If Tamerlane destroys the Ottomans, who is most likely to capture Constantinople?

[The Undead Martyr]

Byzantine revival is naturally one of the more popular ideas on this site, but all things considered, even if the Greek Goose wasn't totally cooked, after the 1341-47 civil war they were very clearly in a tailspin, and more often than not IMO the Empire would have been conquered by someone.
That being the case, I am narrowing the prompt in two ways- first, using a PoD circa the Battle of Ankara, with Tamerlane and his successors finishing off the Ottomans completely, and secondly I am asking specifically who will be the most likely to conquer Constantinople; the Morea may or may not survive as an independent state.

For my money, I'd say either Tamerlane himself does the job (or his heirs) or either Hungary or Venice put the Empire out of its misery.

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

What do we mean by Timur destroys the ottomans completely? As in he kills all of Bayezids sons? Leads armies into Europe to chase Suleyman from Edirne? That sounds like a massive investment considering he only has three years left to live.

Most likely it'll still be the ottomans, even if they find the timurids have settled into Anatolia, cutting them off from their Turkish base

 

[Arariboia Guamá]

Serbia seems like quite likely, weren't they kind of gearing for a conquest of Constantinople during the time?
With a Serbian conquest, we would probably have a new, revitalized foreign dynasty ruling the empire.

Bulgaria is also a strong contender, and considering how often they intermarried, there might be a pretty legit claimant to the purple in one of their Tzars.

Would Tamerlane even try to conquer Constantinople? He had eyes for China. Seems more logical that he makes the Emperor pay tribute and he does, because the ERE is used to steppe conquerors by now. Tamerlane is nothing new to them.


Foreigners conquering the ERE and creating a new dynasty of the old Empire is actually very China-like.

 

[Evil Crusader]

I think Timurids, Bulgaria and the Beyliks - in decreasing order of likelihood - are the best candidates: the ones that have both the reason and the means to outright absorb the ailing polity.
Venice and Serbia have the means, but probably benefit more from NOT getting ahold of the City, because they're not well-equipped to cope with the pressures of holding it (too far from Serbia's core, too restive and exposed that it'd be a drain upon Venice).
Hungary probably doesn't have the means - needs to punch through Serbia and/or Bulgaria first - and suffers from the above sentence's stated challenges, but probably more pronounced due to geographical distance.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

If the Ottomans completely fall apart, then I don't see why anyone would try and take the city. It's still a huge fortress. Instead, Byzantines might limp on as a quasi city-state, maybe going more mercantile.

 

[AsukaEMP]

Somehow no votes (besides my own) for Wallachia even though 1. they were an actual independent state in 1402, something which can't be said for some of the more popular picks, and 2. they were already fighting a fairly successful war against the Ottomans, and would continue to do so for decades.

 

[Mildtryth]

I figure that a Ottoman collapse will probably revitalize the remnants of Serbia and Bulgaria, but if Constantinople has to be taken, i'd bet on Serbia getting there first. but I'm not too positive that might happen, since Byzantium would definitely try to take advantage of the situation to regain some land.

 

[PeterEzgo]

I'm surprised that Poland/Poland-Lithuania is one of the options. That would take some doing. I'd like to read a TL on that for the oddness more than anything else.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Somehow no votes (besides my own) for Wallachia even though 1. they were an actual independent state in 1402, something which can't be said for some of the more popular picks, and 2. they were already fighting a fairly successful war against the Ottomans, and would continue to do so for decades.

Wallachia hardly is strong enough to project power in an offensive way, its heyday of the time was 'comfortably surviving'.
While they would go on to survive, they always were on the defensive, on all fronts.

 

[AsukaEMP]

Wallachia hardly is strong enough to project power in an offensive way, its heyday of the time was 'comfortably surviving'.
While they would go on to survive, they always were on the defensive, on all fronts.

In the period OP's talking about prince Mircea launched several invasions across the Danube, conquered Dobruja, supported a Bulgarian rebellion, and (a little later) helped Musa Celebi to defeat Suleyman and take the Ottoman throne... I wouldn't call that "comfortably surviving" or "being on the defensive".

 

[Evil Crusader]

In the period OP's talking about prince Mircea launched several invasions across the Danube, conquered Dobruja, supported a Bulgarian rebellion, and (a little later) helped Musa Celebi to defeat Suleyman and take the Ottoman throne... I wouldn't call that "comfortably surviving" or "being on the defensive".

That was their highest point, and they still were more enabled by everybody else's weakness than their own strength. So yes, I'll stand by my point, Wallachia in no way shape or form can move out of its core domain to seize Constantinople and/or hold it.

 

[Grey Wolf]

It falls to Persia in 1600 after Persia has over-run all of Anatolia

 

[how]

Where is the option for no one to capture Constantinople?

 

[Silver01]

Serbia seems like quite likely, weren't they kind of gearing for a conquest of Constantinople during the time?

the pod is 1402 the serbian empire has been destroyed by this point

 

[Raferty]

I think there might genuinely be a chance of a Byzantine survival (in a much diminished shape) if the Ottomans are destroyed. It could be that the Turkish Beyliks unify and then you'd have the same problem, but I think with the renewal of Crusading in the 14th-15th century, its quite possible Asia Minor sees a successful crusade and they lose substantial power - in OTL the Ottomans were very much challenged by the Crusading efforts and suffered significant losses before prevailing. The reason I'm more bullish on the Byzantines is because they received substantial lands in the Treaty of Gallipoli and would have had the Ottomans been destroyed gotten much more, almost by default, while being able to play the dominant Italian maritime powers off of each other to secure their position. Its not so much that I think they would have some glorious revival as there would be a vacuum in the region in which they would be one power of many to help to fill.

