Implications of a Dutch Formosa

[Muwatalli']

Let's say Koxinga dies during the war with the Qing, or maybe he died of malaria as in OTL, but a few years earlier, so he never invades Taiwan. Therefore Taiwan would most likely stay Dutch, as the Qing would not have a reason to invade Taiwan.

How would a Dutch Formosa/Taiwan develop? Would the Dutch be able to keep Formosa from the Chinese and other colonial powers? And how would this impact the Netherlands and their position in Asia?

 

[XFE]

The Dutch could keep Taiwan from China, as the lack of anti-Qing elements in Taiwan would remove much of the motivation to take Taiwan on the part of the Qing. I'd say Taiwan would develop into a larger and (much) more prosperous Macau if the Dutch manage the island well.

 

[wietze]

The Dutch could keep Taiwan from China, as the lack of anti-Qing elements in Taiwan would remove much of the motivation to take Taiwan on the part of the Qing. I'd say Taiwan would develop into a larger and (much) more prosperous Macau if the Dutch manage the island well.

not just a larger Macau, it would also function as a larger & offshore Deshima. OTL the Japanese learned a lot from the interaction with the dutch at Deshima, with Formosa being Dutch, certain things could take place at Formosa instead (education for example).

 

[XFE]

not just a larger Macau, it would also function as a larger & offshore Deshima. OTL the Japanese learned a lot from the interaction with the dutch at Deshima, with Formosa being Dutch, certain things could take place at Formosa instead (education for example).

Perhaps we'd see Japan not falling too far behind other European powers in technology. China meanwhile depends on the individual Emperor. The Qing did have a problem with Dutch Pirates, so that might mean a stronger Chinese navy needed to counter the Dutch.

 

[Parma]

The irony is that Taiwan is Chinese due to the Dutch.
When the Spanish arrived and the Dutch took over the island was inhabited by non Chinese aboriginals, more related to Polynesians.
Due to trade opportunities Chinese were attracted and settled at the trade posts of the Dutch.
A Dutch Formosa would be undoubtedly be Chinese but with a Dutch twist, most likely in the form of a large Protestant ( Calvinistic) population and a middle and upper class of various mixed descent which would speak Dutch as the nobility spoke French in Europe.
I do think it would be a very profitable place as a transit hub for Chinese goods and as a supply base for the VOC

 

[wietze]

The Qing did have a problem with Dutch Pirates, so that might mean a stronger Chinese navy needed to counter the Dutch.

With the Dutch/VOC holding Formosa i think the pirate problem would be far less. The VOC didn't like competition and others undermining their business, expect that that any pirate would be dealt with rather quick if Formosa develops to an important colony/trade-hub

 

[Timaeus]

Well obviously the Philippines is lost completely.

I mean, think about it: the whole reason Dutchmen set up outposts on Formosa was to seal off Spanish trade.

 

[raharris1973]

Well obviously the Philippines is lost completely

You mean they all get taken by the Dutch from the Spanish? What do you mean by lost?

 

[Timaeus]

You mean they all get taken by the Dutch from the Spanish? What do you mean by lost?

As I said: If the Dutch are in such a strong position in the East Indies as to maintain a permanent presence on Formosa, that means the Spanish have been cut off from China, and so have likely lost Manila already, and thus have lost the Spanish East Indies.

The main reason Spain did not lose these islands was the maintenance of the trade with China. If Formosa is Dutch, that link is lost, and with it the whole archipelago.

 

[kasumigenx]

As I said: If the Dutch are in such a strong position in the East Indies as to maintain a permanent presence on Formosa, that means the Spanish have been cut off from China, and so have likely lost Manila already, and thus have lost the Spanish East Indies.

The main reason Spain did not lose these islands was the maintenance of the trade with China. If Formosa is Dutch, that link is lost, and with it the whole archipelago.

The ties of N. Luzon and Java will continue....so there would be no Philippines as it is now...

 

[Namayan]

As I said: If the Dutch are in such a strong position in the East Indies as to maintain a permanent presence on Formosa, that means the Spanish have been cut off from China, and so have likely lost Manila already, and thus have lost the Spanish East Indies.

The main reason Spain did not lose these islands was the maintenance of the trade with China. If Formosa is Dutch, that link is lost, and with it the whole archipelago.

Don't think it is that simple. The Dutch need to interdict all the Chinese traders going to Manila to achieve what you want.

The Spanish didn't need to go to China to trade. The Chinese went to Manila to get the silver. nor would the Dutch have anything valuable enough silver to force the Chinese traders go to Taiwan.

Another way to force the Chinese to go to Taiwan is South America becoming Dutch in atl.

Another would be The Dutch can sink each galleon bound for Manila but the spanish would just ramp up the defense of galleon trade or worse invade the Dutch thru Spanish controlled Low Countries.