In a CP victory scenario, who wins the 1920 US elections?

[Octosteel]

Let's say the US stays neutral and the CP manage to win WWI in 1918. Britain and France are broke and can't pay back all the war debt to the US banks. A huge economic crisis, maybe even a depression, occurs. Who is going to be nominated by each party and who is going to win? Does La Follette have a chance due to his progressive credentials? People will certainly want a FDR-like figure who can end the crisis.

 

[TRH]

Some Republican or another, since they were nigh-invincible from Reconstruction to the Great Depression. I wanna say still Harding, honestly.

 

[Octosteel]

Some Republican or another, since they were nigh-invincible from Reconstruction to the Great Depression. I wanna say still Harding, honestly.

Really? Would people want a "the economy will fix itself" guy when huge portions of the population are unemployed and their financial savings wiped with things not looking better?

 

[TRH]

Really? Would people want a "the economy will fix itself" guy when huge portions of the population are unemployed and their financial savings wiped with things not looking better?

At the least, they'd want someone from the party not in the White House. And his views were orthodox for both parties at the time. Keynesianism didn't exist yet, so Laissez-faire was basically unopposed.

 

[wcv215]

If the U.S. refuses to enter the war the loans to the Entente are all (or nearly all) secured. If they cannot pay the US takes the collateral. There would probably be an economic downturn, but it won't be Depression level.

 

[Emperor Julian]

With no World War II, Theodore Roosevelt's son will not do so he won't be depressed, so he could run. Some people regarded him as the front runner in OTL 1920 before he died. If he gets the Republicam nomination, he wins big, with opposition split between whatever poor fool the Democrats nominate and a much stronger Debs campaign (no American involvement in war would prevent a large Red Scare)

 

[Mikestone8]

If the U.S. refuses to enter the war the loans to the Entente are all (or nearly all) secured. If they cannot pay the US takes the collateral. There would probably be an economic downturn, but it won't be Depression level.

Iirc there actually was a postwar recession in 1919-20, but the economy soon recovered.

 

[Mikestone8]

Some Republican or another, since they were nigh-invincible from Reconstruction to the Great Depression. I wanna say still Harding, honestly.

They weren't all that invincible in the 1910s.

With no war issues, I'd expect 1920 to be a lot like 1916. The Republicans may win, but even if they do, they won't win big.

Nor is it certain that they'll win at all. If Thomas R Marshall (or whoever) has been a popular President , he could get another term. And "He kept us out of war" might carry even more weight in 1920 than in 1916.