The Bulgarians and Serbians were badly broken by the Ottoman conquests and I am not so sure that it would be a revival in the making of the status quo of the pre-1346 era - there were forced population transfers that harmed the basis of those states and their militarized nobility would have been decimated by the Timurid full destruction of the Ottomans.

I think however that if the Timurids could beat the Ottomans in full and destroy them, there is nothing to stop them from taking Constantinople and they would be the most likely. There would be no counterforce to pose a real threat to Tamerlane - a European Crusade is not likely to be in the making so soon after Nicopolis, either.

I don't think Venice or Genoa would be capable - but if they were, it would almost certainly be from taking sides in a Byzantine civil war, which would remain the biggest threat to Byzantium.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

I've always been under the impression that part of the reason the Ottomans took over Constantinople was something along the lines of manifest destiny - the Ottoman leadership believed it was their divine right and destiny to take the city over. I'm not sure other groups feel that way to that extent?

If that's the case, the biggest post-Ottoman threat may be the same thing that was generally the ERE's biggest threat - a pretender to the throne launching a civil war.

 

[GameBawesome]

IMO, I don't think it'd be the Timurids. If I remember correctly, Timur was more focused East, to the point where he tried to invade the Ming Dynasty (And died due to sickness). If anyone were to take Constantinople, I'd say either 1. the Bulgarians, 2. the Serbians or 3. the Hungarians.

 

[Arariboia Guamá]

An important question: What is the situation here?

Because AFAIK:
1. Musa Çelebi was captured by the Ottomans in the Battle of Ankara and later freed at the request of his brother Mehmed Çelebi
2. Suleyman Çelebi was in the Battle of Ankara, and he was rescued by Stefan Lazarevic and his serbians
3. Mehmed was also in the battle, being rescued by Bayezid Pasha
4. Mustafa was taken prisioner by Tamerlane as well and spent years in Samarkand
5. AFAIK Isa escaped the Battle of Ankara.
6. There is also Yusuf Çelebi. Seems like the converted to Christianity and changed his name to Demetrios. Anyone knows what's up with this guy?
7. There is also Kasım Çelebi who was sent as a hostage to Constantinople together with his sister Fatma Hutun. What's up with this one?

I'm assuming the idea here is that the entire royal family except Yusuf and Kasim dies here in the Battle of Ankara?
Seems like, assuming a total TPK, only Yusuf and Kasim survive. Do they have the age to take over the Throne, can they even do that?
What would make Timur kill all of them, instead of at least one alive to be his vassal? Or do they all die in battle?

Do Stefan Lazarevic and his men survive? Timur seems to have respected him a great deal, so he might spare him.

There is also a quite interesting possibility of a revolt by Sheikh Bedreddin.

the pod is 1402 the serbian empire has been destroyed by this point

Damn, you're right. I did some reading and got a better picture.

I've read up and yeah, seems like Serbia is no position to take such enterprise circa 1402.

If Stefan Lazarevic survives the Battle of Ankara, he would still be in charge.
Stefan woud pledge loyalty to the crown of Hungary two years later, so he would probably the same to prevent any turkish warlords from attacking Serbia.
Hungary is looking more and more like the big cheese here.

 

[AsukaEMP]

That was their highest point

And OP is literally asking about this exact point in time, so...

and they still were more enabled by everybody else's weakness than their own strength.

And? The whole point of this thread is that Timur "destroys" the Ottomans, which I'm pretty sure implies they get screwed even harder than otl and don't stand back up. Mircea proved he was capable of expanding Wallachia across the Danube in otl's situation so there's no reason to believe he couldn't do more in this scenario, setting up Wallachia with a larger powerbase for further expansion later on. Not to mention that with the fractured state of the Serbs and Bulgarians at the time Wallachia was by no means a weak power in the Balkans to begin with.​

 

[Evil Crusader]

And OP is literally asking about this exact point in time, so...

And? The whole point of this thread is that Timur "destroys" the Ottomans, which I'm pretty sure implies they get screwed even harder than otl and don't stand back up. Mircea proved he was capable of expanding Wallachia across the Danube in otl's situation so there's no reason to believe he couldn't do more in this scenario, setting up Wallachia with a larger powerbase for further expansion later on. Not to mention that with the fractured state of the Serbs and Bulgarians at the time Wallachia was by no means a weak power in the Balkans to begin with.​

Yes, OP is talking about the point in which Wallachia has been attacked four times in ten years, Mircea himself lost the throne once, and when the Interregnum happened, and he helped install a friendly ruler, all he managed to get was freedom and Dobruja. It speaks to the weakness of the Ottomans, but also of Wallachia.
If the Ottomans are truly gone, then Bulgaria naturally reforms, as it has done time and again; it will probably be a Wallachian protectorate at first, but nothing more, most definitely not a province - in fact subjugating parts of it, now that the alternative is not Turkish rule, may prove harder than expected. I would expect a border close to the Balkan range as a reasonable (non-Wank) outcome; especially with Serbia certainly sponsoring Constantine II's claims over Bulgaria and likely taking South and West Bulgaria for itself to an even bigger extent than OTL - where they already outdid Wallachia.
Then if we want to discuss 'can Wank Wallachia get more while everybody gets screwed' the answer is 'yes', but that doesn't make Wallachia a prime candidate.