Garrison
Donor
A random flu or pneumonia, a sudden deterioration in his condition, or another of those long line of lunatics with guns who keep going after US presidents.
How Would WW2 Go Without US Intervention
- Thread starter Emperor Norton I
- Start date
A random flu or pneumonia, a sudden deterioration in his condition, or another of those long line of lunatics with guns who keep going after US presidents.
Garrison
Donor
Just a random idea for a POD that would both scale back the Pacific theatre and explain the US being much frostier to Britain. Britain backs Japan over the racial equality clause at Versaille. The two nations remain on better diplomatic terms through the 20s and 30s with the Militarists in Japan getting less traction, though Japan does acquire some colonial territory in China. The US however still has poor relations with Japan which eventually leads to the ban on immigration and even the oil embargo; which the British ignore and seek to provide alternate supplies.
Thus when WWII breaks out in Europe The US is far from inclined to help and if/when war comes in the Pacific it's limited to a US/Japanese affair, Britain may not approve of Japanese action but of course it's not going to start a second front in the Pacific if it can help it.
Feel free to tear that to shreds.
Thus when WWII breaks out in Europe The US is far from inclined to help and if/when war comes in the Pacific it's limited to a US/Japanese affair, Britain may not approve of Japanese action but of course it's not going to start a second front in the Pacific if it can help it.
Feel free to tear that to shreds.
This is probably the most plausible outcome. However I might add a few points.
1. Assuming no Lend-Lease then the Soviets have some serious issues. It is still likely that the war gets turned on Germany, but I would suggest the Germans get further then they did in '41-'42 and the Soviet offensives in '43 are less successful. Thus pushing back the German collapse maybe as late as mid '46 or early '47.
2. Without Roosevelt, then British-Soviet relations are highly unlikely to ever get to work. Churchill was very suspicious of Stalin, and Stalin rather similarly of Churchill and the British in general. With no promise from Britain to open up a second front, and with Britain unable to conduct a 'D-day scale invasion' the best the Allies are going to be able to do is push for offensives in Italy after North Africa and Greece.
This totally ignores the threat of Japan which Britain will be unable to counter. However what this does mean is the Australia and New Zealand will be fought fighting the brunt of that war if it goes ahead.
Key Point: Hitler declared war on the US bringing them into the conflict in Europe, only after the Americans declared war on the Japanese. Therefore you cannot have a separate Jap-American war, from the War in Europe.
Now here is a conundrum. Because of the way the US was brought into WWII we have to assume that Japan never conducts Pearl Harbour, and instead only goes for British Malaya and the Dutch East Indies and Indonesia.
This critically means that Japan will win the naval war and occupy many of its territorial gains during WWII with relative impunity. Thailand will again align with Japan, and the fighting will be conducted in Indonesia and Burma.
Australia will be seriously threatened by this war, and even though she made a massive commitment to WWII she would have to shoulder a good half of the war effort for the Allies here. Luckily, Imperial Japan is much destined to never be able to control China, and that war will drag on and on indefinably for years without anybody to even have a hope in hells chance of taking out Japan.
3. Because of the seriousness of Japans 'entry' into the war, the allies will be in a very dark place in '42. Japan will be seeing it as 'their time' and aren't likely to accept a peace with Britain, particularly because of how past 'peaces' from the early wars of the 20thC had Japans military gains stripped from here. Fighting in North Africa will continue, but we can assume that the Allies eventually prevail here, since in terms of the leadership Monty generally appears to have been better able than Rommel in this theatre, and the Italians were pretty hopeless.
The result being that North Africa stays being Allied, Burma is set up to become a battleground, and Indonesia is set up to become a battleground.
Entering '43
4. Without America, Britain and the Allies are going to find it very hard to conduct an offensive anywhere. They have the choice of the east or the west.
It would more likely be an attack in the west they go for, to try and take Italy out of the war. And so we see an Italian campaign like we did historically, but it moves much slower and with more casualties than historically.
By about October '44 Rome may fall, and by mid '45 Italy surrenders.
