If Europeans discover the Americas later what is the maximum extent of the Aztec and Inca empire

[Silver01]

Based on a recent conversation, Say for what ever reason it takes decades to discover the Americas compared to the OTL, so that both the Aztec and Inca empire are given some 50 plus years, how big do you think both empires would have gotten

For the Aztec I see them conquering Tlaxcala and try to expand south east, I dont know if they try to again invade the Purechera empire, still Mexico would until the mega drought of 1540s continue its upward trend of urbanization and population boom, still what do you think the upper limits of Aztec conquest would be ?

As for the Inca given recent theories have started to swift the consensus that there was no 1528 plague, and that the Sapa Inca Huayna Capac was murdered, that means civil war still occurs, but now Atahualpa is given time to Consolidate, aside from dealing with growing Guarani migrations, does the Inca still expand? the cultures of Colombia unlike the Mapuche offer a lot of economic benefits to the empire, would he even try and if he does how successful is he, or do you think the empire in 1528 was already at its limits of what it could conquer

 

[Lalli]

I can't see Aztecs expanding much further. They have managed to get lot of enemies and even without Cortés Aztec Empire probably would be finished in couple decades anyway or at least severely weakened.

Incas might are on their limits. The empire has become pretty large relatively quickly and there was already some opposition. So it probably has just satisfy its borders and try to keep control on its conquests.

Anyway, where from is that theory over assassination? Never heard such.

 

[Silver01]

I can't see Aztecs expanding much further. They have managed to get lot of enemies and even without Cortés Aztec Empire probably would be finished in couple decades anyway or at least severely weakened.

I wonder why aside from the mega drought and posible pandemics in mid 1540s do you think it could not weather that crisis ?

Incas might are on their limits. The empire has become pretty large relatively quickly and there was already some opposition. So it probably has just satisfy its borders and try to keep control on its conquests.

Hmm so no Inca conquest of the muisica and other people unless Atahualpa for some reason wants to look north

Anyway, where from is that theory over assassination? Never heard such.

Why Blame Smallpox? The Death of the Inca Huayna Capac and the Demographic Destruction of Ancient Peru (Tawantinsuyu)

So there was no 1528 small pox epidemic as for the assassination you can read REVISIÓN DE ARGUMENTOS RESPETO AL HIPOTÉTICO ASESINATO DEL INCA HUAYNA CAPAC
Which talks about the theory that he was poisoned

 

[Silver01]

@EMT I would like to know your opinion do you think Atahualpa would mostly secure his throne and not try to push for Colombia or that the empire it self could not realistically expand further than otl borders

 

[Domrémy-Scorniçesti Axis]

Based on a recent conversation, Say for what ever reason it takes decades to discover the Americas compared to the OTL, so that both the Aztec and Inca empire are given some 50 plus years, how big do you think both empires would have gotten

For the Aztec I see them conquering Tlaxcala and try to expand south east, I dont know if they try to again invade the Purechera empire, still Mexico would until the mega drought of 1540s continue its upward trend of urbanization and population boom, still what do you think the upper limits of Aztec conquest would be ?

As for the Inca given recent theories have started to swift the consensus that there was no 1528 plague, and that the Sapa Inca Huayna Capac was murdered, that means civil war still occurs, but now Atahualpa is given time to Consolidate, aside from dealing with growing Guarani migrations, does the Inca still expand? the cultures of Colombia unlike the Mapuche offer a lot of economic benefits to the empire, would he even try and if he does how successful is he, or do you think the empire in 1528 was already at its limits of what it could conquer

Neither empire would expand substantially, as they had maxed out by 1420. The idea the Aztecs could conquer the Mayans and the Incas would expand until the Esequibo if the Spanish didn't arrive is absurd and ahistorical

 

[Silver01]

Neither empire would expand substantially, as they had maxed out by 1420. The idea the Aztecs could conquer the Mayans and the Incas would expand until the Esequibo if the Spanish didn't arrive is absurd and ahistorical

Sorry I meant to Say south west , since the Aztec some time ago before the spanish invasion had lost control of their tributaries of Oaxaca, as Guissi Gui destroyed the aztec army in the battle of Battle of Guiengola, after its successful campaign against The Xoconochco, which got rid of the Aztec projecting power to the southern coast of Chiapas and reaching as far as Honduras, So if the aztec try again after dealing with Tlaxcala, do you think they would be met by defeat again by Guiengola, or would it be conquered

As for the inca yeah I belive the Esequibo is way to far also does not match what the inca wanted

 

[anotherlurker]

The Aztec Empire was quite small and a thousand years earlier Teotihuacan was able to militarily interfere in the business of all peoples all the way to Guatemala. I see no reason why the Mexica shouldn't be able to do the same, there isn't really a comparable opposition in the region.

