Let's say JFK decides to go after Cuba instead of Vietnam following Bay of Pigs. With a massive invasion and a Cuban insurgency, how would the war have finally ended and when?
How would a Vietnam-style invasion of Cuba after Bay of Pigs ended?
- Thread starter Happy Nihilist
- Start date
Okay, maybe "intervention" would have been a better term. There were obvious differences between the two countries, so I'm not making a direct analogy here. I guess my point is what happens if the military effort directed to Vietnam is directed to Cuba instead?
Given what I guesstimate to be Castro's legitimate popularity in Cuba at the time, you probably have roughly half the population willing either to fight against the Americans violently, or at least be totally adverse to co-operating in any way with the occupation, eg. insurgents could kill an unarmed off-duty US soldier and publically defile his body, and nobody in the village would be willing to do or say one single thing to help catch the culprits.
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Likely to be just as bloody as Vietnam, but without the open supply routes from the USSR that Vietnam enjoyed. Castro will probably be forced back into leading an insurgency and end up like FARC guerillas, able to avoid total destruction, but nowhere near able to unseat the US-backed government until the end of the Cold War made reconciliation a necessity.
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Garrison
Donor
Hand it over? if you mean that whatever government the Americans install might let the Mafia back in, quite possible, JFK putting the Mob in charge of Cuba? ASB, literally as it would require magic or mind control. And why would there be genocide if the locals were unhappy about organized crime muscling its way in? This scenario takes place in 1960 not 1860.
From my point of view, it wouldn't be easy, but not a "Vietnam", as you say, but more like a "Panama".
Cuba, although had far more population than other central american nations, lacked of equipment and resources to wage a war with the US. I could see something similar to Operation Just Cause being made, cutting the governmental head of the nation (maybe capturing Castro and his family, also important generals) to then proceed for a full occupation, and stabilization of the country.
This kind of situations would occur very often in Cuba, and due to the existence of powerful guerrilla groups, the initial support in favour of the US troops would be minimum, for not saying zero. That could change, if the US took the occupation seriously, and routed (by the least) the major terrorist and guerrilla groups, and invested some money in reconstruct the nation infrastructure and economy.
Cuba, although had far more population than other central american nations, lacked of equipment and resources to wage a war with the US. I could see something similar to Operation Just Cause being made, cutting the governmental head of the nation (maybe capturing Castro and his family, also important generals) to then proceed for a full occupation, and stabilization of the country.
This kind of situations would occur very often in Cuba, and due to the existence of powerful guerrilla groups, the initial support in favour of the US troops would be minimum, for not saying zero. That could change, if the US took the occupation seriously, and routed (by the least) the major terrorist and guerrilla groups, and invested some money in reconstruct the nation infrastructure and economy.
This is a solid response. I would also note that there are means to appease the Cuban population, even if they initially symphatize with Castro and are unwilling to support the United States; the 1965 occupation of the Dominican Republic, in particular, provides a good playbook to imagine how those post-invasion years would be.
As a comparativly small island nation easily blockaded by the US I agree that Cuba does not stand a chance to win a semi-conventional war in the same way as vietnam did. Its very likely to end up in a situation where the conventional part of the war is over comparativly quickly and afterwards an insurgency develops. Its then very difficult to predict how this will end as it depends on too many factors, but possible outcomes include a very long insurgency where the country does not expierience any true peace, some form of eventual peace agreement or a US withdrawel after too much bloodshed.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Not a Vietnam.
But Panama seems too easy.
Panama was a nothingburger insurgency-wise. It was Panamanian quiescence, Ruben Blades eccentric anti-American and failed candidacy, some anti-American feelings and sentiments dredged up from time to time, with none of it triumphing electorally for over a decade, and becoming a basis of an armed movement, well never.
Grenada was the same.
But Panama seems too easy.
Panama was a nothingburger insurgency-wise. It was Panamanian quiescence, Ruben Blades eccentric anti-American and failed candidacy, some anti-American feelings and sentiments dredged up from time to time, with none of it triumphing electorally for over a decade, and becoming a basis of an armed movement, well never.
Grenada was the same.
My guess is we win cuba in like two years but LBJ goes into vietnam "inspired" by the win in cuba once he gets his killer promotion. Probably escalates in 1964 instead of 1965, using it to get a bigger set of majorities in both houses. I guess national healthcare instead of just medicare/medicaid using those.
Terrorist attacks on the US mainland would probably result, with the resulting repression, paranoia and violence