However the allies would have little hope to push on anywhere else into Europe, even with the German front beginning to collapse in Russia they can't 'pull a D-day' on their own, and in the Pacific everything may have 'stalemated' with nobody gaining ground on either side. The Allies won't have much hope at this point to push for Berlin or Paris, but fighting will likely spill over into south-east France, and Slovenia and along the Adriatic coast in the next few months.
Because Anglo-Russian relations are poor, Stalin is not going to be swayed by many talks for engaging with the Japanese. This theatre will continue 'as is' however he may be amenable to open up a joint offensive into Greece with the Allied navies in the Black Sea.
This would force the Axis collapse, since the entire Balkans now represents a liability.
The key question then becomes, does Germany sue for a conditional peace, pending this flanking manoeuvre, or fight to the death? Arguably Hitler is not going to see sense at any point and will fight to the death. But with the Red Army fighting alongside some Allied divisions, and in more equal numbers most likely, up through Greece, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia it will be much harder for the communists to install puppet governments as they go along.
The Yugoslavians will likely have their uprising like historically adding to the general collapse of the 3rd Reich and Poland eventually is threatened early '46.
While the Allies won't get much say in the liberation of Northern Romania, Poland and the Baltic states, the two fronts will be merging along Czechslovakia and eventually into Germany.
5. By early '47 Germany surrenders, but now there is a very serious issue Anglo-Russian relations will have improved alot over the last few months, but Stalin is going to have paid a higher price than the Allies for this, and there is still the Pacific war in relative stalemate.
There will not be an iron curtain, because the soviets could not gain hegemony during their liberation campaigns, what they will have is domination over Poland. Which will likely become a 'puppet state' in the near future, and so too might Northern Romania. Germany might have its occupation zones more equally split Soviet north, UK east, France west. But the Balkans will be 'afire' with civil wars in Yugoslavia, Hungary etc. even with Soviet and Allied troops present.
5a. If the soviets call it quits now, or 'delay their entry' into the Pacific war, then Stalin will cost the Allies tremendously, much like a 'revenge move'. Because the Allies need to get out of Europe to deal with Japan this is a major issue. If they go for it, then the Soviets gain hegemony over all the Balkans and all of Germany basically.
5b. Britain decides to negotiate with Japan with Russia as an 'ally' basically stating, that unless a peace can be drawn, Russia will invade via Manchuria. Japan won't like this 'boxing in' and the army may fight the decision. If we assume that the atomic bomb has still been developed, or that British teams have been working on their own project in the next few years there will be nuclear weapons on the table. This won't mean one jot if the Allies can't retake the pacific, but this is too big a task for the Allies. Only now may gains in Indonesia may be being made.
The points ends up being, the deal must be in Japans favour. This likely means that Indochina, Borneo, Malaysia, Sulwaise and parts of Burma likely get ceded to Japan/Thailand, in exchange for an armistice. However war in China will go on for a long time to come.
6. Because of this, the Anglo-Japanese Armistice would not be a 'friendly one' both sides still at high alert, and similarly in Europe there would be gearing up still because of Liberal-Communist tensions in securing the Balkens and along occupation zones and the question of Poland.
All the items needed to restart WWII as WIII in the near future are there...
My small contribution to a POD:
In 1933 president-elect Roosevelt is killed in the assassination attempt in Miami. The US reacts with shock and gets paranoid against immigrants (such as the assassin, Italian born Giuseppe Zangara). A mixture of Red Scare and Homeland Defense/Patriot Act divides the US further and prolonging the depression. Interest for international questions fall to an all time low.
In 1936 Huey Long, who learned several lessions from FDRs assassination and thereby prevented his own, becomes president. The following years are filled with political backstabbing, legal actions and attempts to introduce/block Longs populist agenda. Very interesting for political science, but the US became very isolationistic. The rape of Nanking 1937 raised few eyebrows and no call for sanctions were made. The military postings in the Pacific west of Pearl Harbor were downsized.
So when Germany begins WW2 the US is isolationistic, divided, in a political lock and with far lower military capacity in Asia than OTL. Japan can continue its insane invasion/occupation of China and don't have to conquer any oil sources (at least as long their money is good). Therefore no/later war in the Pacific.
In 1933 president-elect Roosevelt is killed in the assassination attempt in Miami. The US reacts with shock and gets paranoid against immigrants (such as the assassin, Italian born Giuseppe Zangara). A mixture of Red Scare and Homeland Defense/Patriot Act divides the US further and prolonging the depression. Interest for international questions fall to an all time low.
