How to increase Japanese shipping capacity pre-WW2
- Thread starter SAVORYapple
- Start date
Put less effort into building ships for the navy. Waste less money on pointless adventures in China.
sharlin
Banned
Thing is where are you getting the steel to build these ships from? If you try to take them from the navy you're liable to have an accident, like landing on six bullets and then having a katana fall and cut your head off. Same with the army. The Japanese can not do one thing without buggering up the other options such are their resources limited.
This idea might have some merit. There were a lot of ship-building firms going through hard times in the 1930's, and any contracts at all were better than no contracts. So if Japanese companies placed contracts at struggling yards in Europe, say, they might be able to get more ships without having to use their own industrial capacity to do so. The question then becomes, of course, how do they get a) the forward thinking required for such a plan and b) the funds to put it into action?
BlondieBC
Banned
You don't even have to wait until the 1930's. German shipyards had spare capacity after WW1, and good prices AFAIK. The main issues are generating a trade surplus to pay for them combined with Japan's commitment to be #2 largest merchant marine. Once you get those items, Japan will simply be able to pull back its freighters in the 6 months of planning for the war. You need someone who understands Japan's balance of trade to find out if it would be possible to pay for the ships. As others have stated, it will difficult to find the steel and dock space for domestic construction.
If Japan were able to generate that balance of trade, that would change everything. They were fast running out of hard currency as was.
Mind you, a Japan that suppressed the junior military officers who were constantly assassinating sane people, then put far more effort into commerce and building ships would be a far better place. If they can do that, they've probably reined in the worst of the militarists, and might well not 'need' to invade further. Heck, they could sell shipping to the Brits, possibly even the US.
The Japanese replaced the majority of their merchant fleet prior to WW II. Perhaps a better question would be how can they protect said merchant fleet more effectively?
Putting some effort into anti-submarine warfare would be a start. It has been a while since I read up on the subject, but from what I remember, the Japanese put little effort into ASW which allowed American subs many opportunities to sink merchant shipping. If the Japanese do improve their ASW capabilities, they can avoid some losses.
I read something on another thread, I think it's buried somewhere in The Whale has Wings TL that before the War the IJN's leading ASW expert presented a plan for a convoy system and for a cheap escort ship that could be turned out in large numbers, rather like the RN's OTL escorts. He was shouted out and was packed off to the Naval Academy as the IJN top brass were obsessed with the "Great Decisive Battle" and therefore believed the war would be short. After Leyte he was recalled to duty and told he would be given full priority to implement his plan.
Apparently his response was unprintable.
It should be noted that the Japanese Commercial Shipping before 1941 was the third largest in the world, only the UK and USA had larger merchant fleets. An even bigger merchant navy for Japan was likely not in the interest of japan at the time, given its industrial capabilites and modernization of its society.
It could however have produced more merchant shipping, but for what purpose? There simply was no demand from a domestic market for oversea goods at the time and the interests oif the military were in continental Asia at the time.
I read something on another thread, I think it's buried somewhere in The Whale has Wings TL that before the War the IJN's leading ASW expert presented a plan for a convoy system and for a cheap escort ship that could be turned out in large numbers, rather like the RN's OTL escorts. He was shouted out and was packed off to the Naval Academy as the IJN top brass were obsessed with the "Great Decisive Battle" and therefore believed the war would be short. After Leyte he was recalled to duty and told he would be given full priority to implement his plan.
Apparently his response was unprintable.
Certainly the IJN had the experience of conducting ASW during the Med in WW 1 and immediately prior to WW II conducted a free play ASW exercise. The IJN submarine fleet decimated their merchant shipping predicting what the USN would do in later years.
They did a trial interwar. They found subs able to do what the U.S. did. They then ignored it, because it was contrary to the Mahanian doctrine....La Rouge Beret said:
Haven't read that, but I believe it. Was that Chihaya? He had a really low opionion of IJN ASW (with reasonThe Oncoming Storm said:I read something on another thread, I think it's buried somewhere in The Whale has Wings TL that before the War the IJN's leading ASW expert presented a plan for a convoy system and for a cheap escort ship that could be turned out in large numbers, rather like the RN's OTL escorts. He was shouted out and was packed off to the Naval Academy as the IJN top brass were obsessed with the "Great Decisive Battle" and therefore believed the war would be short. After Leyte he was recalled to duty and told he would be given full priority to implement his plan.
Apparently his response was unprintable.
), calling it "shiftless".Correct. Japanese ASW was pretty awful, despite how it looks, sinking 42 boats in the war. Contrast the Allied effort against Germany...Nassirisimo said:
What Japan didn't have was a system to control shipping. Never mind convoys, which were a late innovation. Never mind a dedicated ASW command. What Japan had was IJA & IJN requisitioning of shipping with no co-ordination, & the needs of industry & domestic consumption being made up out of the third (or so) that was left. Japan started the war without enough tonnage to meet domestic needs....
