I'm making an Alternate History on the Napoleonic Wars but I wasn't sure about the Polish-Russian boarder. So how much land would Poland get from Russia realistically? And would Lithuania be included because Napoleon did form a Lithuanian Government during his Invasion of Russia to which it even merged with the Polish Confederation.
If Napoleon won, how big would Poland be?
- Thread starter Masterknife7
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Most of the board agrees, that Napoleon was unable to beat Russia. If we just ignore that "little niuance" answer is something, that ranges from 1772 to 1619 PLC's border.
Probably should have shown my Alternate History first https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-napoleon-victory-scenario.522519/
Besides what already had been said by @Jan Olbracht about plausibility of the whole enterprise [1], the problem is that Napoleon never clearly formulated political goals of this campaign even on the level of adherence to the CS. AFAIK, there is no written “political program” and even Caulaincourt, IIRC, did not report something definite.
Now, if he really wanted to expand the Duchy, he could easily do so earlier at the Austrian expense by adding Galicia but expansion was much more modest. He could add the Royal Prussia with Gdansk but he did not.
So I’m not sure if there is a definite answer to your question based upon his known actions and upon his unknown plans.
If the idea in 1812 was to show Alexander who is the boss (by that time there was a serious diplomatic quarrel with the waves reaching many European courts) then the Duchy gets nothing because a subdued Alexander is more important than the happy Poles. If the idea is something else, then any number of guesses are possible. But, AFAIK, he was not trying to establish Polish administration in Smolensk (not sure about Vytebsk) so here you definitely have a limit. You can check if anything of the kind had been done in Vilno to get factual material for the further guesses.
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[1] With which I mostly (as “for 99%”) agree, there is always a small chance for “s—t happens” scenario (based upon which Nappy planned his campaign). Something monumentally stupid like Alexander insisting on the Drissa Plan and as a result him and the 1st Russian army are being “Sedaned” close to the border.
I'm sorry but not all of the board agrees that Napoleon couldn't beat Russia. With the strategy he applied, then yes. But if he reduces the amount of troops sent to the Duchy of Warsaw and doesn't formally ally with Austria and/or Prussia, then the Russians might not be spooked and actually attack in the Grand-Duchy. This would be more of a fair fight but one Napoleon could win and if the Russian armies are defeated in the Grand-Duchy and at the Russian border, then a favorable peace against Russia can be attained.
@alexmilman should probably weigh in.
Regarding how big, in such a limited win scenario I don't see Poland getting anything bigger than what was lost during the Third Partition (and even then, I would say without Lithuania.)
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Honestly, I really don't know if Napoleon had any intention of restoring Poland-Lithuania. My theory on why Napoleon created the Lithuanian Government is that Napoleon wanted to use the possibility of him restoring Poland-Lithuania as a bargaining chip. See, Napoleon actually refused to declare the restoration of the Kingdom of Poland. And considering Napoleon was probably aware of the Tsars fear of a resurgent Poland, I think he wanted to threaten to restore Poland-Lithuania to scare the Tsar into serving in Napoleon's interests.
Because Alexander opposed it. Alexander had Polish fixation and in his own opinion was the only man, who could restore Kingdom of Poland.