Let's say for the sake of argument that the Western Roman Empire was able to not only survive but last in some capacity until the modern day (at least inside Italy) and the Eastern Empire falls sometime around the same time as the WRE in OTL. What impact might this have on European history and World history as a whole? Due to the WRE surviving, might we see a Roman Colonial Empire in the New World and elsewhere? How might having a WRE that never totally falls affect the Catholic and Orthodox churches?
Impact of Surviving WRE instead of ERE
- Thread starter Remus Augustus
- Start date
Depends what borders that would has. I suspect that WRE can keep its 395 borders. Britain and Hispania are almost certainly lost and probably Gauls too. That empire would at least firstly really instable nation since Germans would attack there. And important factor is how long ERE would last and how it would collapse.
But I doubt that WRE is able to create colonial empire unless it can't get direct control on Atlantic. Things would are really unrecognsible.
But I doubt that WRE is able to create colonial empire unless it can't get direct control on Atlantic. Things would are really unrecognsible.
Wiki mentions the trans saharan trade as peaking between the 8th and 17th century while the met musam seems to consider it from the 7th to 14th century so as long as the Western romen empire retains its African tarritorys for a few more centuries they should start becoming more profitable assuming trade picks up in a similer manner around the 7th to 8th century which might provide them a stabilizing economic life line.
en.m.wikipedia.org
www.metmuseum.org
Trans-Saharan trade - Wikipedia
The Trans-Saharan Gold Trade (7th–14th Century) | Essay | The Metropolitan Museum of Art | Heilbrunn Timeline of Art History
Gold, sought from the western and central Sudan, was the main commodity of the trans-Saharan trade. The traffic in gold was spurred by the demand for and supply of coinage.
www.metmuseum.org
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Gonna break this down so I can better hypothesize. I'm also gonna assume for the sake of discussion that Western Rome held the equal amount of territory to OTL Byzantium:
- A surviving Western Roman Empire would in all likelihood make an attempt to reclaim the eastern lands, much as Justinian II in OTL did with the western lands. Its possible that a Justinian-like emperor would do even better in the east than Justinian did in the west, although there is always the chance that Egypt could assert its independence under a dynasty of mixed Greek-Egyptian-Roman heritage-possibly expanding into the Levant and south to Nubia. Should this happen, West Rome would likely try and defeat them, possibly conquering the Levant and imposing vassalage on them. The West Romans could make the Frankish state a foederati and use them to bring Britannia back under Roman rule. Hispania could also be reconquered for Rome. There would likely be no Dark Ages as this was predicated on the collapse of Roman rule across Western Europe. They would still have to contend with Vikings descending from Scandinavia and while military fortunes would be mixed in the Roman-Viking Wars, there would be insufficient manpower for either side to deliver a knockout blow as Scandinavia is sparsely inhabited and Rome would likely have to divert troops east and south to try and stem the Arab advance. If the Avars, Slavs, and Magyars irrupt into Europe as in OTL, Rome could lose some border territories around Pannonia and Transcarpathia to them but I suspect that they would make foederatii of the invaders as well. Egypt might lose the Levant initially to the Arabs, but should Rome send sufficient forces into the region, the Levant could be liberated. There is some possibility for a joint Egyptian-Roman expedition into Arabia, and should this be successful, Islam would become a minority sect as opposed to a world religion as in OTL. (The second consequence of this successful expedition would be that Persia would likely regain any territories lost to the Arabs and become a major power in the Middle East again).
-Assuming that Western Rome eventually incorporate the various foederatii (Franks, Alemanni, Saxons, Burgundians) into the empire, they would rule Germany up to the Elbe River. This could play a role in the later development of states such as Pomerania, Poland, Great Moravia and Hungary, either resulting in them becoming allied to Rome or client-states. Regardless, they would have protection against the Kievan Rus (with them even possibly introducing Roman Christianity to them), Fast-forward to the 1230s-1240s and the Mongol Invasion and these states, allied or aligned with Rome would be better able to contain the Mongol attacks, though with substantial losses of life (Kiev would likely still be razed to the ground by the Mongols). The Black Death would still spread into Europe as a result of contact with the Mongols as in OTL, and likely the same total in dead would result (hard to determine in an alternate scenario).This could, however, begin a trend of separatism in the various regions as each region could be affected by the Plague in different ways. That separatism could even be given a boost with the divergence in religious views which would start off quietly and in affected villages, but gradually spread across the provinces.
