohenzollern joint monarchy if one of Nicholas II daughters marrying a younger son of the Kaiser?

 

[Aslangeo]

Finland was a self governing grand Duchy within the Russian empire, it could evolve into a dominion like Canada or Australia, a similar situation might, unlikely but possible , also happen in the Baltics

 

[Lalli]

Finland was a self governing grand Duchy within the Russian empire, it could evolve into a dominion like Canada or Australia, a similar situation might, unlikely but possible , also happen in the Baltics

It was that way until 1899 but then Nicholas II decided to gradually abolish Finnish autonomy and russificate that. Politics anyway became milder after 1905 but still Finnish parliament was dissolved occassionally. You should change tsar before such thing would be possible and even then it would take long time or some revolution so whole system can be changed.

 

[Dan1988]

.Baltics are bit more unlikely when Russia pretty much would want keep them and not sure how strong naitonalist movement there even was.

Hmm, that leaves one question for me: if Finland was even remotely interested, what are the potential chances for a Fenno-Estonian union? Yes, I know, far-fetched as hell (and some could object to seeing Estonian as a Finnish dialect), but stranger things have happened before elsewhere in the world.

Otherwise, for me, the nationalist revivals in Estonia and Latvia starting in the 19th century, to me at least, shows some staying power of a growing nationalist movement- the original Singing Revolution, if you will. The factor that strikes me as one that would indicate Russia's staying power are the Baltic German nobility and how they respond. Lithuania is a different story altogether.

 

[New Cleo Genesis]

Hmm, that leaves one question for me: if Finland was even remotely interested, what are the potential chances for a Fenno-Estonian union? Yes, I know, far-fetched as hell (and some could object to seeing Estonian as a Finnish dialect), but stranger things have happened before elsewhere in the world.

This was actually contemplated in the OTL interwar era, so I don't think it's at all impossible.