How Silent Fall the Cherry Blossoms

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Geon

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U.S. and Patriot Act (U.S. part I)

This will be the start of my last section on the post war world. As I said a few times earlier, anyone wishing to write sections on other parts of the world based on my TL is welcome to do so, just check with me first.

Geon
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AMERICA:
The United States:
Postwar 1945-1952:
Throughout the United States people celebrated the official end of World War II on June 12, 1945. After four long years of war the people of the U.S. now looked forward to peace. But the U.S. had paid a hard price for that peace. Along with the deaths of 750,680 military personnel the U.S. also had lost a total of 2,823 civilians as a result of the Biological and Chemical attacks by the Axis nations. Although by comparison the U.S. had suffered less in civilian casualties then any of the other major Allied powers the deaths of over two thousand civilians combined with the knowledge that America had been so woefully unprepared for the war when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor left a major mark on future American policy and policy makers. One simple two word phrase echoed over and over again in the American psyche over the next several decades – Never again!

The U.S. would never again allow itself to be caught unprepared. The myth that the U.S. could safely shield itself between two oceans was now and forever buried. Especially with the advent of atomic weapons and intercontinental bombers not to mention the theoretical possibility of intercontinental missiles it was now clear that any sort of complacency on America’s part might well be fatal. As a result of this thinking the U.S. domestic and international policies would take a decidedly militaristic shift in the next few decades.

In order to maintain a strong armed forces capable of dealing with any external threat the Truman Administration passed the GI Education Act in November, 1945 as an effort to entice many servicemen planning to leave when their terms were up to reenlist. The Act offered to pay for a college education for the departing soldiers in return for their reenlistment at the end of their time in college for 6 more years. The Act also offered the same deal to civilians who could not afford a college education. The GI Education Act ensured that the U.S. peace time army would still be a substantial one.

In addition the National Highway Act was passed in January 1946. The purpose was to improve the quality of the national highway system throughout the country with the unstated but clear ulterior motive of ensuring that it would be easier to rush troops and emergency personnel anywhere in the country and ensure safe evacuations in the event of an emergency. By 1960 the nation would be linked by a system of interstate superhighways stretching from coast to coast.

After the war the Office of Civilian Defense evolved into the National Civil Defense Agency (NCDA). The NCDA would authorize crisis teams to be set up in each major city and to drill and prepare with local police and fire departments as well as the National Guard in order to be ready for any type of disaster be it natural or man made. The NCDA also mandated that all public buildings over a given size must have emergency shelters stocked with food, water, and emergency medical supplies and that those supplies must be rotated regularly.

The specter of how vulnerable the U.S. was came into focus again barely a year after the war ended. In May, 1946 the FBI announced it had discovered a “phoenix cell” about to become active in the U.S. The cell had been formed by German expatriates whom had managed to sneak their political leanings past the immigration authorities. One of the expatriates was an SS officer who, as part of the Phoenix Project, had been ordered to infiltrate the U.S. and restart the German Bund, this time under the guise of an organization for German expatriate citizens, in actuality it would form around carefully selected former Nazi officials. The cell was uncovered by an undercover FBI investigation. The identity of the men who helped to reveal the cell has never been revealed by the FBI and the information on their identity was sealed and has not yet been released.

Reaction to the attempt to create a “phoenix cell” coming as it did during the Phoenix War in the occupied German territories, caused the Truman administration to consider drastic measures. On July 8, 1946 President Truman signed the Patriot Act. The Act declared that any and all political organizations shown to have affiliations with either former or present enemies of the United States shall be disbanded and declared illegal. The Act allowed for a 30 year prison sentence for anyone found being guilty of violating it with no parole possible for the first 15 years of that sentence. Naturally many felt this Act was unconstitutional and subverted the basic freedoms of assembly and free speech. However in a decision by the Supreme Court in 1949 (a 6-3 decision) the Act was upheld as the Court ruled that “free speech and free assembly are rights clearly guaranteed in the Constitution however political affiliations with parties hostile to the nation are not so guaranteed.”

The Patriot Act would make it illegal to be a Nazi in the United States. The members of the Phoenix cell were imprisoned and later deported back to Germany. Later attempts to start an American Nazi party in 1952 by Americans sympathetic to the Nazi cause were ended at the first meeting when FBI undercover officers informed local officials of the meeting. Those involved were all convicted and would all serve the full 30 year sentence.
 
