If The Western Roman Empire Survived And The East Perished

[Rogue Navigator]

So obviously in terms of who would collapse first, the odds were always stacked in favour of the richer and more populous eastern half of the Roman Empire. But what if the Western Roman Empire, perhaps under a surviving Majorian for example, succeeds in not only reclaiming North Africa from the Vandals, but dealing with the traitorous Ricimer and stabalising the Western Empire. While the Eastern Empire has much poorer luck, perhaps a succession of weak rulers or regencies mixed in with incursions across the Danube and successful Sassanian invasions, both of whom divide the failing Eastern Roman empire amongst themselves.

Obviously the ramifications of this affect or too many to count and this is such a massive butterfly effect, but what would be the major cultural, political, demographic and religious consequences of such a dramatic reversal of fortunes for both halves of the Roman world?

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

Papal supremacy is never seriously challenged- instead of a pentarchy system, the western emperor simply names the pope the clear spiritual head of the Christian world- on the other hand, having a strong western emperor means that the popes authority is never anything but a tool for the emperor.

The more doctrinally unified west never has to spend that much energy on compromise doctrines, meaning that political capital can be spent on military matters.

The east’s many barbarian successor kingdoms all adopt different flavours of Christianity or alt islams. The Balkans might go initially Arian by the goths and then paganise on Slavic arrivals- the rechristianisation likely sees them return to Rome though.

A functional west means that latins remains a unified dialect area with only the one written standard while Hellenic languages might emerge in Anatolia, the Levant and the southern Balkans. Would be really cool to see isaurian survive and maybe spread a bit- it could end up a sort of indo European basque equivalent, surviving in a mountainous borderland.

Without access to the commodities of the east though, the west has to fall back on simple solid agriculture- they’d at least want a friendly regime installed in Egypt to try and get a connection to the Red Sea trade.

 

[Silvaria]

The West doing dramatically better and the East doing dramatically worse looks less like OTL in reverse and more like the slow decline of Eastern Rome after the 4th Crusade, except that it's effectively a vassal state of the West (which it was kind of becoming anyway). Most likely, you see a slow retrenchment and rollback across Anatolia.

Islam is *dramatically* different - the nearly thousand year struggle against Rome defined it on a profound level, and that simply won't there now that Rome is in, well, Rome (aka a thousand miles westward as opposed to the heart of the Empire). Probably not butterflied, but it's definitely different, especially if the West maintains at least Egypt. Probably the Empire consolidates into something like Southern France, Italia, the Balkans, and maybe holds Constantinople but doesn't hold much of Anatolia, which is far more divided but ironically, remains Christian due to the fact that it's simply not as inviting a target for Islam, which maybe focus on expanding Eastward.

 

[Collondi]

For the POD that ends the ERE, I’d say simply getting rid of the Hephtalytes or having them defeated earlier should do the trick, leaving the Sassanids strong enough to exploit a weak ERE

The east’s many barbarian successor kingdoms all adopt different flavours of Christianity or alt islams. The Balkans might go initially Arian by the goths and then paganise on Slavic arrivals- the rechristianisation likely sees them return to Rome though

There probably wouldn’t be nearly as many barbarian kingdoms carving up the ERE. The Sassanids would take Egypt and the near east, Anatolia falls either also to the Sassanids or to whoever takes Constantinople (I’m leaning towards Theodoric, since he was quite powerful and doesn’t have an Italy for the emperor to send him to, and also it adds to the reversal-of-fates thing). That just leaves the Balkans to be carved up by invaders.

If we assume the WRE enters the 6th century relatively strong, controlling Italy and Africa and at least some of Spain and Gaul, there’s not going to be a Justinian-esque reconquest of Constantinople because the Persians are so much stronger ITTL. Constantinople needs to rely on support from the WRE, which would mean that the goths would be an actual vassal of Rome instead of just paying lip service to vasselage. The 6th century is going to see a lot of war between Rome and Persia. Persia has the advantage because they have fewer enemies to worry about, but they might have their king-of-kings overthrown and go into a civil war at some point, like what happened to Khosrow II. Rome’s situation would be very precarious

Also Islam or at least Islam as we know it would almost certainly be butterflied away because a) Christianity’s influence in Arabia will be much smaller without the ERE and b) without the ERE every important trading center in the Arabian peninsula is conquered by the Sassanids. Any attempt by any prophet to take control would be immediately crushed.