The Incans though had already grown past what could be easily controlled and administered, the territory is just too big for a centralized state communicating at the speed of a mans feet. When the Spanish came the Incan Empire was arguably already in a civil war.

 

[Silver01]

The Incans though had already grown past what could be easily controlled and administered, the territory is just too big for a centralized state communicating at the speed of a mans feet. When the Spanish came the Incan Empire was arguably already in a civil war.

Do You think after Atahualpa death does the north south slipt become official?

 

[EMT]

@EMT I would like to know your opinion do you think Atahualpa would mostly secure his throne and not try to push for Colombia or that the empire it self could not realistically expand further than otl borders

I don't think it's impossible, but I'm also very unfamiliar with the Muisca outside of a high level overview. Let's go with the civil war ending exactly as OTL as a starting point, except no Spaniards show up.

1) Victor or not, Atahualpa is the start of something new in the Inca system in that he legitimized himself through warfare against another claimant. This could have repercussions for the stability of his rule, his legitimacy in the eyes of the people that help run the state apparatus, and even within the religious makeup of the Inca state
2) Most of the civil war would have been fought in his half of the realm, and the damage would likewise affect his ability to leverage resources for a conquest of Colombia
3) A lot will depend on what happens after he marches south of Cajamarca. How does he deal with Huascar's backers, what's the scale of his retribution, etc.

My blind projection is that if Atahualpa pushes for a conquest of Colombia within the first 10-20 years of his reign, I'd expect it to cost him the longterm unity of his empire and the collapse of the Inca between a north and south. The conquest itself could succeed, or could fail. But it's gonna cost his realm a lot to even shoot their shot. If Atahualpa is wise, he's going to focus on administration and reform. The Muisca could absolutely be a worthwhile and profitable conquest for the Inca, but the Inca's problems at this point are a north-south divide that needs to be mended. Atahualpa is already seen as of the north by the Cuzco elite and illegitimate. Further focusing on the north of the empire might just make this divide a chasm

 

[Silver01]

I don't think it's impossible, but I'm also very unfamiliar with the Muisca outside of a high level overview. Let's go with the civil war ending exactly as OTL as a starting point, except no Spaniards show up.

1) Victor or not, Atahualpa is the start of something new in the Inca system in that he legitimized himself through warfare against another claimant. This could have repercussions for the stability of his rule, his legitimacy in the eyes of the people that help run the state apparatus, and even within the religious makeup of the Inca state
2) Most of the civil war would have been fought in his half of the realm, and the damage would likewise affect his ability to leverage resources for a conquest of Colombia
3) A lot will depend on what happens after he marches south of Cajamarca. How does he deal with Huascar's backers, what's the scale of his retribution, etc.

Knowing Atahualpa depends on the chronicle but when mercy failed he straight went for terror against the supporters of Huascar so to the elites of Cusco does he offer the same branch he did before to Huascar generals or just goes on film purge mode when he reaches Cusco

My blind projection is that if Atahualpa pushes for a conquest of Colombia within the first 10-20 years of his reign, I'd expect it to cost him the longterm unity of his empire and the collapse of the Inca between a north and south. The conquest itself could succeed, or could fail. But it's gonna cost his realm a lot to even shoot their shot.

What if Atahualpa like Rome actually officially slipts the empire like it's still one empire but now run by two emperors

If Atahualpa is wise, he's going to focus on administration and reform. The Muisca could absolutely be a worthwhile and profitable conquest for the Inca, but the Inca's problems at this point are a north-south divide that needs to be mended. Atahualpa is already seen as of the north by the Cuzco elite and illegitimate. Further focusing on the north of the empire might just make this divide a chasm

So based on the character of Atahualpa in the otl really didn't what would he do I don't think he is gonna eye Colombia in 1532.

