So, looking at MacArthur and his Korea situation, along with Cuba, I was wondering. What are some plausible ways to trigger WWIII in the 1950s - 1960s that avoids using Cuba as the trigger? What are some PoDs that would have sent the planet into a Third World War and NOT include Cuba as the PoD?
How to (Plausibly) start WWIII: Early Cold War Edition
- Thread starter Ace009
- Start date
Well, Korea, definitely. That would be especially nasty. A Berlin Crisis handled poorly by someone like Scoop Jackson would be disastrous.
marathag
Banned
USSR starting WWIII anytime before 1966 is disastrous for the USSR, when they had enough warheads to do to the USA, what the USA had been able to do since 1957, completely wreck the country beyond realistic recovery for decades
1957, USA 6044 warheads, Soviet 660
1966 USA 32193 warheads, Soviet 7089.
I use 1957 as that's when Ike first brought up what would later be called 'Overkill' with Curtiss LeMay.
Then there's the issue that the Soviets couldn't deliver many warheads to CONUS till 1964
USSR didn't surpass the US warhead count until 1978
Potential flashpoints?
- Korea, 1950 onwards
- East Germany, 1953
- Matsu and Quemoy, 1954
- Hungary, 1956
- Suez, 1957
- Lebanon, 1958
- Matsu and Quemoy, 1958
- Berlin, 1961
- Vietnam
It's enough to make sure everyone who needs to be dead gets killed, then have some left afterwards in case the survivors get funny ideas.
marathag
Banned
Overtargeting was an issue with 7000, with over a hundred Megaton for the Moscow Metro area.
It got far more each year, til SIOP 61. US warhead counts started to drop after the decision that scouring Moscow down to bedrock wouldn't 'win' WWIII any more than just knocking down every building with a 2x safety margin.
The Soviets never dropped their warhead numbers till the '80s and the final round of arms control treaties starting in 1986
An Oklahoman
Banned
Korea:
1.) Communist China gets pushed back by the US and the Soviets either have the choice of letting the DPRK and the PRC getting pushed back to the Yalu or intervening.
2.) Stalin survives his fatal heart attack and then procedes to invade the Western Europe while the US is "distracted" in Korea.
3.) US starts bombing industrial targets in China proper. THe PRC responds with an intervention into northern Vietnam. You now have a general war in Asia going down.
So, that American General (try and guess whom) using nuclear weapons against the KPA and PLA in Manchuria PoD = possibly not the best idea for plausibility, is it?
An Oklahoman
Banned
Contrary to popular belief MacArthur and Curtis LeMay aren't psycopaths who would pull a "General Ripper." They are disciplined soldiers who respect the authority of the President in military matters.
marathag
Banned
General Power, however....
"I used to worry about General Power. I used to worry that General Power was not stable. I used to worry about the fact that he had control over so many weapons and weapon systems and could, under certain conditions, launch the force. Back in the days before we had real positive control [i.e., PAL locks], SAC had the power to do a lot of things, and it was in his hands, and he knew it."
— General Horace M. Wade, (at that time subordinate of General Power)
MacArthur wanted authority to go all out against China; when Truman didn't give it to him, he seems to have lived with that fact. If a sitting President had wanted to give it to him, LeMay would have objected most vociferously to the idea on the grounds that it would be weakening the blow aimed at the USSR proper.
What about the Berlin Blockade? Couldn't that have triggered a general war? Someone intercepts someone else a little harder, events start to escalate, next thing you know someone on the ground is seeing shadows and fires on the other side...
Marilyn Monroe is rushed to hospital in 1962 after an overdose - but she survives, and enters a sanatorium to recover.
October 1963 Andre Laguerre decides that with the sporting calendar being slow in the winter months, to add a swimsuit model to the cover of Sports Illustrated with a five page spread - and the recovering Monroe is grateful for the opportunity.
November 1963 Oswald trips walking past a newsstand when distracted by the swimsuit cover on the way into the Book Depository and his rifle has an accidental discharge. The police are called and he is arrested. Kennedy's visit proceeds without incident.
March 1964 US troops arrive in Vietnam to undertake direct combat roles.
October 1964 Leonid Brezhnev ousts Nikita Khruschchev from the Premiership of the Soviet Union in a bloodless coup.
November 1964 Goldwater beats Kennedy in the 1964 election after an opportune revelation of Monroe's affairs with both Kennedy brothers.
March 1965 a US Marine force lands at Haiphong, while the 1st Cavalry (Airmobile) is dropped north and west of Hanoi.
