How realistically small could the Eastern Bloc have been during the Cold War? I believe at several opportunities, Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia could have been reached first by the Allies based on change of strategy during WWII. Is it possible to have Bulgaria and Romania outside of the Eastern Bloc as well? Maybe having Turkey join the allies and using it is a jumping point into the Eastern Balkans? The Soviet Union wasn't invaded because of some unforseen problem in the Balkans or Hitler dying, but decides to make an independent war effort once progress begins to be made by the Allies? Then the allies decide to reach Bulgaria before the Soviets take Romania?
How small can the eastern bloc be?
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Solomaxwell6
Banned
How are you defining "Eastern bloc"? Just the Warsaw Pact? Albania and Yugoslavia included, as well? The former was aligned with the USSR, but didn't have nearly as much political connections as the Warsaw Pact. The latter was independent.
Assuming you're just not including Yugoslavia, it'd be easy enough to have Albania fall under the Yugoslavian aegis.
Assuming you're just not including Yugoslavia, it'd be easy enough to have Albania fall under the Yugoslavian aegis.
Solomaxwell6
Banned
Depends on where you want to put your POD. Hell, if you go early enough, you could do away with Communism altogether.
More likely chances are:
- Turkey joins the allies (for some reason), thus providing them with a better springboard into the Balkans. This could turn Bulgaria, Romania and Yugoslavia (I doubt the latter would work, with Tito in there) to the democratic side of the Iron Curtain.
- Russia fares worse in the fight against Germany, but Germany can't still win (probably Stalingrad and Leningrad last more, and it takes more time for Russia to gather a powerful army for the attack on Kursk). This helps the allies to reach Berlin before the Red Army does, thus putting all of Germany in the western side.
- Instead of going for the "broad approach" strategy, the Allies go straight for Paris and then Berlin.
- Market Garden is successful.
- Operation Alaric (the German invasion of Italy) isn't successful as the Italian Army firmly opposes their attack. This helps as the allies won't have to go through so much land (perhaps they won't have to destroy Monte Cassino).
- Turkey joins the allies (for some reason), thus providing them with a better springboard into the Balkans. This could turn Bulgaria, Romania and Yugoslavia (I doubt the latter would work, with Tito in there) to the democratic side of the Iron Curtain.
- Russia fares worse in the fight against Germany, but Germany can't still win (probably Stalingrad and Leningrad last more, and it takes more time for Russia to gather a powerful army for the attack on Kursk). This helps the allies to reach Berlin before the Red Army does, thus putting all of Germany in the western side.
- Instead of going for the "broad approach" strategy, the Allies go straight for Paris and then Berlin.
- Market Garden is successful.
- Operation Alaric (the German invasion of Italy) isn't successful as the Italian Army firmly opposes their attack. This helps as the allies won't have to go through so much land (perhaps they won't have to destroy Monte Cassino).
Solomaxwell6
Banned
How about more successful Polish rebellion against the Nazis, regaining key cities? If the Poles can be seen as ultimately freeing themselves, rather than just having the Soviets occupy them, the Soviets wouldn't be able to set up the Lublin Committee, or it at least wouldn't have the same power as OTL. The government-in-exile manages to restore itself to power, and all is well in the Republic of Poland.
At the end of the war, Nazi leaders see the writing on the wall, intentionally shift all but token resistance east to attempt to block off Soviet advancement, while allowing the western allies to easily move in. IIRC, this happened historically to some extent, but if we have enough effort being made, we might see all of German west of Oder-Niesse unified and aligned with the west.
At the end of the war, Nazi leaders see the writing on the wall, intentionally shift all but token resistance east to attempt to block off Soviet advancement, while allowing the western allies to easily move in. IIRC, this happened historically to some extent, but if we have enough effort being made, we might see all of German west of Oder-Niesse unified and aligned with the west.
CanadianGoose
Banned
ASB.
Realistically, size of ComBloc hangs on Japanese question. IOTL ComBloc (excluding Yugoslavia and probably Bulgaria) was kind of blood money paid to Stalin for 2 purposes: get him to supply enough soldiers to fight Nazi and (later) Japan. As soon as those two aims are achieved by some alternate mean, nobody is going to grant Stalin any territory outside of Red Army's immediate control. So, if Japan somehow stays out of WWII and USA aren't scared shitless of idea of invasion to Japan proper, lend-lease could be scaled down to non-existance sometimes between Kursk and Bagration, leaving Red Army somewhat less mobile and with smaller resources. That could delay them enough for Valkyrie gang to do their assassination and would give Allies enough leeway to bargain with Stalin (that would depend on how successful Bagration would be).
Solomaxwell6
Banned
Absolutely not true, given that no specific POD or even time limit for a POD is given. You could throw in tons and tons of things that will lead to Germany unable to support as many troops on Poland. There were hundreds of thousands of Polish underground troops. Things like increased co-operation, more preparations before the war, fewer German occupation forces (for whatever reason), means that it's definitely possible with the right POD.
MacCaulay
Banned
They had the POPE. The Poles didn't need cooperation, preparations or fewer Germans in their country...they just needed Pope John Paul II to put down his gun and start praying. Then Catholic God would smite the Nazis!
Solomaxwell6
Banned
Not sure if you're mocking me in particular or not. If you are, unless someone shows me evidence to the contrary (ie, not just saying "ASB" and then not giving any reasons why) I firmly believe it's possible. I'm not saying Poles throw off occupation completely independently. I'm not even saying they need to control their whole country.
The Warsaw Uprising was stalemated for a while, and had almost no outside support, just a few airdrops. Throw in real support, and we could see the Polish Home Army take control of the city, instead of the Soviet Union. The Lvov Uprising did succeed, but the leaders of the Home Army there were tricked into visiting Soviet commanders (at the time, they still thoughts of the Russians as their friends) and got captured. Make them a bit more wary, and that's not going to happen. This makes it much more difficult for the Soviet Union to set up its puppet government, especially if other uprisings succeed. Krakow, perhaps, had potential (IIRC there were uprisings there, but I have no information and can't find anything on wiki).
MacCaulay
Banned
Naw, I wasn't mocking you. I was just making a joke!
I didn't think there were airdrops into the Warsaw Uprising. After all, it was some Jewish folks who weren't backed by the Home Army. I guess I don't see where the airdrops come in. Since the Poles wouldn't have had any...and the Americans and British probably didn't know it happened until afterwards...
Solomaxwell6
Banned
Naw, I wasn't mocking you. I was just making a joke!
I didn't think there were airdrops into the Warsaw Uprising. After all, it was some Jewish folks who weren't backed by the Home Army. I guess I don't see where the airdrops come in. Since the Poles wouldn't have had any...and the Americans and British probably didn't know it happened until afterwards...
No no no. The Warsaw Uprising was done by the Home Army. It was part of their Operation Tempest (or was that the name of the Nazi counter-attack in Poland?), which was basically along the lines of "Liberate Central Poland to provide support for the advancing Soviet army." They actually did a pretty decent job in some places, but were ultimately put back down by the Germans. There were some air drops, just not that many. I remember reading a quote by a South African pilot who was dropping supplies, how he could see Warsaw 100 km away because the whole city was on fire.