 

[raharris1973]

A functional west means that latins remains a unified dialect area with only the one written standard while Hellenic languages might emerge in Anatolia, the Levant and the southern Balkans.

Hellenic languages fragmenting in those eastern areas? What about Gothic, Germanic, Slavic ones as well, based on the barbarian influx? And where would they intermix with, or divide the land demographically with Persian and Arab influxes?

Probably the Empire consolidates into something like Southern France, Italia, the Balkans,

Why is the surviving west under Majorian losing northern France, Spain, North Africa.

For the POD that ends the ERE, I’d say simply getting rid of the Hephtalytes or having them defeated earlier should do the trick, leaving the Sassanids strong enough to exploit a weak ERE

Not a bad idea.

Anatolia falls either also to the Sassanids or to whoever takes Constantinople (I’m leaning towards Theodoric, since he was quite powerful and doesn’t have an Italy for the emperor to send him to, and also it adds to the reversal-of-fates thing).

Theodoric's Ostrogothic Kingdom is now instead Constantinople, eastern Thrace, and Anatolia, instead of Italy and Dalmatia and Pannonia?

 

[Putnam]

So obviously in terms of who would collapse first, the odds were always stacked in favour of the richer and more populous eastern half of the Roman Empire. But what if the Western Roman Empire, perhaps under a surviving Majorian for example, succeeds in not only reclaiming North Africa from the Vandals, but dealing with the traitorous Ricimer and stabalising the Western Empire. While the Eastern Empire has much poorer luck, perhaps a succession of weak rulers or regencies mixed in with incursions across the Danube and successful Sassanian invasions, both of whom divide the failing Eastern Roman empire amongst themselves.

Obviously the ramifications of this affect or too many to count and this is such a massive butterfly effect, but what would be the major cultural, political, demographic and religious consequences of such a dramatic reversal of fortunes for both halves of the Roman world?

Here's an idea: You never said the Eastern Half has to be crippled in the late 5th or early 6th centuries (that wouldn't be very easy anyway since the Empire was recovering from the disasters of the 5th century during that time).

Here's a rough timeline:

Majorian recovers the West, making for a surviving WRE. The ERE on the other hand basically follows a similar path to OTL during the late 5th and early 6th centuries. The Goths are ultimately dealt with in a joint East-West campaign and the remnants are mostly settled in the West.

Things begin to change is with Justinian. Since the West never fell, his ideological raison d'etre needs to change. While in OTL Justinian wished to restore the West, ITTL he wishes to reunify the Empire under his sole rule (simply put: One Empire, One Emperor).

During the 530s Justinian declares war on the West and easily takes North Africa in a lucky break, however, Italy is not so easily taken, just as in OTL, due to the general popularity of Majorian's dynasty. The East also has to deal with the historical Persian invasions. This is right up until the Plague strikes, basically reducing both sides' ability to fight to near nothing, making Italy a practical stalemate during the 540s. During the 550s Justinian just narrowly succeeds in taking Italy, but has little ability to do much else, beyond a partial conquest of Hispania.

The period from 565-602 is mostly the same, especially on the Eastern Front. The Western Empire, being too weakened to take Italy on their own due to the Plague, recruits the Lombards to help them. They are partially successful, but the Eastern Empire successfully controls many coastal cities and most of the South.

The 7th Century is mostly about the East being wracked by Persian invasion and the West attempting to recover their position in the West, while attempting to reign in the Lombards. After defeating the Persians and recovering the Eastern Provinces, Heraclius dies, leaving the Empire to far less competent heirs than OTL. The Arabs, instead of conquering the East as OTL, do to the East what the Germans did to the West OTL. With the East wracked by war and plague and severely depopulated, the Arabs are welcomed by the Eastern Emperors, however, the Arabs maintain their tribal cohesion and identities and take over the Levant, Egypt, and Anatolia. While the Slavs take over the Balkans in a very similar fashion. This basically recreates the West's 5th Century in the East during the 7th Century.

