If Germany and Russia both go red, is Eastern Europe doomed to be partitioned?

If by say 1921 there exists a communist Germany on one side and the Soviet Union on the other, is there any way for Czechoslovakia, Poland, and the Baltics* to survive as fortress nations? Or will they inevitably be partitioned/ turned into satellite communist regimes?

*I’m including a remnant German Empire based in East Prussia as well.
 
Not necessarily, this is one of the most likely scenarios where some kind of Intermarium can actually work. Personally, I think Polish-Czechoslovak antagonism is the biggest variable when it comes to preserving the sovereignty of states trapped in-between Berlin and Moscow. If you get the Poles and Czechs to cooperate against their common enemies, then you'll have the core of a somewhat more workable collective security system to enforce the Versailles order.

- You haven't specified whether or not this communist Germany has militarized the Rhine-Ruhr area, but I figure a communist Germany is getting far less in the way of appeasement than Germany OTL, and won't be able to gobble up Austria, Czechoslovakia, and the Sudetenland without a fight.

- Pan-Germanism is a far less attractive proposition to various socioeconomic groups of German speakers outside of Germany's borders if it means OTL communist policies like crackdowns on the clergy (Catholic and Protestant), the collectivization of Prussian Junkers' estates, etc. Germany will probably have a harder time weaponizing minority rights claims to justify territorial expansion.

- Will you still get some sort of great purge in the USSR, Germany, or both? The would-be ruling elite of the communist satellites, and the leadership of the Polish, Hungarian, etc. would look totally different without the purges that devastated the comintern in the '30s. A lot of the big names in OTL communists governments could end up executed, instead of just imprisoned for a few years (Milovan Djilas, Nicolae Ceausescu, etc.) if their home countries' governments engage in more brutal repression of domestic communist movements during the '20s and '30s.
 
Not necessarily, this is one of the most likely scenarios where some kind of Intermarium can actually work. Personally, I think Polish-Czechoslovak antagonism is the biggest variable when it comes to preserving the sovereignty of states trapped in-between Berlin and Moscow. If you get the Poles and Czechs to cooperate against their common enemies, then you'll have the core of a somewhat more workable collective security system to enforce the Versailles order.

- You haven't specified whether or not this communist Germany has militarized the Rhine-Ruhr area, but I figure a communist Germany is getting far less in the way of appeasement than Germany OTL, and won't be able to gobble up Austria, Czechoslovakia, and the Sudetenland without a fight.

- Pan-Germanism is a far less attractive proposition to various socioeconomic groups of German speakers outside of Germany's borders if it means OTL communist policies like crackdowns on the clergy (Catholic and Protestant), the collectivization of Prussian Junkers' estates, etc. Germany will probably have a harder time weaponizing minority rights claims to justify territorial expansion.

- Will you still get some sort of great purge in the USSR, Germany, or both? The would-be ruling elite of the communist satellites, and the leadership of the Polish, Hungarian, etc. would look totally different without the purges that devastated the comintern in the '30s. A lot of the big names in OTL communists governments could end up executed, instead of just imprisoned for a few years (Milovan Djilas, Nicolae Ceausescu, etc.) if their home countries' governments engage in more brutal repression of domestic communist movements during the '20s and '30s.

The borders I had in my head were for Germany to lose Posen, East Prussia, and everything west of the Rhine, but gaining Austria and Czechia in the revolution. Hungary would also be a communist state. That probably makes it extraordinarily difficult for the Intermarium region to survive, so Austria, Czechia and Hungary are still on the table if needed.

Something akin to Stalin's great purge is most likely not happening, I'm more picturing Germany ittl to be authoritarian and have a brief Terror period, but to be a flawed democracy in the end. It could still happen in the *Soviet Union, I suppose, but it would face some critique from Germany. The Soviet Union accepted German leadership in the relationship during the twenties, as expected, but as the Soviet Union industrialized they're more or less equal partners. No Socialism in One Country ittl. That being said I would still imagine there being harder repression of communist movements outside the Comintern due to Eastern Europe feeling trapped and the Entente watching the Reds from across the Rhine.
 
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A scenario just as plausible is what if France goes red right after WWII. The French Communists were a large part of the Resistance and thought about taking over immediately after de Gaulle stepped foot in Paris in August 1944.

I can't see a Communist Germany in the Weimar period though. The German Communists weren't likely to win and hold a coalition for very long. They had very few allies in other parties. Communism in Germany did about as well as it could IRL with East Germany post-WWII, before it collapsed along with the Wall. The best the Communists did in the Weimar period was 16.9% of the vote, a 3rd place finish, in 1932. In the 1920s the best they did was 4th place
 
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kham_coc

Banned
Yeah, with British and French protection it is absolutely inconceivable that Poland might get invaded... oh wait :D
Yeah, i mean you can question whether or not a putative commie Germany would be as reckless as the nazis, and whether or not they have the army behind them (personally, i think that it would be) but going by OTL - Germany/USSR is certainly capable of controlling Europe, and the only hope for that not happening is if the German communists get annoyed with Stalin, but TBH, just as there wasn't a Sino-Soviet war, I doubt there would have been a German Soviet war.
 