If he at least spends say the first five years of his rule recovering from the civil war I personally think a nother campaign is possible after all like you mentioned he got his throne via war and a great victory could help his popularity but and here is my question if he successfully conquers at least part of Colombia does he divide the spoils to Quito and his northern base along with Cuzco or just sent to Cuzco to win the nobility over with what he would adquiere

 

[Silver01]

The Muisca could absolutely be a worthwhile and profitable conquest for the Inca

Forgot to ask how much do you think they can push stop at the musica or push as far as panama Taironas to the Caribbean region of Colombia

 

[173rd LRRP]

Any thoughts on the Mound Builders extension and development?

 

[EMT]

Knowing Atahualpa depends on the chronicle but when mercy failed he straight went for terror against the supporters of Huascar so to the elites of Cusco does he offer the same branch he did before to Huascar generals or just goes on film purge mode when he reaches Cusco

What if Atahualpa like Rome actually officially slipts the empire like it's still one empire but now run by two emperors

So based on the character of Atahualpa in the otl really didn't what would he do I don't think he is gonna eye Colombia in 1532.

If he at least spends say the first five years of his rule recovering from the civil war I personally think a nother campaign is possible after all like you mentioned he got his throne via war and a great victory could help his popularity but and here is my question if he successfully conquers at least part of Colombia does he divide the spoils to Quito and his northern base along with Cuzco or just sent to Cuzco to win the nobility over with what he would adquiere

In order:

1. I think the Cuzco elite are screwed, heads will roll, and many families that are nobles through lineage association with past Inca Emperors and their mummies are about to eat soooo much shit. The mummy system is an albatross around the Inca state and I think Atahualpa will be aware of it, in that it's what lets a bunch of people he hates cling to power. I think it's going to be half motivated by revenge, half motivated by administrative reform. Too many reasons to do it and not enough reasons to not do it, not when the last opposing military opponents have been driven from the field and there's no one left to fight on their behalf. Plus as you outlined, Inca justice is very brutal. Atahualpa will be well aware of the Cuzco nobility's perfidiousness if even we are aware of it centuries later.

2. I think it's possible, and might even help boost his legitimacy by doubling down on what Huayna Capac intended. I'd call it very possible, but it's impossible to know Atahualpa would have felt about the splitting of the empire after a civil war. To him it might be the worst mistake Huayna Capac ever made.

3. Agreed. He will have bigger, traitorous fish to fry in the short term

4. I can see a campaign being worth it because of how callous the Inca are towards human capital and its exploitation. Invading the Muisca could be a very easy way(relatively) for Atahualpa to being repopulating his ravaged half of the realm while validating him as another legitimate Emperor through his conquests. I don't think he's sending squat to Cuzco because by the time he's engaging in a northern campaign, the Cuzco nobility will have by necessity already been put in their place. Especially if they put up any resistance as Atahualpa marches south initially and ex. forces a siege of his own theoretical capital. And I think the imperial mummy system is imminently in danger

Forgot to ask how much do you think they can push stop at the musica or push as far as panama Taironas to the Caribbean region of Colombia

5. I think northern Colombia would be a bit of a wilderness and full of refugee groups, rebels, and largely out of Inca control for good long while. They have no reason to value a northern coastline, but would likely become aware of the Caribbean in the process of carrying out their campaign. I'd expect direct control over the Colombian highlands and 'control' over the coasts. The Inca might campaign up to Taironas, maybe even disperse and deport them as a people as they did to many others, but I don't think their control will be anywhere near as absolute as it is/was in the Andes. There's simply too much land, too little resources to control it, and the same methods of control just won't work as well in tropical environments with abundant foliage and wildlife to either lose someone in or get killed by if particularly unlucky. I think the same principles that made the Inca say fuck the Amazon is what will make them say that coastal Colombia is more trouble than it's worth(in the short term).

The more we discuss it the more I'm convinced that an attempt would be likely, it could potentially succeed, but there would be plenty of uncontrollable variables that could make this anything from a shot of adrenaline into the Inca's arm to being the beginning of the end.

 

[Silver01]

. I think the Cuzco elite are screwed, heads will roll, and many families that are nobles through lineage association with past Inca Emperors and their mummies are about to eat soooo much shit. The mummy system is an albatross around the Inca state and I think Atahualpa will be aware of it, in that it's what lets a bunch of people he hates cling to power. I think it's going to be half motivated by revenge, half motivated by administrative reform. Too many reasons to do it and not enough reasons to not do it, not when the last opposing military opponents have been driven from the field and there's no one left to fight on their behalf. Plus as you outlined, Inca justice is very brutal. Atahualpa will be well aware of the Cuzco nobility's perfidiousness if even we are aware of it centuries later.

