If Thomas Quiwonkpa's 1985 attempted coup against his former ally Samuel Doe had succeeded, would it have butterflied a Liberian civil war? On the one hand, Doe was the main influence behind Liberia's slide into anarchy, and Quiwonkpa promised free elections (after massively fraudulent ones) at a point when civil society was still a powerful force. On the other hand, most African coup leaders make similar promises, and a case could be made that the oncoming civil war was too late to stop by that point. If Quiwonkpa had been successful, would the war have been forestalled, or would it simply have had a new actor?
If Thomas Quiwonkpa's Coup Attempt Had Succeeded, Would it Have Butterflied the Liberian Civil War?
- Thread starter frustrated progressive
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I looked at this possibility for a timeline some years ago and suspect that Kru elites in Monrovia would have taken up arms against any threat to their privileges. While Quiwonkpa may receive international recognition, I believe that he would struggle to hold the capital and his survival would be dependent on a broad alliance of non-Krahn ethnicities.
I'm afraid I don't have that much knowledge about this; my one source, Africa: A History of the Continent Since Independence, covered the matter of the Doe regime in about 20 pages. So you're saying that the old influence network basically survived intact under the Doe regime? Would Quiwonkpa have been ale to sway them to his side, and if so, would the effects of the resultant corruption made a civil war inevitable? As for the second matter, would Quiwonkpa have plausibly been able to build a broad ethnic coalition?
I admit my knowledge of Africa is likewise limited, except for the works of Martin Meredith. However, I note that Doe had the support of the armed forces and the presidential guard, many of whom were siphoning off the national treasury to advance the interests of one tribal group. With Doe dead, the outcome of any version of successful coup, then we get those with the power, wealth and weapons told to surrender them. In African politics, that is a death sentence and they will fight back.
Once the uniting hatred of Doe is gone, there is literally nothing to bind his opponents. And with both Ivory Coast and Sierra Leone having affiliations with various Liberian tribal groups (and a desire to interfere), and a guaranteed squabble over any spoils, I see civil war as the only possible reality for post-Doe Liberia, first against Doe loyalists in the military and then turning against each other to control the spoils.
Once the uniting hatred of Doe is gone, there is literally nothing to bind his opponents. And with both Ivory Coast and Sierra Leone having affiliations with various Liberian tribal groups (and a desire to interfere), and a guaranteed squabble over any spoils, I see civil war as the only possible reality for post-Doe Liberia, first against Doe loyalists in the military and then turning against each other to control the spoils.