Yeah, i mean you can question whether or not a putative commie Germany would be as reckless as the nazis, and whether or not they have the army behind them (personally, i think that it would be) but going by OTL - Germany/USSR is certainly capable of controlling Europe, and the only hope for that not happening is if the German communists get annoyed with Stalin, but TBH, just as there wasn't a Sino-Soviet war, I doubt there would have been a German Soviet war.
Why do you think Stalin's rise is a historical inevitability?
 
It is a distinct possibility in any scenario regardless of what shade of red, white or brown Germany or Russia are. But I don't think it is inevitable. The Ribbentrop-Molotov pact and the Sino-Soviet split prove that ideology does not determine foreign policy. I could imagine a communist Germany arming more slowly than OTL being so afraid of Soviet rearmament that it prefers to co-operate with the capitalist states against Moscow.
 
It is a distinct possibility in any scenario regardless of what shade of red, white or brown Germany or Russia are. But I don't think it is inevitable. The Ribbentrop-Molotov pact and the Sino-Soviet split prove that ideology does not determine foreign policy. I could imagine a communist Germany arming more slowly than OTL being so afraid of Soviet rearmament that it prefers to co-operate with the capitalist states against Moscow.
I certainly wouldn't assume a Communist Germany and a Communist Russia would be allies - they were enemies when they were both dynastic autarchies.

After all, Marx and Engels weren't writing about Russia but Germany when they imagined the political and economic progression to a Communist state. The mantle of the "leaders of world communism" might be assumed by Moscow but Berlin would have equal claim and I suspect before long obscure philosophical differences would become didactic splits - akin to the splitting of the Catholic Church in the 11th century.

As @Zaius points out, ideology doesn't determine foreign policy. That said, it's hard not to agree it would be hard to re-create the speed of re-armament of the Nazi era under another political regime. I also think the West would be more willing to defend Versailles (and the notions of reparations and keeping the German armed forces weak) if Berlin was under the Red Flag rather than the swastika.

It has impacts on Moscow too - whether you believe every Russian leader thinks they are Peter the Great or wants to emulate Tsar Alexander, the notion of propagating world communism on a single model is in tatters. No Internationale here, it would seem. Instead, there would be increasingly verbose and vitriolic mutual condemnation of the "pseudo-bourgeois revisionists" or the "Soviet State Imperialists" on the other.

Poland's position, between two increasingly antagonistic powers, might push it more to the West than in OTL and you would see Anglo-French diplomacy more active.

Perhaps, with more German help on the side of the Republicans, the Francoist uprising is quickly defeated and Spain moves more to the Left politically in the late 30s but aligned with Germany. Throw Italy into the mix - how does Fascist Italy deal with Communist Germany over Austria ?

World War 2? No, at least not as we had it. The Pacific conflict between the US and Japan happens as in OTL but in Europe, you'd have a more complex set of relationships and "alliances". Does the USSR still contemplate expansionism? I suspect not.

It's possible German "Communism" will evolve by the 30s and 40s into something very different from Soviet Communism - more workers' control of factories, no collectivisation - perhaps what Gorbachev called "perestroika" would be "Offentlichkeit" or something similar - the State supreme but more willing to hear other voices. Economic growth doesn't mean the middle class disappears and prosperity is often the driver for reform. Could we see something more like our social democracy by the 50s and Brandt still as Chancellor but pursuing detente with the rest of Europe in the 60s and 70s?
 
It's possible German "Communism" will evolve by the 30s and 40s into something very different from Soviet Communism
Yeah, I remember reading the Mensheviks got more praise around the communist factions of Western Europe instead of the Bolsheviks, who were seen in a more "authoritarian" light. Some of them even looked at "Menshevik Georgia" as the role model to follow instead of the Big Red Neighbor "Bolshevik Russia".

You could, ironically, end with a "cold war" of sorts between two red nations, while the rest of Eastern Europe being the "neutral" buffer state that could (or not) evolve into a proxy war mess.
 
A scenario just as plausible is what if France goes red right after WWII. The French Communists were a large part of the Resistance and thought about taking over immediately after de Gaulle stepped foot in Paris in August 1944.