In 1936 Huey Long, who learned several lessions from FDRs assassination and thereby prevented his own, becomes president. The following years are filled with political backstabbing, legal actions and attempts to introduce/block Longs populist agenda. Very interesting for political science, but the US became very isolationistic. The rape of Nanking 1937 raised few eyebrows and no call for sanctions were made. The military postings in the Pacific west of Pearl Harbor were downsized.
So when Germany begins WW2 the US is isolationistic, divided, in a political lock and with far lower military capacity in Asia than OTL. Japan can continue its insane invasion/occupation of China and don't have to conquer any oil sources (at least as long their money is good). Therefore no/later war in the Pacific.
Schizophrenic, isolationist USA, insane militarist Japan slogging through an endless, hellish war with a fracturing China, Germany smashing itself to pieces against the USSR, the Allies exhausting themselves and laying waste to much of Europe while liberating it, instability everywhere--sounds like good TL material.
I would love to read something like this. Somebody please go for it.
If we assume that Japan declares war on the European allies, yet not the Americans, some neutral yet pro-Axis nations may be more inclined to muck in with the Axis. Perhaps Spain, perhaps Turkey. Either of these nations joining would make the situation for the allies even more perilous.
Also, the various Latin American nations will be far more hesitant to join in without the US.
Also, the various Latin American nations will be far more hesitant to join in without the US.
Garrison
Donor
The problem is that the US is not going to tolerate Japan expanding in the Pacific even if it isn't on speaking terms with Britain and France; it would move in to 'protect' those colonies threatened by the Japanese. This why the Japanese attacked the US OTL rather than just concentrate on the European colonies, they knew they could never secure the resources they needed as long as they faced a hostile USA.
Well, an alternate Japanese entry into the war could be Japan attacking the USSR after the Germans did. The British would likely declare war on the Japanese in the way they did the Fins IOTL, then the Japanese could claim self-defence in taking the European colonies. This would keep the US neutral for longer. Plus, American public opinion would keep them neutral as attacking Japan to protect European colonies when it was the British who declared the war would NOT go over well on the home front.
Not necessarily. You'd be hard-pressed to get a declaration of war from Congress without a direct attack on American soil or assets.
But why would Japanese attack USSR in 1941? They tried in 1939 and got bloody nose. And it was only border skirmish. What could they expect in an all out war? Besides, attacking USSR does not in any way help them solve their pressing issue of lack of oil.
Even if they did, British would not need to declare war. Soviets would be able to clear up everything by themselves.
Even if they did, British would not need to declare war. Soviets would be able to clear up everything by themselves.
a) With POD as the one I posted above Japan would not face a trade embargo, thereby eliminating the need to conquer Malaya for oil and other raw materials. Japan could either continue its idiotic war in China forever (well, Japan would probably run out of men/money sooner or later) or attack the western forces far later.
b) What US? President Long, the part of Congress that is pro-Long or the part of Congress that is anti-Long? Make US enough isolationistic, divided and with reduced military capacities (no B-17, for example) and the tolerance may be very high.
Garrison
Donor
Yes but the US has large strategic interests in the Pacific, its simply not going to ignore the Japanese, and even if for some reason they did the Japanese are unlikely to return the favour.
Garrison
Donor
Exactly, and even if Japan avoided a trade embargo by the US that's no subsititute for controlling the sources of those vital materials themselves. They will move into the Pacific/SEA and they will clash with the US unless you radically rewrite Japanese politics.
Nobody wins?
How about this? Two divergences.
1) 1936 - General Sanjurjo doesn't try to fly in Ansaldo's two-seater, and remains head of the Spanish army rebellion.
Effect: Sanjurjo is Caudillo after the Civil War, instead of the ultra cautious Franco.
2) 1939 - The transfer of ENIGMA decryption technology from Poland to France and Britain occurs two months earlier than OTL. An Anglo-French team is visiting the Poles in Warsaw when the war breaks out; they arrange for the Polish cipher operation to be evacuated by air to Britain with all their files, instead of by land via Romania.