Yeah I can see a big purge I would assume Atahualpa would also have no trouble killing many of his half brothers to secure the throne and that when he is gone the Cuzco nobles didn't declare another Inca

2. I think it's possible, and might even help boost his legitimacy by doubling down on what Huayna Capac intended. I'd call it very possible, but it's impossible to know Atahualpa would have felt about the splitting of the empire after a civil war. To him it might be the worst mistake Huayna Capac ever made

Assuming he isn't assassinated and lives till at least 60 he has 30 years to make up his mind on the issue.

And I think the imperial mummy system is imminently in danger

Even after consolidating you think he is not even gonna send a bone to the city but yeah the using the tribes to repair his realm makes sense as for the mummies would Atahualpa really try to take lands from them despite that he gained new territory?

I think northern Colombia would be a bit of a wilderness and full of refugee groups, rebels, and largely out of Inca control for good long while. They have no reason to value a northern coastline, but would likely become aware of the Caribbean in the process of carrying out their campaign. I'd expect direct control over the Colombian highlands and 'control' over the coasts. The Inca might campaign up to Taironas, maybe even disperse and deport them as a people as they did to many others, but I don't think their control will be anywhere near as absolute as it is/was in the Andes. There's simply too much land, too little resources to control it, and the same methods of control just won't work as well in tropical environments with abundant foliage and wildlife to either lose someone in or get killed by if particularly unlucky. I think the same principles that made the Inca say fuck the Amazon is what will make them say that coastal Colombia is more trouble than it's worth(in the short term).

This is partially true but let's clear some things aside from the muisica the next biggest organized and economically prosperous people in Colombia the Spanish mentioned how the extensive irrigation fields were like Tuscany, densely populated these people made gold artefacts but as you can see on the map these people were in the Pacific coast along with the zenu

Now the area from the Muisca to the coast occupied the southern part of that is not rainforest but it's humid like 1900 mm of rain and the diverse tropical savannah to mountain environments
Now the Spanish depended a lot on the Magdalena river now I don't know if the Inca could do the same but even with the riches of Tayrona would it be worth it to push thar far ?

Any way assuming the Spanish don't at minimum come till 1582 ( not that they conquer it but arrive ) by that time how many groups would be assimilated to Inca culture and adopt quechua I mean I personally see half a century means at least some groups become more assimilated

 

[Silver01]

Any thoughts on the Mound Builders extension and development?

I don't know about north America enough to say how an extra 50 years impacts the development of the area

 

[Arkenfolm]

The Aztec Empire was quite small and a thousand years earlier Teotihuacan was able to militarily interfere in the business of all peoples all the way to Guatemala. I see no reason why the Mexica shouldn't be able to do the same, there isn't really a comparable opposition in the region.

Nobody is really certain what Teotihuacan was doing with the Maya states. It might have been a military intervention, but it just as much might have been envoys from Teotihuacan backing a pro-Teotihuacan coup. The Aztecs have the Purepecha on their border which constrains the locations they might conquer since they need to keep the Purepecha encircled. I believe they could get lucky and conquer the Purepecha, but that's their last major conquest (possibly after Tlaxcala). Anything else is going to be fairly minor in the grand scheme of things and control indirect (like Teotihuacan's control) since running an empire with such poor naval technology and no animals larger than a dog limits the size it might expand.

Any thoughts on the Mound Builders extension and development?

They mostly dispersed because of a major drought which will still happen TTL. A lot of warfare will occur and many will die and it will probably more closely resemble the Spanish and French accounts of the early 17th century South.

The biggest change is the long delay of the "protohistoric" period in Eastern North America which means a lot of tribes remain poorer and weaker. The Iroquois Confederacy probably never forms (or takes much longer to), nor do other contemporary formations like Powhatan's empire. The Algonquians of New England are poorer and backwards for longer.

 

[Silver01]

fairly minor in the grand scheme of things and control indirect (like Teotihuacan's control) since running an empire with such poor naval technology and no animals larger than a dog limits the size it might expand.

What about Guiengola would that be minor?

 

[Silver01]

Something I thought about if the Inca expand to Colombia and we know indirect trade existed between Ecuador and mexico how likely is that more trade or even an expedition like Tupac Inca Yupanqui occurs but for western mexico