How would a simultaneous French and Spanish civil wars play out?

[brunosouzzxx]

While Spain was plummeted in the horrors of war, France was on a tense situation, especially in Leom Blum's government. What if things got sour (either by an army coup or a stronger French-branded fascism) and civil war broke out in France too? How would this affect the Spanish war? What about Germany and WWII?

I'm thinking of a Socialist-Democrats(center/center-right) broad front against a fascist-Right wing one. Is that plausible?

I read Blum was very unpopular among French upper classes and many within the establishment even preferred Hitler to him, how would they divide in such a scenario?

 

[kham_coc]

That's a very interesting thought - it would quite plausibly speed up the Germans timeline, if France is in civil war the entirety of the rest of continental Europe is vulnerable to German intimidation, quite plausibly speeding up the Rhineland, Anschluss and uh Poland is not looking healthy with no French counterweight.
Then indochina comes to mind...

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

While Spain was plummeted in the horrors of war, France was on a tense situation, especially in Leom Blum's government. What if things got sour (either by an army coup or a stronger French-branded fascism) and civil war broke out in France too? How would this affect the Spanish war? What about Germany and WWII?

I'm thinking of a Socialist-Democrats(center/center-right) broad front against a fascist-Right wing one. Is that plausible?

I read Blum was very unpopular among French upper classes and many within the establishment even preferred Hitler to him, how would they divide in such a scenario?

Assuming they do so, because while the Third French Republic wasn't extremely stable it still wasn't as terrible as Spain and most generals believed in democracy.
Germany would be able to receive much more things ITTL as there is nobody to oppose Germany on the continent, also the nationalists might be funded by Mussolini and Hitler. It also depends who the colonies are loyal I would guess the reactions are mixed, Japan would probably do something with Indochina which would mean they are embargoed before the invasion of China which could mean that Japan doesn't try anything.

 

[Ambusher11]

Interestingly, Hitler in November 1937 stated that a French civil war would be one of two scenarios (the other being France getting into a war with Italy, which he predicted would happen in Summer 1938) that would cause him to immediately order an invasion of Czechoslovakia. Of course, Hitler ended up wanting to launch a war against Czechoslovakia in 1938 anyways (only for him to not get the war he wanted due to Britain and France pressuring the Czechs to give him the territory he was planning to use as a pretext for the war) even without either of these scenarios happening.

If a French civil war does end up occurring in 1936, Hitler might end up attempting to invade Czechoslovakia in 1937. Either that, or he waits until Germany has rearmed further and still tries to invade Czechoslovakia at around the same time as OTL in 1938.

 

[raharris1973]

Assuming they do so, because while the Third French Republic wasn't extremely stable it still wasn't as terrible as Spain and most generals believed in democracy.
Germany would be able to receive much more things ITTL as there is nobody to oppose Germany on the continent, also the nationalists might be funded by Mussolini and Hitler. It also depends who the colonies are loyal I would guess the reactions are mixed, Japan would probably do something with Indochina which would mean they are embargoed before the invasion of China which could mean that Japan doesn't try anything.

There is no guarantee that an American embargo of Japan is automatic if Japan moves on French Indochina in the 1930s, especially if it is before the Japanese invasion of China Proper. The US didn't embargo in OTL upon the occupation of Indochina because Indochina is so special, but because it was icing on the cake on top of years of prior aggression, time-coincident with a new treaty agreement with Germany and Italy, and appeared threatening in the direction of a British Empire that the US was trying to help stand alone against Hitler, in other words, unique context of 1940 and 1941, that would not necessarily be the same if the Japanese just did an opportunistic land grab in Indochina in 36 or 37.

 

[GSD310]

Interestingly, Hitler in November 1937 stated that a French civil war would be one of two scenarios (the other being France getting into a war with Italy, which he predicted would happen in Summer 1938) that would cause him to immediately order an invasion of Czechoslovakia. Of course, Hitler ended up wanting to launch a war against Czechoslovakia in 1938 anyways (only for him to not get the war he wanted due to Britain and France pressuring the Czechs to give him the territory he was planning to use as a pretext for the war) even without either of these scenarios happening.

If a French civil war does end up occurring in 1936, Hitler might end up attempting to invade Czechoslovakia in 1937. Either that, or he waits until Germany has rearmed further and still tries to invade Czechoslovakia at around the same time as OTL in 1938.

This is what I thought of as well. But does this mean the Anschluss gets delayed or butterflied because Hitler's focus is turned to Czechoslovakia?

 

[Ambusher11]

This is what I thought of as well. But does this mean the Anschluss gets delayed or butterflied because Hitler's focus is turned to Czechoslovakia?

Pretty sure the Anschluss would also happen at around the same time or earlier than the invasion of Czechoslovakia if Hitler decides that conditions are favorable due to France falling into civil war.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

There is no guarantee that an American embargo of Japan is automatic if Japan moves on French Indochina in the 1930s, especially if it is before the Japanese invasion of China Proper. The US didn't embargo in OTL upon the occupation of Indochina because Indochina is so special, but because it was icing on the cake on top of years of prior aggression, time-coincident with a new treaty agreement with Germany and Italy, and appeared threatening in the direction of a British Empire that the US was trying to help stand alone against Hitler, in other words, unique context of 1940 and 1941, that would not necessarily be the same if the Japanese just did an opportunistic land grab in Indochina in 36 or 37.

I'm pretty sure the US wouldn't appreciate this either.

 

[brunosouzzxx]

Would Germany try to intervene directly in France? If so, this probably would divert German aid away from Spain, meaning that the Republicans could end up winning?