Warsaw Pact forces are instructed to raise their readiness states. NATO forces do the same.
PLA units cross the border into North Vietnam. PLAAF planes engage in operations over North Vietnam.
April 1965 Haiphong is secured and USN Seabees restore the port to some working capacity. US Army units stage in, pass through the USMC lines, and push on Hanoi. First clashes between American and Chinese troops.
May 1965 Fighting around Hanoi stalemates due to the intervention of Chinese PLA divisions.
US ROE are widened to allow the engagement of PLAAF planes over PRC territory. Previously US warplanes had been instructed to break off pursuit if fleeing PLAAF craft reached the Chinese border.
PLAAF planes launch their first attack on the CVBG at Yankee Station. The raid suffers heavy casualties, and none of the carriers is struck, although some of the CAP are shot down, ditch after damage, or run out of fuel, and two escorts are bombed, with Albany eventually sinking the next day.
Operation Cornerback, the bombing campaign against targets in the People's Republic of China, commences, focusing primarily on air defences and airfields. US forces in Japan (including Okinawa) and Korea do not take direct part for now.
The US State Department passes a message to the Chinese embassy in London that if PLA forces do not withdraw from Vietnam, the US will consider any and all measures to defeat them.
Fighting continues with heavy casualties in the 1st Cavalry Division (Airmobile) when they are engaged by Chinese armor, though the assault is eventually repelled, mostly through the generous use of close air support.
With the prospect of three more Chinese divisions moving into contact with the air cav, USN A-5 Vigilantes off Constellation conduct nuclear strike missions against PLA troop concentrations inside North Vietnam.
The US Ambassador to the Soviet Union is summoned and instructed to inform the US government that further escalation in Vietnam will not be tolerated, before news of the Vigilante missions has reached Moscow. When the news does break (the A-5s were in the air when the summons arrived at the embassy, and the ambassador was not informed of the mission at that time), Goldwater and Brezhnev have a strained conversation.
Complicated exchanges with ambassadors in Moscow, Bonn, Paris, and London leave the European powers unclear as to whether Soviet response to US escalation in South East Asia will be in Europe, despite European non-involvement in Vietnam. The Europeans believe that they have communicated to Gromyko that Paris and London are unwavering in their committment to the collective defence of NATO borders, i.e. they will go to war over Germany.
US forces (mostly concerned with logistics and resupply) in Haiphong take heavy casualties when a PLAAF Tu-16 drops a nuclear weapon over the harbor.
A submarine is detected near the Yankee Station group and destroyed with a nuclear depth bomb.
Warsaw Pact forces open with nuclear and chemical attacks on NATO airbases and troop concentrations in Germany, with the Politburo having come to the belief that Goldwater will use nuclear arms to knock over dominoes in the far east - Vietnam then Korea and China to split away the USSR's allies lest they suffer the same fate, and ultimately isolate and destroy the Soviet Union.
Vera Lynn sings "We'll Meet Again."
October 1963 Andre Laguerre decides that with the sporting calendar being slow in the winter months, to add a swimsuit model to the cover of Sports Illustrated with a five page spread - and the recovering Monroe is grateful for the opportunity.
November 1963 Oswald trips walking past a newsstand when distracted by the swimsuit cover on the way into the Book Depository and his rifle has an accidental discharge. The police are called and he is arrested. Kennedy's visit proceeds without incident.
March 1964 US troops arrive in Vietnam to undertake direct combat roles.
October 1964 Leonid Brezhnev ousts Nikita Khruschchev from the Premiership of the Soviet Union in a bloodless coup.
November 1964 Goldwater beats Kennedy in the 1964 election after an opportune revelation of Monroe's affairs with both Kennedy brothers.
March 1965 a US Marine force lands at Haiphong, while the 1st Cavalry (Airmobile) is dropped north and west of Hanoi.
Warsaw Pact forces are instructed to raise their readiness states. NATO forces do the same.
PLA units cross the border into North Vietnam. PLAAF planes engage in operations over North Vietnam.
April 1965 Haiphong is secured and USN Seabees restore the port to some working capacity. US Army units stage in, pass through the USMC lines, and push on Hanoi. First clashes between American and Chinese troops.
May 1965 Fighting around Hanoi stalemates due to the intervention of Chinese PLA divisions.
US ROE are widened to allow the engagement of PLAAF planes over PRC territory. Previously US warplanes had been instructed to break off pursuit if fleeing PLAAF craft reached the Chinese border.