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Geon

Donor
Chaplin and Hippies

Wait! So Chaplin&co, and all the others falsely accused during the McCarthy hearings, and all of the Hippie crowd and youth movement leaders are going to prison for 30 years!? WHAT! :mad:

Chaplin saw the writing on the wall before the Patriot Act was passed in this TL. He learned enough about Stalinist Communism and decided he didn't want any part of it. He still has left leaning politics but is not affiliated with a party that could get him arrested. And in any case his actions during the LA outbreak will help ensure he stays out of prison.

As for the Hippie crowd, I was going to get to that. As long as they are not openly affiliated with the communist party there is no problem. And what makes you think there will be hippies? Remember there is no Vietnam War, and the civil rights movement starts much earlier and will be further along by the late 60's hence some of the reasons for the Hippie/Youth Movement are no longer there. Also consider an attitude in the U.S. after World War II more akin to a combination of Cold War paranoia and the prevailing attitudes for greater security following 9/11. The U.S. cultural scene is going to be much different in the 60's then it was in OTL.
 
Geon, your supposition that a USA which suffered substantive attacks on its homeland in WW2 would become more militarist and security conscious makes good sense. Your highway bill is basically what happened OTL anyway, and your modified GI bill is realistic.

I do have some questions about the expansive "Patriot Act". I completely agree that the discovery of a US Phoenix cell and other Nazi sympathizers during the "Phoenix War" could lead to extreme measures targeting any domestic group perceived to be supportive of Nazism or even German aspirations in general. I can also see these passing Supreme Court muster in the immediate postwar years. Offical tolerance for otherwise unconstitutional anti-German acts would also be common. Anti-German prejudice would equal or exceed that which occurred in WW1. More "liberty cabbage" anyone?

On the other hand, the "vulnerability" the US had in your TL's WW2 was only against normal military attacks, not cells of local traitors. Also, in the overall TL you present, I get the impression that communism is less of a threat to US interests than OTL - in part because the USSR remains a bit more of a partner with respect to Germany and the communist revolutions in Asia are far less sucessful.

For this reason, I doubt that the "Patriot Act" would evolve into a general attack on civil liberties, ensnaring and imprisonng anyone who was ever a member of the CPUSA, for example. I think it would be targeted on Nazis, apologists for German nationalism, and well-meaning civil libertarians who support the rights of these people.
 

Geon

Donor
Geon, your supposition that a USA which suffered substantive attacks on its homeland in WW2 would become more militarist and security conscious makes good sense. Your highway bill is basically what happened OTL anyway, and your modified GI bill is realistic.

I do have some questions about the expansive "Patriot Act". I completely agree that the discovery of a US Phoenix cell and other Nazi sympathizers during the "Phoenix War" could lead to extreme measures targeting any domestic group perceived to be supportive of Nazism or even German aspirations in general. I can also see these passing Supreme Court muster in the immediate postwar years. Offical tolerance for otherwise unconstitutional anti-German acts would also be common. Anti-German prejudice would equal or exceed that which occurred in WW1. More "liberty cabbage" anyone?

On the other hand, the "vulnerability" the US had in your TL's WW2 was only against normal military attacks, not cells of local traitors. Also, in the overall TL you present, I get the impression that communism is less of a threat to US interests than OTL - in part because the USSR remains a bit more of a partner with respect to Germany and the communist revolutions in Asia are far less sucessful.

For this reason, I doubt that the "Patriot Act" would evolve into a general attack on civil liberties, ensnaring and imprisonng anyone who was ever a member of the CPUSA, for example. I think it would be targeted on Nazis, apologists for German nationalism, and well-meaning civil libertarians who support the rights of these people.

Okay everyone! I hear you:)! You'll note the references to the communist party are removed. However some of the info I gave in my reply to Durabys above stands.

Geon
 
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Question about the casualties for the US.

In OTL the US suffered about 405k -420k military deaths and about 670k casualties (i.e. wounded). ITTL the US did NOT fight Iwo Jima (6,821 dead), Okinawa (12,520 dead), or various battles in the Philippines (1,500+ dead); in total about 20k less dead.

OTL, The Battle of the Bulge cost the US about 89.5k troops and the D-Day landings cost about 75k in dead.

