How to make a successful Great Leap Forward?

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So we know that the Great Leap Forward didn't accomplish what it was meant to, even Mao had said so, and, directly or indirectly, caused many deaths.

Now, how can we still have a Great Leap, but a successful one? I believe it has the potential to be an *incredibly* great policy for China's growth, but if we were to change history, what could be done?
 
The fundemental idea of the Great Leap Forward is that you can substitute technology with infinite amounts of labour. Basically the human wave tactic of economics. The Soviets used a similar concept for gulag labour projects.

Now the thing is, unless the goal is to kill a lot of people working on cutting trees in Siberia, that method of labour stopped being economically competitive somewhere around the 1800s in Georgia. And while I guess subsituting machinery with labour should have at least some circumstances where it could logicaly work, if you take hundreds of thousand of farmers out to work on... idk, an irrigation canal or so since its something that can be dug by hand, then there's not enough people growing crops in the field. Which in the case of the Great Leap Forward is more noticable since the fundemental idea is that you're taking a lot of labour out.

So I don't know, for this alternate Great Leap Forward, have them grow cotton? Cash crops that you can sell for hard currency to buy the actual technological machinery you need.
 
There was a goal to it besides a purge of political and cultural dissidents?
I think you might be thinking of the Cultural Revolution.

Though killing lots of people was also an intended feature of the Great Leap.

Like I said above, The Great Leap Forward is more akin to the industrialization of the Soviet Union. So the thinking goes, China needs to industrialize for a modern economy, but is unable to purchase industrial and agricultural machinery. To bypass the fact there's no money and people won't sell to them, the socialist theory is you can substitute mechanical process given an infinite amount of labour.

Except while Stalin actually ended up with some factories after his famine, Mao just ended up starving a lot of people. And still didn't end up with any factories.
 
Except while Stalin actually ended up with some factories after his famine, Mao just ended up starving a lot of people. And still didn't end up with any factories.
Well the Soviets did at least have the advantage of realising that production comes best from factories, not back-yard foundries.
 
Best way would be making industrialization slower process and ratherly bring industry and steel from foreign countries. People should have educate to factory jobs instead throwing people from food production. And government should have use economic experts instead making itself command economy politics. And more realistic goals.
 
Going from faint memory, I seem to remember that there were some sane proposals for the Great Leap Forward (that looked more like the conventional Soviet approach of getting excess peasant labour off the land and into cities to build heavy industry) that modern historians thought would have worked, but were overruled by Mao because he wanted to overtake the Soviets, not follow in their wake.

fasquardon
 
China needs higher tech levels. And maybe not literally trying to copy and paste the success from Yan'an.
What's with all the Mao hate? Long live Chiang the glorious leader is it?
 
Okay so what I've heard from this and other sites is that we need to:

1. Have people actually report accurate grain harvest numbers so that they don't accidentally draft too many farmers from the countryside to work on projects.

2. Have Mao be slightly less anti-Soviet, so he is alright with industrializing in the Soviet manner for China's benefit.

3. Have China import more foreign technicians to help them industrialize.

4. Keep the factories in the cities, not in rural backyards.

Anything else?
 
Well the fundamental premise of the Great Leap Forward was flawed. You cannot substitute expertise with large numbers. Kicking out the Soviet experts, who might've helped implement the plans more successfully and/or draw up more realistic plans, didn't help. But ultimately it was never going to work because it was based on a flawed understanding of agriculture, industry, and logistics.

But the thing that led the GLF to kill millions of people wasn't the plan itself. In a more accountable system, the government would soon realize how much a disaster the program was becoming and would bring it to a halt. But instead what you had were thousands of party cadres systematically cooking the books and lying about the progress happening in their village, county, province, etc. both out of a sense of fear (they didn't want to lose their job) and self-promotion (they wanted to acquire prestige and get promoted within the party). There was no oversight, no system of accountability, and no real way to correct the situation quickly even when it became apparent that stuff was going wrong. Instead you had party leadership looking at the (falsified) reports coming in and thinking that the Great Leap Forward was a great success! So they would then respond by raising quotas even higher, forcing the party cadres to produce more and more even as they had actually failed to meet the earlier quota.

Of course the ironic thing is that if the GLF is less of a disaster, it will only empower Mao further. IOTL the failure of the GLF seriously discredited Mao within party leadership and allowed for his rivals to take effective control of the party from him, a struggle which even then lasted over a decade and resulted in the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. If Mao is never discredited so thoroughly, he will continue to effectively be able to rule by decree, and you can sure expect further Great Leaps Forward or worse.
 
Accepting that you can't just will a nation into achieving several centuries worth of development into a bit over a decade would be the first step. Having Mao less distrustful of technical experts and intellectuals in general would also help. Mao was more or less clueless about metallurgy and nobody was brave enough to inform him that backyard furnaces where unsuitable for producing steel. This ultimately lead to vast numbers of pots, pans and farming tools being destroyed to produce worthless pig iron. Similarly, avoiding pseudoscience like Lysenkoism would have prevented the famine.

But the thing that led the GLF to kill millions of people wasn't the plan itself. In a more accountable system, the government would soon realize how much a disaster the program was becoming and would bring it to a halt. But instead what you had were thousands of party cadres systematically cooking the books and lying about the progress happening in their village, county, province, etc. both out of a sense of fear (they didn't want to lose their job) and self-promotion (they wanted to acquire prestige and get promoted within the party). There was no oversight, no system of accountability, and no real way to correct the situation quickly even when it became apparent that stuff was going wrong. Instead you had party leadership looking at the (falsified) reports coming in and thinking that the Great Leap Forward was a great success! So they would then respond by raising quotas even higher, forcing the party cadres to produce more and more even as they had actually failed to meet the earlier quota.

True. But I also seem to remember reading that Mao was not unduly concerned when reports of famine finally did start reaching him.
 
China needs higher tech levels. And maybe not literally trying to copy and paste the success from Yan'an. What's with all the Mao hate? Long live Chiang the glorious leader is it?

More Chiang was the lesser of two evils. At least he wasn't stupid enough to try backyard foundries melting hoes into steel ingots. Sure it needs to replace the hoes with tractors and it takes steel to do that, but until those tractors are actually made you need the hoes.
 
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Riain

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I'd suggest something akin to Stalin's massive industrialisation in the 30s, but Russia had a reasonable industrial base to build upon so I don't know if China could do the same.
 
I'd suggest something akin to Stalin's massive industrialisation in the 30s, but Russia had a reasonable industrial base to build upon so I don't know if China could do the same.

Russia industrialized faster just before WWI than under Stalin so I don't know how much that will help.
 

Riain

Banned
Russia industrialized faster just before WWI than under Stalin so I don't know how much that will help.

That's right, but I don't know what level China had reached by the time of the GLF, were they as industrialised as Russia was in 1914? If not no alternative GLF can occur with any real effectiveness.
 
I'd suggest something akin to Stalin's massive industrialisation in the 30s, but Russia had a reasonable industrial base to build upon so I don't know if China could do the same.
Well people are still going to starve. Russian industrialization was literally take all the grain from the peasants, trade for hard currency.

For China the problem with imitating it, besides Mao's ideological based economics for overtaking rather than emulating the Soviets, is the west doesn't want to trade heavy machinery with China during the time period anyways.
 
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