Basically almost the entire Eastern Empire controlled by foreign tribes and the West is both disinterested and incapable of intervening. Eventually, during the 7th century, a Slavic general does away with the the Imperial System in Constantinople.

By the end of the 7th century the Western Empire has successfully retaken Hispania, North Africa, and Italy, barely, and the early 8th century the Western Empire slowly and limply recovering economically until the final major bout of plague happens. From then on the West begins to fully recover its strength. During the 9th century sees the Reconquest of the Balkans from the Slavic Kingdom there, centered around Thessaloniki (Constantinople is largely reduced to its past as the city of Byzantium, with its city walls dismantled). They also recover Anatolia as well by the end of the 9th Century.

 

[Mr. Hoovervelt]

Majorian recovers the West, making for a surviving WRE. The ERE on the other hand basically follows a similar path to OTL during the late 5th and early 6th centuries. The Goths are ultimately dealt with in a joint East-West campaign and the remnants are mostly settled in the West.

Things begin to change is with Justinian. Since the West never fell, his ideological raison d'etre needs to change. While in OTL Justinian wished to restore the West, ITTL he wishes to reunify the Empire under his sole rule (simply put: One Empire, One Emperor).

Justinian was born 20 years after Majorian's reign, I doubt he'd even exist TTL

 

[Putnam]

Justinian was born 20 years after Majorian's reign, I doubt he'd even exist TTL

Matter of opinion.

Also, it was a rough outline of an idea for a timeline written at 4AM. Cut me some slack, Jack!

 

[Count Romanus]

Also, it was a rough outline of an idea for a timeline written at 4AM. Cut me some slack, Jack!

Relax man your timeline was very good! i've sketched an idea of a rough timeline in my mind which starts from the reign of Anthemius instead of Majorian. here it is: Anthemius succeeds in his campaign to retake Africa which is absorbed back into the WRE as a Province. Anthemius turns his attention to the Visigoths in Gaul and beats them in battle and regains access to Hispania. Ricimer Anthemius' son in law and Magister Militum rebels against Anthemius but is defeated and executed for treason, his wife Alypia Anthemius' daughter is given in marriege to Julius Nepos the nephew of Marcellinus Anthemius' other Magister Militum and the troops of northern Gaul under Syagrius are brought back into the Empire. Meanwhile in the east Leo i dies and is succeded by his grandson Leo ii who dies not too long after and is succeded by his father Zeno, however Basiliscus Leo i's brother in law and Marcianus Anthemius' son oppose Zeno's rule. this plunges the east into a long devastating period of civil war and unrest as barbarians including the Goths take advantage of the eastern Empire's weakness and devastate Imperial territory. The western Empire however prospers under the rule of Anthemius and his successors who work the Empire towards recovery. and lastly Justinian never becomes eastern Emperor as Justin i does not take the throne for himself and eventually the eastern Empire takes the toll of it's blows and collapses. The western Empire at the time of it's counterpart's demise has retaken Hispania, most of it's territory in Gaul and some of the Illyrian Provinces and it's Emperor's authority is secure.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

Justinian's western campaigns being too costly and ruining the Eastern Empire is something of a trope, however the problem seems to have been the plague and the Persian war. Very limited resources were committed to the western campaign, with the bulk of the army kept east to face the Persians. This is why the Italian wars took so long.

I thought the first three posts were solid on the POD and speculation as to the effects.

A stronger Sassanian empire might adopt Islam peacefully, without the conquests, or Mazdaism could morph into something similar.

Note there is an argument that the fall of the Western empire was beneficial to the development of Western civilization. The peasantry got a huge break with getting the landlords and tax collectors off their backs. There is evidence that their living standards improved -the Dark Ages were "dark" largely due to the lack of written records.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

Also, a similar situation developed in China. With the fall of the early Jin, more developed northern China was divided into "barbarian" kingdoms. The imperial dynasties survived in much less developed southern China.

