In OTL, the main reason the Spaniards were able to conquer the Incas was the civil war sparked by the death of the previous Inca, Huayna Capac, through plague. The Spaniards kidnapped Atahualpa and managed to install an heir of his opponent in the civil war, Huascar (who had already been killed by Atahualpa). The Spanish used the Huascar faction to play off against the rest of the Empire, and prevented a clear successor to Atahualpa from emerging.
So let's say this civil war never occurs. IOTL Huayna Capac had led the Incan army into conquering Ecuador. Huayna Capac liked the climate and scenery up there and decided to make it his 'interim' residence... however, he never got around to returning to Cuzco, because he was killed six years later, along with his designated heir (Ninan Cuyochi) by smallpox. Unfortunately for him, Ecuador was right in the path of the plague. Now it might have turned out okay if Ninan had not died; but he did as well, leaving the succession undetermined.
So let's say something happens that forces him to return to Cuzco, a revolt in the southern portion of the Empire perhaps, or maybe he just tires of the place. His court would return with him, as well. Now, with more warning of the plague, perhaps he or his heir survive the plague; let's say both do, for the POD.
Now when Pizarro arrives, he faces a much more centralized and united empire; Huayna Capac may be able to offer much better resistance to Pizarro with a united Empire. The technological advantage of the Spaniards was not that great, and indeed many Spaniards took to wearing the durable layered cloth armor of the Incas over their own. Facing the small force the Spaniards had, they should be easily able to either defeat them in open battle or ambush them to death on the steep mountain roads.
Now even if the Spaniards manage to kidnap and kill Huayna Capac like they did Atahualpa, the succession is clear and Niyan Cuyochi will definitely be hostile to further Spanish efforts. One reason the Spanish were able to exploit the tensions between Huascar and Atahualpa's factions so well was that Atahualpa basically stripped the gold from Cuzaco (Huascar's base) and his family's coffers; this will not happen TTL. The Spanish will be driven out; and after Pizarro never returns other may not come back for a while. Niyan Cuyochi, on the other hand, will be wary of new Spanish attempts. The heavily centralized Incan state (their economy was planned on a scale that would make Stalin drool) would have a chance of surviving the next wave of plagues and eventually rebuilding, especially if they master the horse and get any Spanish survivors how to teach them about ironworking.
So, when do you think the Spanish will come calling again? 1540? Later?
So let's say this civil war never occurs. IOTL Huayna Capac had led the Incan army into conquering Ecuador. Huayna Capac liked the climate and scenery up there and decided to make it his 'interim' residence... however, he never got around to returning to Cuzco, because he was killed six years later, along with his designated heir (Ninan Cuyochi) by smallpox. Unfortunately for him, Ecuador was right in the path of the plague. Now it might have turned out okay if Ninan had not died; but he did as well, leaving the succession undetermined.
So let's say something happens that forces him to return to Cuzco, a revolt in the southern portion of the Empire perhaps, or maybe he just tires of the place. His court would return with him, as well. Now, with more warning of the plague, perhaps he or his heir survive the plague; let's say both do, for the POD.
Now when Pizarro arrives, he faces a much more centralized and united empire; Huayna Capac may be able to offer much better resistance to Pizarro with a united Empire. The technological advantage of the Spaniards was not that great, and indeed many Spaniards took to wearing the durable layered cloth armor of the Incas over their own. Facing the small force the Spaniards had, they should be easily able to either defeat them in open battle or ambush them to death on the steep mountain roads.
Now even if the Spaniards manage to kidnap and kill Huayna Capac like they did Atahualpa, the succession is clear and Niyan Cuyochi will definitely be hostile to further Spanish efforts. One reason the Spanish were able to exploit the tensions between Huascar and Atahualpa's factions so well was that Atahualpa basically stripped the gold from Cuzaco (Huascar's base) and his family's coffers; this will not happen TTL. The Spanish will be driven out; and after Pizarro never returns other may not come back for a while. Niyan Cuyochi, on the other hand, will be wary of new Spanish attempts. The heavily centralized Incan state (their economy was planned on a scale that would make Stalin drool) would have a chance of surviving the next wave of plagues and eventually rebuilding, especially if they master the horse and get any Spanish survivors how to teach them about ironworking.
So, when do you think the Spanish will come calling again? 1540? Later?
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