Effect: The Anglo-French break into ENIGMA is moved up by about two months. By the beginning of March 1940, the Allies are reading the RED key (Luftwaffe operations) on a regular basis. As in OTL, this intelligence was codenamed ULTRA.
Scenario.
Forewarned, the Allies defeat the German invasion of Norway.
Due to the Norway fiasco, the German attack on France and the Low Countries is delayed two months.
When the Germans do strike in July, the Allies contain the attack.
FDR has put off deciding on a third term. He shouldn't run, but he may be needed due to the crisis in Europe. Now the Allies seem to have the situation in hand. Just before the convention in late July, he announces retirement. The nomination goes of for grabs, and Sen. Burton Wheeler of Montana gets it. (Wheeler had prepared to run if FDR stepped aside.)
Wheeler defeats rookie candidate Willkie in November. He pledges absolute U.S. neutrality in any foreign war. (Wheeler was a fanatical isolationist.)
Meanwhile, in Europe, a renewed German offensive, assisted by Italian and Spanish intervention, brings down France in late 1940. The French government withdraws to North Africa.
In a messy campaign, the Allies conquer Libya, but lose northern Morocco, but take the Canary Islands and Italian East Africa.
Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, and Greece remain neutral.
In July 1941, Germany invades the USSR, with complete tactical surprise, joine by Romania and Hungary. (Finland remains neutral.) The Axis drives deep into the country, but fails to take Moscow.
Also in July, Japan runs out of foreign exchange to pay for oil, and President Wheeler enforces a ban on any credits to a belligerent. Japan starts looking at the Southern Resource Area. Wheeler has previously said the US has no interest in defending colonial rule by other countries.
With that "green light", Japan conquers Indochina, Malaya, the East Indies, and the South Pacific in Sept-Dec 1941. Australia and New Zealand are defenseless against the Japanese Navy, and are forced to declare neutrality. (US opinion supports intervention - but President Wheeler sez "NO!" ... It's 7,000 miles away, anyhow.)
The U-boat war... Northern waters are safe, in summer, but Spain is a dangerous base. Wheeler insists on an Exclusion Zone west of Iceland, restricting U-boats operations.
India is restive, but Japanese massacres of Indian Army soldiers in Malaya promote loyalty to Britain. British forces hold Burma.
The Allies regain northern Morocco in spring 1942, as German forces are drawn to the Eastern Front, and take Spanish Morocco.
At this point, the war is a semi-stalemate. Japan is maximally extended; so is the European Axis. OTOH the Allies lack power to invade Europe or defeat the IJN. The USSR is hanging on.
Where from here? Who knows?
How about this? Two divergences.
1) 1936 - General Sanjurjo doesn't try to fly in Ansaldo's two-seater, and remains head of the Spanish army rebellion.
Effect: Sanjurjo is Caudillo after the Civil War, instead of the ultra cautious Franco.
2) 1939 - The transfer of ENIGMA decryption technology from Poland to France and Britain occurs two months earlier than OTL. An Anglo-French team is visiting the Poles in Warsaw when the war breaks out; they arrange for the Polish cipher operation to be evacuated by air to Britain with all their files, instead of by land via Romania.
Effect: The Anglo-French break into ENIGMA is moved up by about two months. By the beginning of March 1940, the Allies are reading the RED key (Luftwaffe operations) on a regular basis. As in OTL, this intelligence was codenamed ULTRA.
Scenario.
Forewarned, the Allies defeat the German invasion of Norway.
Due to the Norway fiasco, the German attack on France and the Low Countries is delayed two months.
When the Germans do strike in July, the Allies contain the attack.
FDR has put off deciding on a third term. He shouldn't run, but he may be needed due to the crisis in Europe. Now the Allies seem to have the situation in hand. Just before the convention in late July, he announces retirement. The nomination goes of for grabs, and Sen. Burton Wheeler of Montana gets it. (Wheeler had prepared to run if FDR stepped aside.)
Wheeler defeats rookie candidate Willkie in November. He pledges absolute U.S. neutrality in any foreign war. (Wheeler was a fanatical isolationist.)
Meanwhile, in Europe, a renewed German offensive, assisted by Italian and Spanish intervention, brings down France in late 1940. The French government withdraws to North Africa.