China was reunified in the late 6th century by a half-barbarian family that took over one of the northern Chinese kingdoms. The development of the south got a boost from northern refugees.

However, the lack of an equivalent to the Sassanians and rise of Islam makes this situation considerably different. It would be as if the Koreans took over most of northern China in the 5th and 6th centuries.

 

[Mr. Hoovervelt]

For the east, one POD would be Leo I dying somewhere around 466 before the birth of Leo the Younger. Leo is replaced by Olybrius (who had previously served as eastern consul) Zeno does not accept Olybrius as legitimate and rebels. Olybrius tries to subdue the revolt but is unable to do so and is eventually deposed by Zeno, who then has Aspar and his family executed. Inflamed by the death of his patron Aspar, Theodoric Strabo invades the Empire, managing to conquer most ofThrace and Macedonia, but is unable to breach Constantinople due to the walls. Zeno is then deposed by Basiliscus, and flees to Isauria. The Gepids invade Moesia Inferior, and, with the loss of Thrace and Macedonia to Theodoric Strabo, they meet little resistance. Meanwhile, Peroz I, seeing the weakened state, decides to invade the Eastern Empire (instead of invading the Hephthalites like he did OTL)
With the empire in civil war, he sees some sucess, conquering Syria, Palestine and parts of eastern Anatolia from 472 to 480. With Egypt split away from the Empire's control, it too is eventually conquered around 490. Strabo's kingdom would be divided among his descendants, and the Moesian part of it would eventually be conquered by the Antae Slavs, reducing Gothic control in the Balkans to Greece and Bosnia.
Then the plague hits, which devastates both the Sassanians and the Eastern Roman Empire, but to a lesser extent the West. The Hephatalites would manage to conquer Khorasan, the overextended Sassanid Iran would lose control over Egypt and the Levant to the Arab Ghassasids, while the Caucasian Alans invade Anatolia, conquering the northwestern part of the reigon. I'm not sure that Constantinople would fall at this time, the Theodosian Walls are too fortified to be breached by any barbarian invader.I'm not sure that the Rise of Islam would happen, it's more than a century after the POD, so the butterfly effect makes it improbable to happen.
I can't speculate any further onwards from this point.

 

[Putnam]

Justinian's western campaigns being too costly and ruining the Eastern Empire is something of a trope, however the problem seems to have been the plague and the Persian war. Very limited resources were committed to the western campaign, with the bulk of the army kept east to face the Persians. This is why the Italian wars took so long.

Agreed, but I wanted to keep things as close to OTL as possible.

 

[raharris1973]

The peasantry got a huge break with getting the landlords and tax collectors off their backs. There is evidence that their living standards improved -the Dark Ages were "dark" largely due to the lack of written records.

I can buy getting tax collectors off their backs, but landlords? I thought landlords/large landowners became ever more dominant, serfdom became more dominant, not free peasant status, as people needed landlord protection. Free peasant status tends to depend on a strong bureaucracy keep big landowners in check. I had heard something about average heights increasing in Carolingian times compared to Roman or high medieval.

 

[Count Romanus]

It really depends in what way, shape, or form, that the WRE survives as. let's say that it survives in the form it was during the reigns of Valentinian III and Majorian, it would have a much better chance of surviving, while there are many that say there was no possible way for the WRE to survive once it was reduced to Italy, i disagree, Odoacer and Theodoric both ruled the Italian peninsula without encountering the problems that the Western Emperors before them had. probably because by the time they had taken power, Italy was already on the road to recovery. but the question is: if the WRE is to survive in the form it was in AD 476, how does it keep from being taken over by barbarian Kings in TTL? either Julius Nepos somehow doesn't get ejected from Italy or Romulus Augustulus manages to put down Odoacer's rebellion, as for the Eastern Empire falling, there are many ideas that could be put to use.