-A Roman colonial empire would be possible assuming that they maintained their rule in Hispania. Where they would first establish settler colonies would depend on conditions such as ocean currents and weather. Assuming Brazil is discovered first (even before the OTL voyages around Africa), this would lead to an earlier discovery of the Americas. Because Western Europe (except Scandinavia) would be united under Roman hegemony, the only competitors for the New World would be the Scandinavian peoples-assuming the Chinese and/or Japanese haven't come upon the Americas around the same time due to various other butterflies which are too many to list.
-As far as a Protestant Reformation, none as we know it in OTL would happen. But should slight divergences in religious practices happen as a result of the combination of Plague, contact with native peoples in the Americas, or the lingering traces of Islam making its way via Egypt into Rome, then a reformation would be likely. I don't honestly see an Orthodox religion being a factor as the eastern lands had not been allowed to remain sovereign long enough for the Great Schism to happen. But then again, Kievan Rus (if it somehow survived the Mongol Invasions and even incorporated Tengrist shamanism into its Christian practices) could forge an orthodox version of Christianity.
-As for how long this resurrected Roman (Western) Empire could last, that's harder to determine. Even with all the hypothesized possibilities I listed, there is no certain path forward beyond the Renaissance. Separatism could become such an issue in that time that provinces break away and become national states. Client-states could see rebellions which install a more independent government that could even go to war with Rome. Generals such as Marlborough, Conde, and even Napoleon could still become generals or they could have different career outcomes. Assuming that Rome loses all but the original core territory (Italia) in the likely chaos, the Romans might be willing to align with any power that promises their restoration to greatness a la Mussolini.
There are likely others who can better outline possibilities than I just did, but this is at least my attempt to theorize based on what I know, and while I did not go into exacting detail, the general idea should hopefully be sufficient enough.
This place fantasies.
Not even ere lived that long and wre was far weaker
If you consider the sheer scope and scale of history, the ERE didn't fall that long ago. The Byzantine Empire fell in 1453, and it was 1492 when Columbus got lost and landed in the Caribbean, beginning the era of European colonial holdings. In other words, the ERE managed to survive from the bronze age until the beginning of the pre-modern era. Sounds impressive to me.
Agreed. However, much depends on whether the West cripples itself in bloody civil wars. I grant you that in any TL civil wars are going to happen and cannot be stopped- however the real question is how many occur during, say, a period of 150 years or so. Depending on the answer, WRE will have significantly different manpower pools. The West needs a period akin to the reign of the 5 good emperor's or a period of relative peace and stability with a series of competent emperors. This gives the West the greatest potential to either conquer new territory, restore Roman rule in the territory conquered by the Turks and other Islamic states, or bolster their borders and spend time fortifying their current holdings. I believe the West has an golden opportunity to finish the conquest of Caledonia and maybe even Hibernia, I
believe that Germania is such a wild card in history that it is hard to predict the ebb and flow of territorial gains of empires in the area. It could truly go a number of different ways in any Alternative TL
In a world in which the WRE outlasts the ERE, I believe Rome would be in much the same position as Spain, Portugal and France was in the Beginning of the Age of Exploration. Further, the WRE has a fun problem that none of the nations listed above faced: in a surviving WRE, there is a period of a thousand years that Rome may have experienced technological advancement much earlier than OTL. It truly depends on the power and sway of the Church and their dogma. In OTL the Vatican played a major part of why we call the period between the fall of the West and the beginning of the Renaissance the Dark Ages. This could have vast implications and would definitely give Rome an advantage colonizing new territory
Agreed.
Also agree here. Eventually, the West is going to lose north Africa, the Iberian peninsula and parts of in not all of Gaul. I think this is unavoidable. But do they become 'the Sick Man of Europe' ala the Ottoman Empire OTL or are able to somewhat ride out the storm through reform.
I still appreciate the time you took to read and respond to this thread. Thanks!
You mean sponsoring learning and making records and preserving roman knowledge? Later building the first universities and encouraging experimentation, developements in mathematics and linguistics? The so called Dark Ages were called such because we have a derth of written material from the period. A fact that was only really true in England and northern France and even then only for a century or so. I'm sick and tired of this stupid myth being presented as fact.
What kind of borders we talking about? Something like this (credit to B_Munro)
Perhaps it would be better if the surviving WRE is in Gaul or Spain rather than Italy which will make it analogous to the Byzantines.