 

[thaddeus]

While Spain was plummeted in the horrors of war, France was on a tense situation, especially in Leom Blum's government. What if things got sour (either by an army coup or a stronger French-branded fascism) and civil war broke out in France too? How would this affect the Spanish war? What about Germany and WWII?

I'm thinking of a Socialist-Democrats(center/center-right) broad front against a fascist-Right wing one. Is that plausible?

I read Blum was very unpopular among French upper classes and many within the establishment even preferred Hitler to him, how would they divide in such a scenario?

That's a very interesting thought - it would quite plausibly speed up the Germans timeline, if France is in civil war the entirety of the rest of continental Europe is vulnerable to German intimidation, quite plausibly speeding up the Rhineland, Anschluss and uh Poland is not looking healthy with no French counterweight.
Then indochina comes to mind...

it seems a (relatively) more successful Nationalist coup (led by Gen. Sanjurjo who served alongside Petain?) might prompt more support from the Blum French government to prevent a collapse of the Republican side, which would trigger events inside France from both sides.

Blum was gone by the middle of 1937 historically (with a brief 1938 redux), so there was a pretty unstable situation anyway? more plausible to have a period of unrest rather than a full blown civil war? there is a presidential election in early 1939, what was more of a figurehead position could be taken by Petain (do not know a more logical choice?) who could gather more power to himself.

can imagine an authoritarian French government being more anti-Communist to the point of allowing or not contesting German expansion into Eastern Europe, IDK how that translates with regard to Poland.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

can imagine an authoritarian French government being more anti-Communist to the point of allowing or not contesting German expansion into Eastern Europe, IDK how that translates with regard to Poland.

Being anti-communist and giving things to Nazi Germany are two different things, depends on who exactly takes power but it isn't impossible that a nationalistic government would give less to Hitler as they would fear that they might be overrun.

 

[kham_coc]

Being anti-communist and giving things to Nazi Germany are two different things, depends on who exactly takes power but it isn't impossible that a nationalistic government would give less to Hitler as they would fear that they might be overrun.

Sure but they might be faced with a fait acompli - Where Germany imposes whatever order it likes while France is busy, and when France is no longer busy, there is nothing it can do.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Sure but they might be faced with a fait acompli - Where Germany imposes whatever order it likes while France is busy, and when France is no longer busy, there is nothing it can do.

In that scenario I think Hitler would just focus on the USSR, and since nobody likes commies France probably doesn't support them.

 

[thaddeus]

can imagine an authoritarian French government being more anti-Communist to the point of allowing or not contesting German expansion into Eastern Europe, IDK how that translates with regard to Poland.

Being anti-communist and giving things to Nazi Germany are two different things, depends on who exactly takes power but it isn't impossible that a nationalistic government would give less to Hitler as they would fear that they might be overrun.

Sure but they might be faced with a fait acompli - Where Germany imposes whatever order it likes while France is busy, and when France is no longer busy, there is nothing it can do.

my speculation was for a French State close to the Spanish Nationalist regime, so a regime not seeking alliance with the USSR, likely not wanting to return any African colonies to Germany, and possibly not as concerned with their patchwork of alliances in Eastern Europe.

edit. was alluding to Blum discussing the return of some former German colonies and that any authoritarian French regime that came to power would (just IMO) be less likely to agree to that.

also any regime might reckon they are unable to intervene in Eastern Europe, for many of the same reasons Spain remained neutral in WWII.

 

[The Link]

and uh Poland is not looking healthy with no French counterweight.

Actually, it's very likely that in TTL Poland simply joins the axis. Back in 1925 France signed with Germany the Treaty of Locarno in which the French normalised the relations with the Weimar Republic, but at the same time the Weimar Republic objected to renounce the territorial demands upon Poland, yet France didn't care and signed the Treaty of Locarno anyway. Then in 1933 Piłsudski proposed the franco-polish preemptive strike against Germany to overthrow Hitler, and France objected. Both of these two events made Piłsudski assume that the alliance with France is way too uncertain, and so Piłsudski decided to instead establish the good relations with the III Reich, and Hitler agreed, because he hoped to have Poland on his side in the invasion against the Soviet Union.

While in OTL Poland (or to be more precise, Piłsudski's successors) still had some slight hope that France will nevertheless aid Poland, the french civil war will dispel any doubts ultimately. Now it's absolutely certain that no french help will ever come, so once Hitler demands Danzig and the polish membership in the anti-comintern pact, Poland agrees.

 

[kham_coc]

Now it's absolutely certain that no french help will ever come, so once Hitler demands Danzig and the polish membership in the anti-comintern pact, Poland agrees.

Entirely plausible, but that would require the Polish government to be more competent than I would give it credit for.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

If a French civil war does end up occurring in 1936, Hitler might end up attempting to invade Czechoslovakia in 1937. Either that, or he waits until Germany has rearmed further and still tries to invade Czechoslovakia at around the same time as OTL in 1938.

Knowing Hitler, if the Czechoslovaks don't give him the Sudetenland he would launch an invasion of Czechoslovakia very soon though that would probably fail

 

[Two fingers awry]

If a French civil war occured in 1936 the lessons learned ,ie better use of armour and artillery. Plus 100 of thousands of trained battle hardened troops make ww2 not good for Germany . Fighting half trained soldiers in OTL which the majority of French forces where in 1940 , instead fighting battle hardened troops with 2 or 3 years active service useing radios to HQ instead of dispatch riders, improvements in fighter and bomber aircraft, tanks using on board radios Germany will not get the OTL cakewalk in France.