In a messy campaign, the Allies conquer Libya, but lose northern Morocco, but take the Canary Islands and Italian East Africa.
Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, and Greece remain neutral.
In July 1941, Germany invades the USSR, with complete tactical surprise, joine by Romania and Hungary. (Finland remains neutral.) The Axis drives deep into the country, but fails to take Moscow.
Also in July, Japan runs out of foreign exchange to pay for oil, and President Wheeler enforces a ban on any credits to a belligerent. Japan starts looking at the Southern Resource Area. Wheeler has previously said the US has no interest in defending colonial rule by other countries.
With that "green light", Japan conquers Indochina, Malaya, the East Indies, and the South Pacific in Sept-Dec 1941. Australia and New Zealand are defenseless against the Japanese Navy, and are forced to declare neutrality. (US opinion supports intervention - but President Wheeler sez "NO!" ... It's 7,000 miles away, anyhow.)
The U-boat war... Northern waters are safe, in summer, but Spain is a dangerous base. Wheeler insists on an Exclusion Zone west of Iceland, restricting U-boats operations.
India is restive, but Japanese massacres of Indian Army soldiers in Malaya promote loyalty to Britain. British forces hold Burma.
The Allies regain northern Morocco in spring 1942, as German forces are drawn to the Eastern Front, and take Spanish Morocco.
At this point, the war is a semi-stalemate. Japan is maximally extended; so is the European Axis. OTOH the Allies lack power to invade Europe or defeat the IJN. The USSR is hanging on.
Where from here? Who knows?
Garrison
Donor
I have to say I was kind of trying to come up with things that would work with the little scent The Red gave us.
I agree that a neutral US probably means Roosevelt is out of the picture but then that might mean no L-L so Britain and the USSR have problems. A way to offset that might be to have Germany actually do better during the invasion of France and prevent Operation Dynamo.
The failure of Dynamo is damaging to British morale. A few well connected people put out peace feelers without any authorization.
Hitler convinces himself that Britain is on the brink of collapse, and infects Mussolini with his enthusiasm. Hitler insists on driving on with Sealion and Goering promises to smash the RAF, and the Royal Navy for good measure.
Sealion is launched and is the utter catastrophe it was bound to be. German losses are high in men and equipment, especially as the British prove willing to use chemical weapons against the attackers.
To compound the Axis problems Mussolini insists on Attacking Egypt and Greece. O'Connor and the Western Desert Force perform as per OTL, better in fact since a battered German army can offer little support and Tripoli presents a soft target.
The British secure North Africa, The Greeks establish a solid defensive line but after this a period of stalemate ensues, broken when to the surprise of everyone, especially Stalin, Germany invades the USSR.
One piece of good news for the Germans after Sealion is that Hitler blames Goering for the whole fiasco and replaces him with an altogether more competent officer as head of the Luftwaffe.
I agree that a neutral US probably means Roosevelt is out of the picture but then that might mean no L-L so Britain and the USSR have problems. A way to offset that might be to have Germany actually do better during the invasion of France and prevent Operation Dynamo.
The failure of Dynamo is damaging to British morale. A few well connected people put out peace feelers without any authorization.
Hitler convinces himself that Britain is on the brink of collapse, and infects Mussolini with his enthusiasm. Hitler insists on driving on with Sealion and Goering promises to smash the RAF, and the Royal Navy for good measure.
Sealion is launched and is the utter catastrophe it was bound to be. German losses are high in men and equipment, especially as the British prove willing to use chemical weapons against the attackers.
To compound the Axis problems Mussolini insists on Attacking Egypt and Greece. O'Connor and the Western Desert Force perform as per OTL, better in fact since a battered German army can offer little support and Tripoli presents a soft target.
The British secure North Africa, The Greeks establish a solid defensive line but after this a period of stalemate ensues, broken when to the surprise of everyone, especially Stalin, Germany invades the USSR.
One piece of good news for the Germans after Sealion is that Hitler blames Goering for the whole fiasco and replaces him with an altogether more competent officer as head of the Luftwaffe.
I can't see the U.S. staying isolationist completely during the entire war. I think best case scenario is a WW1 type into where we show up 15 minutes into the finale and claim credit.