So here you have the US in the course of a few months taking about 350k more deaths than OTL which is literally twice as many deaths as OTL D-Day and TBotB combined. Just for fun, that's 18x as many casualties as Okinawa and Iwo Jima combined. All this with a Germany that still faced terrible logistics, negligible amounts of fuel, and 2 months to prepare a defense in a European winter against an enemy with total air superiority? I'm having a hard time seeing that here, even with chemical warfare involved.
 
Question about the casualties for the US.

In OTL the US suffered about 405k -420k military deaths and about 670k casualties (i.e. wounded). ITTL the US did NOT fight Iwo Jima (6,821 dead), Okinawa (12,520 dead), or various battles in the Philippines (1,500+ dead); in total about 20k less dead.

OTL, The Battle of the Bulge cost the US about 89.5k troops and the D-Day landings cost about 75k in dead.

So here you have the US in the course of a few months taking about 350k more deaths than OTL which is literally twice as many deaths as OTL D-Day and TBotB combined. Just for fun, that's 18x as many casualties as Okinawa and Iwo Jima combined. All this with a Germany that still faced terrible logistics, negligible amounts of fuel, and 2 months to prepare a defense in a European winter against an enemy with total air superiority? I'm having a hard time seeing that here, even with chemical warfare involved.

The number Geon give are right, Tabun and Sarin were first Nerve Gas and Used By the German in huge quantity (the SS had 50000 Metric TONS of Tabun)
and it a Nerve gas that work over skin contact in minuscule dose deathly.

next to that the Allies invade a Third Reich that NOT official surrender, do lack of official willing to do so
and the minion had last order fight the oppressor with "Phönix Zellen" and "Wehrwolfen gruppen"
what let to the Phoenix war

and Please read the previous chapter of this TL, before criticize something...
 
The number Geon give are right, Tabun and Sarin were first Nerve Gas and Used By the German in huge quantity (the SS had 50000 Metric TONS of Tabun)
and it a Nerve gas that work over skin contact in minuscule dose deathly.

next to that the Allies invade a Third Reich that NOT official surrender, do lack of official willing to do so
and the minion had last order fight the oppressor with "Phönix Zellen" and "Wehrwolfen gruppen"
what let to the Phoenix war

and Please read the previous chapter of this TL, before criticize something...
Not trying to be disrespectful, I apologize if I came across that way. I simply am having some difficulty seeing the number of dead so high in light of casualty figures in comparison to OTL battles. The initial gas attacks would certainly cause a high number of casualties, but previous chapters also mentioned that the Allies sent protective gear out to their troops (a la when Antwerp was attacked).

Certainly you must understand my hesitance accepting so many dead coming from such a short period in light of the situation. Those figures are more similar to projections for Operation Downfall in OTL. However, the situation with Germany is different as not all the soldiers were diehard zealots like the SS, had no air power, lived in tank terrain, and only had a few months to prepare in the winter months. I have been to southern and western Germany, it is perfect tank country, not like you would see in Kyushu. And although there may not have been any high ranking officials to surrender, competent generals like Rommel were honorable (and smart) enough to know when to throw in the towel. Keep in mind, even OTL Hitler wanted his armies to make Stalingrad-esque stand but those orders were not always followed. Model for instance dissolved his army instead of surrendering, thereby fulfilling his promise to not surrender while also not seeing his entire army slaughtered.

Again, there is no disrespect here, this is a great TL but I'm going to voice my opinion when I find something to be questionable. I simply find the number of dead to be far in excess of what Germany was realistically capable of doing considering the circumstances ITTL and using OTL as a base for how the Germans would react.
 
I think Cubefreak is raising a reasonable question. I too have been a fan of this TL but part of counterfactual history is debating the internal logic of the alternative scenario.
 
I think Cubefreak is raising a reasonable question. I too have been a fan of this TL but part of counterfactual history is debating the internal logic of the alternative scenario.

I agree. The same line of logic could be applied to the Scandinavian countries' behavior in the post-war world and the amount of German nationalism coming out of annexed territories.

ITTL total American casualties in Europe would probably be higher by maybe 5,000~, taking into account a more ferocious Wacht am Rhein w/ chem weapons and Phoenix cell attacks after major combat operations ended (sorry Dubya :p).

Marc A
 

Geon

Donor
Realistic Casualty Figures

Having listened to some of you discuss casualty figures I would like to ask what you think would be a reasonable increase of the U.S. military casualty figures given the following.