PLAAF planes launch their first attack on the CVBG at Yankee Station. The raid suffers heavy casualties, and none of the carriers is struck, although some of the CAP are shot down, ditch after damage, or run out of fuel, and two escorts are bombed, with Albany eventually sinking the next day.
Operation Cornerback, the bombing campaign against targets in the People's Republic of China, commences, focusing primarily on air defences and airfields. US forces in Japan (including Okinawa) and Korea do not take direct part for now.
The US State Department passes a message to the Chinese embassy in London that if PLA forces do not withdraw from Vietnam, the US will consider any and all measures to defeat them.
Fighting continues with heavy casualties in the 1st Cavalry Division (Airmobile) when they are engaged by Chinese armor, though the assault is eventually repelled, mostly through the generous use of close air support.
With the prospect of three more Chinese divisions moving into contact with the air cav, USN A-5 Vigilantes off Constellation conduct nuclear strike missions against PLA troop concentrations inside North Vietnam.
The US Ambassador to the Soviet Union is summoned and instructed to inform the US government that further escalation in Vietnam will not be tolerated, before news of the Vigilante missions has reached Moscow. When the news does break (the A-5s were in the air when the summons arrived at the embassy, and the ambassador was not informed of the mission at that time), Goldwater and Brezhnev have a strained conversation.
Complicated exchanges with ambassadors in Moscow, Bonn, Paris, and London leave the European powers unclear as to whether Soviet response to US escalation in South East Asia will be in Europe, despite European non-involvement in Vietnam. The Europeans believe that they have communicated to Gromyko that Paris and London are unwavering in their committment to the collective defence of NATO borders, i.e. they will go to war over Germany.
US forces (mostly concerned with logistics and resupply) in Haiphong take heavy casualties when a PLAAF Tu-16 drops a nuclear weapon over the harbor.
A submarine is detected near the Yankee Station group and destroyed with a nuclear depth bomb.
Warsaw Pact forces open with nuclear and chemical attacks on NATO airbases and troop concentrations in Germany, with the Politburo having come to the belief that Goldwater will use nuclear arms to knock over dominoes in the far east - Vietnam then Korea and China to split away the USSR's allies lest they suffer the same fate, and ultimately isolate and destroy the Soviet Union.
Vera Lynn sings "We'll Meet Again."
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LeMay, I basically agree - though I can imagine circumstances extreme enough that he might decide to act unilaterally, if he was convinced a Russian attack was imminent and the POTUS refused to preempt. MacArthur - I don't think it's a coincidence that the US nuclear weapons were deployed in Guam and Okinawa the same month he was fired. Whether or not he was a Powers-type, I think Truman thought he was.
marathag
Banned
Though by OTL 1965 Brezhnev would have pulled up a chair and asked for a big bucket of Popcorn to watch Uncle Sam Nuke PLA forces.
The nukes weren't deployed on his orders or under his command though.
That is an interesting question. On the one hand, the Sino-Soviet split was still largely happening behind closed doors (so to speak) in '65 but it was certainly happening. Would the Soviets be willing to let the Chinese hang out to dry, thereby pushing it into the open that the Communist Bloc was not unified like their propaganda pretended? It was the Chinese who OTL made that final breach in '69, after all.
On the other hand, the Sino-Soviet Split was happening. The Soviets and Chinese were well on their way to hating each other. And letting the Americans bleed themselves a little knocking down the Chinese "revisionists" would have some appeal to the realpolitikers on the Politburo.
So it's not a 100% sure thing the Soviets would let the Chinese hang, but it certainly is plausible... maybe even likely.
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I remember reading or hearing (though I can't remember where) that Stalin gave orders to resist any attempt by the West to force a land route through to Berlin unless it looked like a general mobilisation, in which case the matter should be referred to Moscow. That implies that he would have been prepared to back down or at least negotiate if put under extreme pressure - which given the state of the Soviet economy and nation, and the US monopoly on atomic weapons at the time, is not too surprising. Western access to Berlin simply wasn't worth fighting a war for to Moscow - self evidently, as if it was then they'd have shot the aircraft down.
An 'accident' wouldn't have likely been the sort of trigger it would have been in the 1950s or 1960s when both sides were twitchy about the others' nuclear arsenals. For one thing, all nations had recently sustained massive casualties in WWII and life was cheaper than it later became (and certainly cheaper than it is now), but mostly there'd have been enough time for diplomats or leaders to smooth things over.
A direct WWIII scenario is only likely IMO out of a direct US-USSR standoff after the late 1950s, or arising out of a pre-existing secondary war escalating out of control.