How would a defeated CP Italy be treated?

[Snowstalker]

Italy joins the Central Powers in 1914 or 1915 but suffers from a British blockade plus its colonies being seized, and fails to make much of a dent into the Western Front and surrenders in the fall of 1918 after several things go as OTL (Russian Revolution, American intervention). We can assume that Italy is forced to pay reparations and loses its colonies, but:

1. For the most part I assume Italy's colonies would be partitioned between Britain and France, but would we see something like Greece taking the Dodecanese or Ethiopia (which I feel may be bribed into joining the Entente ITTL) being granted part or all of Eritrea?

2. Would France seek any territorial gains from Italy proper, like the Aosta valley?

3. Would Italy still end up gaining territory at the expense of Austria (Trieste/Trentino)?

 

[Historyrookie]

I guess not particularly bad, for the same reasons it was not treated particularly well in victory: italy is what it is, natural frontiers are there west, north and east. it could very well gaining all trentino/south tyrol and trieste in defeat as they gained it in victory.

colonies, on the other hand, would probably be gone, although probably no one was particularly interested in lybia...

Truly not a very sound idea to enter in wwi for italy...

 

[anotherlurker]

Loss of colonies + some ban on annexing the Italian bits of failing A-H i'd guess. Were there any French ideas regarding Sardinia? If so then it could be annexed.

 

[pjmidd]

Loss of colonies is a given , France/Britain throw dice on who gets Libya and who gets Eritrea. Greece only gets the Dodenanese for free if they joined the war, otherwise some payment/concession will be asked for. Italy is not going to get any land from A-H, the Entente gains nothing. What it got OTL will either stay with Austria or join what becomes Yugoslavia ( Trieste would end up as part of Slovenia )

 

[Analytical Engine]

What about Aosta Valley? Would France demand a plebiscite on whether it would stay with Italy or to join with France?

Libya probably gets split - Cyrenaica going to Britain, Fezzan and Tripolitania going to France.

Britain probably gains Italian Somaliland. Maybe it gains a little less land elsewhere as a result?

Western Eritrea probably gets attached to Anglo-Egyptian Sudan. The remainder either goes to Ethiopia in its entirety, or split with France - Ethiopia gets a coastline in either case.

Greece probably gains the Dodecanese one way or another.

I'm not sure who gets the Italian concession in Tientsin ITTL. Italy gained the A-H concession IOTL (they were adjacent). Maybe Japan or France gets both the Italian and Austrian concessions, since they were also adjacent? Or would China take them, like they did with the German one?

 

[Lalli]

- Libya is divided between France and United Kingdom.
- Eritrea is either divided between France and United Kingdom or given to Ethiopia.
- United Kingdom takes Italian Somaliland.
- Greece takes Dodecanesia if joins. Otherwise Brits take that.
- Italy might lost Aosta to France. If France wants to be hellish strict it too takes Piemonte and Liguria.
- Brits might take Sicily but it not be sure.
- Italy is barred from any land from collapsing A-H.
- Italy pays massive reparations.
- Some military restrictions.

There might be even more rapid rise of Fascism.

 

[marathag]

Any losses of territory for Italy depends on what they do in the war, IMO

They hardly have a presence in Libya besides an occupation force, and despite being in Somalia since the 1880s, had hardly any reach outside of coastal areas, so there isn't any real loss, except for Pride.

Might see Trieste be part of a larger Slovenia.

 

[Vylon Disigma]

Libya is unlikely to be partitioned between UK and France à la Sykes-Picot just granted to whom ever occupies whatever parts. Incase Tripolitania and Cyrenaica are occupied by the same power some small Libyan territory will probably be granted to the other. It's unclear weather anyone would bother invading Libya though, Italians definitely not in a position to attack into Tunisia or Egypt so not highly dangerous but for bases for Italian navy I guess. I reckon some territory will be taken from metropolitan Italy as punishment though nothing big.

 

[FBKampfer]

I will say a CP Italy losing is almost ASB.


Entente needs to have the same level of luck the Germans had in 1940 in order to win.

 

[Pauh the federalist]

Eastern Libya likely gets attached to British Egypt which has butterfly potential post decolonization.

 

[Lalli]

I will say a CP Italy losing is almost ASB.


Entente needs to have the same level of luck the Germans had in 1940 in order to win.

Italians had great difficulties fight with Austrians so how they even can help CPs to win? And if USA still enters to the war, CPs are pretty much done.

 

[Albidoom]

- Brits might take Sicily but it not be sure.

Indeed Sicily would be unlikely, but Pantelleria, sitting about half way between Sicily and Tunisia would surely be taken, only question is would France or Britain take it. And the Pelagie Islands probably as well, though they are not in such a strategically important location.

 

[Ramontxo]

Italians had great difficulties fight with Austrians so how they even can help CPs to win? And if USA still enters to the war, CPs are pretty much done.