There are two possibilities for a West Roman colonial empire:
1) If a Roman dynasty were to marry into the Spanish Trastamara dynasty before they later married their daughter to a Hapsburg, then its possible that the Roman dynasty could inherit the crowns of Spain (Castile and Aragon with its various duchies). This dual monarchy could then proceed with the great Age of Discovery and begin colonizing the Caribbean Islands first. This would, obviously, alter the course of world history and would also have an impact on events in Europe. The Hapsburgs, deprived of the dynastic marriage to the Spanish royal family would lack the necessary financial and material resources to combat the Ottoman Turks-though there is a possibility for a military alliance between West Rome and the Hapsburg Monarchy should the Turks threaten Italy. If Venice exists, they could also join this alliance. A war in the form of a crusade would enable West Rome to conquer Tripoli and Tunis.
2)West Rome could establish a dynastic alliance with Aragon early on, thus preventing the dynastic union with Castile. Upon Ferdinand of Aragon's death (assuming he's born of this dynastic marriage), the Roman king would inherit the Crown of Aragon. He could then forge a similar dynastic alliance with Castile (or use any claims Aragon has on Castile to declare war and conquer it), however, this war might drag in Portugal and France as they were on good terms-if not allied-with Castile. Should this happen, West Rome and Aragon could conquer the French Mediterranean coast and thereby establish a land-link between Aragon and the main Italian territory of West Rome
That's quite a butterfly genocide. Such early point of divergence (RE surviving, at least in Italy) could bring many more possibilities. For example, the romans themselves could have reconquered Spain in an alternate reconquista, or maybe even simply kept it.
Honestly if the East really falls I expect the Sassanids to attack ASAP, no way are they going to let such a golden chance pass them by and try to recreate the Empire of Cyrus, at the very least the Levant, Egypt, Caucasus and most of Eastern and Southern Anatolia would fall into their hands, the Western Empire can still have most of Coastal Anatolia and the important city of Constantinople but I don't see them managing to get back Egypt or the Levant given they would still be dealing with the Germanic tribes as well as the usual troubles of trying to keep a Roman empire stable.
With a much stronger Sassanid Persia who's not exhausted from it's wars against Rome like it was OTL, they definitely beat back the Arabs and keep Western Asia under their control.
With a much stronger Sassanid Persia who's not exhausted from it's wars against Rome like it was OTL, they definitely beat back the Arabs and keep Western Asia under their control.
What, how, and why did the WRE survive.
One possibility I like: Aëtius assasinates Valentinian III and claims the Imperial title. This puts Rome in the position of being fairly stable (for as much as it ever was) when Attila dies. Subsequent drama obviously erupts with Vandals, Visigoths and Franks, but we're looking at a Rome that at least holds Italy. Aetius, on his reputation, manages to sort of keep the Visgoths and Franks as foederati, so there's no immediate burden while the Hunnic drama unfolds, though being Valentinian's murderer may make his life with the Vandals hard.
Eventually this rump WRE (Italy and Dalmatia plus 'allied' Spain and Gaul) convinces the ERE to share the burden of reclaiming Tunisia, and the Vandals are kicked out. Subsequent bickering with the Suebi, Franks and Visigoths leads to Spain and Gaul being lost, but the additional wealth of the African provinces allows Rome to fend off the Lombards (and occasionally profit from Frank-Visigoth and Suebi-Visigoth conflicts).
Fast-forward because to the present day is bloody long, I am assuming the Sassanids and say the Avars or Bulgars crack the ERE between them, the Arab conquests never happen. The Avars become similar to the ERE, the Sassanids do not manage to hold all the rest of the Middle East, leading to a 3-way split between an Egypt-centered Romano-Levantine state (Coptic and independent), an Anatolian-Balkan Avar Empire (Chalcedonian like the WRE), and a Persian state. Arabia may extend to various extents into the Levant and Iraq, but fail to break into Egypt or the Iranian plateau.
The WRE controls some of Dalmatia (in contention with the Avars and the Germanics), Italy, maybe Albania and some of Greece, chunks of Provence (similar to the medieval HRE, so up to about Avignon), and Roman Africa. At various times they control bits of Hispania, usually at least the 'Granada' area.