What's surprising, really, is it took so long for the Sub Force to crash Japan's economy.
IMO, make the marus much bigger and make them much faster. Bigger to absorb hits and carry armament, faster to better prevent submarines from successfully intercepting them in the first place.
Say Shinano had been completed as a tanker instead of an aircraft carrier. Let's say 75,000 tons displacement loaded, lets say 35,000 tons of which is ship and 40,000 tons of oil. Yamato Class burned maybe about 65 tons /hr running at 25kt. It's roughly 3,200nm between Java and Japan. 3,200nm at 25kt = 128 hours. 128 hours *65 tons = 8,300 tons of oil. Double that burn for the return trip, so 16,600 tons burned. 40,000 tons minus 16,600 = 23,400 tons delivered. At 25kt, there is no need for this ship to convoy (subs can't catch her, even running flat out on the surface), so Shinano alone should be able deliver 46,000 tons of oil per month to Japan.
This is a really good idea. Except, in merchants, bigger doesn't necessarily mean better able to absorb torpedo hits... Faster also requires more power, & Japan has limits on her ability to produce powerful engines. Faster also burns more oil, which is already in critically low supply...Glenn239 said:
This looks good on its face, but driving a ship that size at 25kt burns so much more fuel than a typical large tanker, like the converted whale factories, I'm not sure it makes sense. She doesn't have to make 25kt to be effectively immune from interception, either. That said, 25kt indicated, after allowing for zigzag, doesn't mean 25kt rate of advance...Glenn239 said:
IDK if it's a bad idea, tho.
What if Japan had anticipated the outbreak of WW2 in Europe? Let us imagine that there was some effective policy making body planning the Japanese economy (there wasn't one but perhaps the Cabinet Planning Board came closest). Let us assume that they had made a plan to be launched on the decision being made that war was imminent. That decision is made on 24th August 1939.
The plan would involve Japan hiring as much neutral shipping as was available by paying significantly above the going rate. Thus Japanese officials approach shipping agents in Norway, Denmark and Greece on 24th August and hire as many ships as they can. I realise that they have little money but they can be creative in offering deals to be paid off over the next year. By 3rd September, the price of shipping is rising rapidly but by then the ships are heading for the Pacific.
The ships are used almost exclusively for shipping within the Empire and between Japan and China. On April 9th 1940, Japanese sailors board the Scandinavian ships to ensure that they do not defect.
Meanwhile, other Japanese officers have approached German officials and pointed out the advantages of ordering German ships to sail to Japanese ports before a possible outbreak of war between German and Britain. Later the same approach with Italian ships will reap a further harvest.
The plan would involve Japan hiring as much neutral shipping as was available by paying significantly above the going rate. Thus Japanese officials approach shipping agents in Norway, Denmark and Greece on 24th August and hire as many ships as they can. I realise that they have little money but they can be creative in offering deals to be paid off over the next year. By 3rd September, the price of shipping is rising rapidly but by then the ships are heading for the Pacific.
The ships are used almost exclusively for shipping within the Empire and between Japan and China. On April 9th 1940, Japanese sailors board the Scandinavian ships to ensure that they do not defect.
Meanwhile, other Japanese officers have approached German officials and pointed out the advantages of ordering German ships to sail to Japanese ports before a possible outbreak of war between German and Britain. Later the same approach with Italian ships will reap a further harvest.
Norway had the second largest merchant fleet after the UK. (Or are you counting that in 1941 as being part of the British fleet?) The US one was (from recollection) not second or even third but fifth or sixth. Of course they had the ability to expand it rapidly.
And still the figures show that Japan had a fleet only 1/3rd of the size it needed to support it's import requirements.
Norway had been occupied by late 1941, so her Merchant Fleet and that of other occupied states, like the Netherlands could be included in that of the UK, as these were in service for the Allied (at that time just the UK adn USSR) side. The USA was already boosting its building capacity in shipbuilding, also for the "Allied" cause, even when itself still neutral. US Shipping was booming already, although not yet as radical as in later war years.
Japan needed shipping for her war effort, which you might indicate to. That I agree on. Japan in peacetime however was not so much depending on this merchant shipping, as the country was bascially still underdevelopped and the population lacked the means to consume goods, both imported ones and those manufactured domestically. The whole merhant fleet was however semi military in nature, as the IJN confiscated the whole Merchant navy for warservice before the war, ending the Japanese merhcant navy as such officially. From that time on, the Japanese Merchant ships were officialy to be seen as ships of the Japanese Navy and Army, dispite being crewed by civillian personel. Before the war, the Japanese Merchant Fleet mainly imported strategic goods and resources intended for the millitary users.