I can't see a Communist Germany in the Weimar period though. The German Communists weren't likely to win and hold a coalition for very long. They had very few allies in other parties. Communism in Germany did about as well as it could IRL with East Germany post-WWII, before it collapsed along with the Wall. The best the Communists did in the Weimar period was 16.9% of the vote, a 3rd place finish, in 1932. In the 1920s the best they did was 4th place

The problem of the French Communists taking power in August 1944 is the presence of hundred of thousands of Western Allies troops. And if the French will be unable to govern themselves, the Americans had the AMGOT administration ready to take power.


From Wikipedia :

Opposition of France
A dollar-like 100-franc note produced by the Americans and supplied in June 1944 following Operation "Overlord".

US President Franklin Roosevelt insisted that an AMGOT should be implemented in France, but this was opposed by both Henry Stimson, the US Secretary of War, the US Under-Secretary for War, as well as Allied Europe Supreme Commander, General Dwight Eisenhower, who had been strongly opposed to the imposition of AMGOT in North Africa. Eisenhower, unlike Roosevelt, wanted to cooperate with Charles de Gaulle, and he secured a last-minute promise from Roosevelt on the eve of D-Day that the Allied officers would not act as military governors and would instead cooperate with the local authorities as the Allied forces liberated French territory[citation needed]. De Gaulle would, however, later claim in his memoirs that he blocked AMGOT.

The AMGOT would have been implemented in France after its liberation if not for the Free French establishing control of the country per the Provisional Government of the French Republic in the name of the Free French Forces and the united French Resistance (FFI) following the liberation of Paris by the French themselves instead of the Allies, in August 1944.
 
If by say 1921 there exists a communist Germany on one side and the Soviet Union on the other, is there any way for Czechoslovakia, Poland, and the Baltics* to survive as fortress nations? Or will they inevitably be partitioned/ turned into satellite communist regimes?

*I’m including a remnant German Empire based in East Prussia as well.

France will not let Germany become Red in 1921, they will wait until the last White German had been killed, then they will show Red Germany that they don't want a communist state on their border.
 
France will not let Germany become Red in 1921, they will wait until the last White German had been killed, then they will show Red Germany that they don't want a communist state on their border.
That would certainly be true for the French ruling and middle classes. They feared socialism because it would destroy their social privilege. However, although it was weakened in times of prosperity, the French working class was no less supportive of Communism (or, minimally, opposed to intervention in the affairs of Bolshevik Russia) than Germany’s working class, whose activism had created the world’s earliest welfare state.
Personally, I think Polish-Czechoslovak antagonism is the biggest variable when it comes to preserving the sovereignty of states trapped in-between Berlin and Moscow.
Actually, Czechoslovakia (or more accurately the Czech section thereof) was politically and culturally more akin to Western than Eastern Europe. One must not forget that Czechoslovakia (until its invasion by Germany) was the only permanent democracy in Europe outside Switzerland and those nations bordering the North Atlantic shore. This reflects the political strength of the Czech working class and that less developed Central and East Slovakia was largely mountainous and smallholding so that it's landholders could not control the national state.

More than that, the Czech areas themselves had very strong Communist movements. So, I think that if Germany went Communist after World War One Czechoslovakia’s working class would very likely have set up a Communist government itself.
 
France will not let Germany become Red in 1921, they will wait until the last White German had been killed, then they will show Red Germany that they don't want a communist state on their border.

And the economy will grind to a halt with extensive striking the moment they announce their intention to engage in ANOTHER horrific bloodbath less then three years after the first one. It would be political suicide, to say nothing of probable extensive communist sympathies in the lower classes. Any party openly for an invasion of Germany would be SLAUGHTERED at the polls. Quite frankly it doesn't matter one singular, solitary fuck what the French political class thinks, the rest of the nation will tell them to get stuffed.
 
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And the economy will grind to a halt the moment they announce their intention to engage in ANOTHER horrific bloodbath less then three years after the first one. It would be political suicide, to say nothing of probable extensive communist sympathies in the lower classes. Any party openly for an invasion of Germany would be SLAUGHTERED at the polls. Quite frankly it doesn't matter one singular, solitary fuck what the French political class thinks, the rest of the nation will tell them to get stuffed.
That would mean, ipso facto, that Western European intervention is counterproductive once workers take power in Germany. It would mean that the ruling class would be overthrown in France, creating a situation analogous to Phillip Cunliffe’s Lenin Lives!: Reimagining the Russian Revolution 1917-2017, except for the implausible outcome of revolution in the United States.
 

Osman Aga

Banned
If by say 1921 there exists a communist Germany on one side and the Soviet Union on the other, is there any way for Czechoslovakia, Poland, and the Baltics* to survive as fortress nations? Or will they inevitably be partitioned/ turned into satellite communist regimes?

*I’m including a remnant German Empire based in East Prussia as well.
Theoretically speaking yes, though I do see a potential of a rivalry between Germany and the USSR.
 
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