They have and easily defensible mountain frontier with France that still would mean having the Entente to man an second front. AH on the other hand would be able to concentrate more troops in the east front (and with the Italians helping against the Serb even more). Giving how bad 1915 was OTL for the Russian Empire this alone could very well became a game changer. Any way this TL equivalent of the Brest-litovsk treaty would surely happen sooner maybe even butterflying away the submarine campaign an the USA entering the war. Just imagine the 1918 spring offensive launched sooner in two fronts against a even more stretched out Entente

 

[Falecius]

Italians had great difficulties fight with Austrians so how they even can help CPs to win? And if USA still enters to the war, CPs are pretty much done.

Well, on the other hand, CP Italy vastly improves the position of the Austrians. The Eastern Front is an even more clear thrashing for the Russians, also add the fact the Romania is a lot less likely to enter the war here since Austria and Bulgaria can immediately bring forces to occupy it, so it's either neutral Romania or CP Romania, the latter in turn making the Russians suffer even more.
CP Italy makes Gallipoli landings less likely which improves the CP overall strategic position in the Balkans and frees Ottoman forces for the Armenian front or elsewhere.
Of course Italian colonies would be gone, likely occupied mostly by the British. I see little reason for Ethiopia to enter the war outright, but there may be a more extended version of the Civil War with more clearly defined pro-Entente vs. pro-CP sides, and possible British intervention. I doubt Ethiopia would get parts of Eritrea as a consequence, the Entente would just be able to make it more subservient.
The Alpine front would drain French troops othewise available for the Western Front or the Balkans, even if they are successful in the Alps, losses would be greivous and actual gains limited.
It is true that Italy can't do much without coal and has not coal if at war with Britain, so it is correct not to expect any great performance, but even then, the strategic equation shifts hugely to the advantage of the CP.

 

[ghilonif]

Well, on the other hand, CP Italy vastly improves the position of the Austrians. The Eastern Front is an even more clear thrashing for the Russians, also add the fact the Romania is a lot less likely to enter the war here since Austria and Bulgaria can immediately bring forces to occupy it, so it's either neutral Romania or CP Romania, the latter in turn making the Russians suffer even more.
The Alpine front would drain French troops othewise available for the Western Front or the Balkans, even if they are successful in the Alps, losses would be greivous and actual gains limited.
It is true that Italy can't do much without coal and has not coal if at war with Britain, so it is correct not to expect any great performance, but even then, the strategic equation shifts hugely to the advantage of the CP.

Coal could be given by Germany, not that they had much to share. But even then, Austria position is greatly improved, especially in 1916 greatly improves, since no Trentino Offensive/Strafexpedition-> more divisions against Brusilov Offensive->Less support from Germany, which could turn into a strategic victory at Verdun.

 

[ferdi254]

CP Italy 1915 means CP wins latest 1916.

 

[BigBlueBox]

Italians had great difficulties fight with Austrians so how they even can help CPs to win? And if USA still enters to the war, CPs are pretty much done.

By 1915 Italy isn't going to join the CP. If they join in 1914, then depending on when they join it force France to redeploy its forces south, resulting in Germany dealing a knockout blow at the Battle of the Marne or winning the Race to the Sea. Even if it doesn't though, CP Italy frees up a great amount of Austrian troops. Serbia falls several months ahead of schedule and Bulgaria joins the CP early. Greece stays neutral and the Ottomans still join the CP. Austria will only be fighting on one front, so it will be a major help to the Germans instead of a liability. The Brusilov Offensive would be suicidal in this scenario; it would likely be butterflied away but if it did occur it would completely shatter the Russian Army. Romania is going to stay neutral or even join the CP. The end result is a Central Powers victory long before the America would join the war.

The only way the Entente could win with a CP Italy is America joining the Entente right after Italy joins the CP or some pre-1900 PoD that results in a much more stable and much more industrialized Russia.

 

[cjc]

Gust to give one example,the Bosilav offensive was so sucsesful becuse the intiere eastern front of the austrea army was diluted of both troops and most importantly artillery for an "revenge" assault on italy, whith Italy on cp's side then that offence isn't likely to do nearly as well and can probably be stoped using A-H troops without having to call for German assistance which effects the western front significantly. Not including the effect of having France need at lest 25 divitions Warth of troops to garde the southern border (half of what A-H needed) but the OP wanted to now how Italy would be treated if it lost ww1 on the side of the cp, not if it was very likely.

 

[Borya]

If Italy CP can we still limit CP to 4? Can German switch to entante? What o us turkey Bulgaria or Austria?

 

[FBKampfer]

Not only does a CP Italy vastly improve AH's position, but suddenly the Entente has to commit a lot more to the Mediterran.

Suddenly the CP has 6 Dreadnoughts and a battlecruiser in theater, 3 buildin, and much more freedom of operation.


Not to mention that most major ethnic minority in the US has their homeland either IN the CP or pro-CP neutral. Political pressure to stay neutral gets even stronger.