Now we're in maybe 600-700 and have a small millenium to think about what they do next (try to conquer Egypt, crusades, conquer the Avars, crush the Visigoths in alliance with the Franks or Suebi, etc...)
The Medieval period in OTL didn't see too major shifts in WEuropean borders, after the Arab conquests (a butterfly we just declared as having happened), so let's use that butterfly-net and say this state roughly survives with a variable extension into Dalmatia/southern Gaul/Hispania. Eventually exploration happens, first not by Rome but by their west-Hispanian neighbours, and they hitch a ride along. Cue a Roman colonial Empire funding the final reconquest of Hispania and southern Gaul to about the baroque-era Oil-Oc border, and perhaps reclamining all the Adriatic coast and Greece. This is now a state poised to be the richest piece of Europe until the Industrial Revolution, where it falls more or less behind the coal-fueled 'Germanic' Northern Europe, but still, on ancient pedigree, quite capable to join the scramble for Africa, taking the whole of North Africa (including long-lost Egypt).
One possibility I like: Aëtius assasinates Valentinian III and claims the Imperial title. This puts Rome in the position of being fairly stable (for as much as it ever was) when Attila dies. Subsequent drama obviously erupts with Vandals, Visigoths and Franks, but we're looking at a Rome that at least holds Italy. Aetius, on his reputation, manages to sort of keep the Visgoths and Franks as foederati, so there's no immediate burden while the Hunnic drama unfolds, though being Valentinian's murderer may make his life with the Vandals hard.
Eventually this rump WRE (Italy and Dalmatia plus 'allied' Spain and Gaul) convinces the ERE to share the burden of reclaiming Tunisia, and the Vandals are kicked out. Subsequent bickering with the Suebi, Franks and Visigoths leads to Spain and Gaul being lost, but the additional wealth of the African provinces allows Rome to fend off the Lombards (and occasionally profit from Frank-Visigoth and Suebi-Visigoth conflicts).
Fast-forward because to the present day is bloody long, I am assuming the Sassanids and say the Avars or Bulgars crack the ERE between them, the Arab conquests never happen. The Avars become similar to the ERE, the Sassanids do not manage to hold all the rest of the Middle East, leading to a 3-way split between an Egypt-centered Romano-Levantine state (Coptic and independent), an Anatolian-Balkan Avar Empire (Chalcedonian like the WRE), and a Persian state. Arabia may extend to various extents into the Levant and Iraq, but fail to break into Egypt or the Iranian plateau.
The WRE controls some of Dalmatia (in contention with the Avars and the Germanics), Italy, maybe Albania and some of Greece, chunks of Provence (similar to the medieval HRE, so up to about Avignon), and Roman Africa. At various times they control bits of Hispania, usually at least the 'Granada' area.
Now we're in maybe 600-700 and have a small millenium to think about what they do next (try to conquer Egypt, crusades, conquer the Avars, crush the Visigoths in alliance with the Franks or Suebi, etc...)
The Medieval period in OTL didn't see too major shifts in WEuropean borders, after the Arab conquests (a butterfly we just declared as having happened), so let's use that butterfly-net and say this state roughly survives with a variable extension into Dalmatia/southern Gaul/Hispania. Eventually exploration happens, first not by Rome but by their west-Hispanian neighbours, and they hitch a ride along. Cue a Roman colonial Empire funding the final reconquest of Hispania and southern Gaul to about the baroque-era Oil-Oc border, and perhaps reclamining all the Adriatic coast and Greece. This is now a state poised to be the richest piece of Europe until the Industrial Revolution, where it falls more or less behind the coal-fueled 'Germanic' Northern Europe, but still, on ancient pedigree, quite capable to join the scramble for Africa, taking the whole of North Africa (including long-lost Egypt).
As I said before, the Sassanids are definitely the most likely to step into that vacuum, even if they don't manage to fully recreate the empire of Cyrus, they would still be able to essentially occupy about 85% of the Eastern empire and truly become a superpower rivaled only by China. No Arab conquests as they would be nowhere near strong enough to defeat these buffed up Persians who haven't exhausted themselves fighting against Rome and have entrenched themselves into the East.
Don't expect the Sassanids to fall so soon either, in fact they will definitely endure much more and try to expand their borders to secure Anatolia, Caucasus and Central Asia.
If they regained Africa, the WRE will absolutely go on a counter offensive in Gaul and Hispania, with fairly good likelihoods of success. Germanic rule there was quite volatile.