  1. No battles for Iwo Jima and Okinawa and fewer kamikaze attacks owing to Japan leaving the war earlier.
  2. Indiscriminate use by the Nazis of Tabun and Sarin nerve agents in the Battle of Belgium.
  3. Near fanatical resistance which substantially slowed the U.S. in several German cities.
Given these factors what would you say then is a reasonable casualty increase?

Geon
 
<snip>

Reaction to the attempt to create a “phoenix cell” coming as it did during the Phoenix War in the occupied German territories, caused the Truman administration to consider drastic measures. On July 8, 1946 President Truman signed the Patriot Act. The Act declared that any and all political organizations shown to have affiliations with either former or present enemies of the United States shall be disbanded and declared illegal. The Act allowed for a 30 year prison sentence for anyone found being guilty of violating it with no parole possible for the first 15 years of that sentence. Naturally many felt this Act was unconstitutional and subverted the basic freedoms of assembly and free speech. However in a decision by the Supreme Court in 1949 (a 6-3 decision) the Act was upheld as the Court ruled that “free speech and free assembly are rights clearly guaranteed in the Constitution however political affiliations with parties hostile to the nation are not so guaranteed.”
(emphasis mine)

Would this apply to flying confederate flags, membership in things liek Daughters of the Confederacy, and the like? The "Stars and Bars" is, after all, a symbol of open rebellion against the duly elected government. by the Letter of the law, it seems to apply. And if so, it will DRASTICALLY change the resistance to the accelerated Civil Rights Movement
 

Geon

Donor
(emphasis mine)

Would this apply to flying confederate flags, membership in things liek Daughters of the Confederacy, and the like? The "Stars and Bars" is, after all, a symbol of open rebellion against the duly elected government. by the Letter of the law, it seems to apply. And if so, it will DRASTICALLY change the resistance to the accelerated Civil Rights Movement

I don't know ScrewySqrl. That is the most honest answer I can give. I will say I could see your example coming up in a very contentious Supreme Court case. I would have to say that given that the civil war occurred before the law was passed it's likely the court would rule that the law could not be used retroactively. What do the rest of you think?

Geon
 
I don't know ScrewySqrl. That is the most honest answer I can give. I will say I could see your example coming up in a very contentious Supreme Court case. I would have to say that given that the civil war occurred before the law was passed it's likely the court would rule that the law could not be used retroactively. What do the rest of you think?

Geon

Well then how could they use that against Nazi's? That war ALSO happened before the law was passed. :p
 
Well then how could they use that against Nazi's? That war ALSO happened before the law was passed. :p


the thought that occurs to me: its passed legislatively and got Supreme Court acceptance while thinking primaily of the Nazi party. This would be an 'unintended consequence'

However, as the civil rights movement moves ahead 15 or so years ahead of OTL, a 1948 anti-civil-rights rally flying confederate flags is followed up by the FBI with its leaders arrested under this law (under pressure from Truman, perhaps?). It woudl create a huge backlash in the deep south.
 
Having listened to some of you discuss casualty figures I would like to ask what you think would be a reasonable increase of the U.S. military casualty figures given the following.

  1. No battles for Iwo Jima and Okinawa and fewer kamikaze attacks owing to Japan leaving the war earlier.
  2. Indiscriminate use by the Nazis of Tabun and Sarin nerve agents in the Battle of Belgium.
  3. Near fanatical resistance which substantially slowed the U.S. in several German cities.
Given these factors what would you say then is a reasonable casualty increase?

Geon
I wouldn't argue against 525k dead honestly. I may have my doubts but understand where you are coming from.

As for the Confederate thing, according to the law's writing you can say that putting British things up is against the law since we fought against them twice in the past.
 

Geon

Donor
The Civil Rights Movement

On the subject of the civil rights movement here is an update on that very subject. This covers the movement from 1945 to 1952. Note that I am aiming for a "kinder, gentler" movement. One that while it still had violence and casualties was not on the level of what was experienced later.

Geon
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Birth of the Civil Rights Movement:
When Daryl Augustus Cleaver confronted policemen in front of a St. Louis hospital that night on November 17, 1944 his one and only motivation was to get help for the sick people that had been brought there by the “mercy train.” At no time did Daryl have any thought of starting any sort of social revolution. But his simple actions that night did just that.
By the end of the year the state of Missouri had passed laws forbidding any hospital from turning away patients on the basis of their race. This law was a landmark for its time. The law would become known-over the objections of the man it was named for-as Cleaver’s Law.

Like a pebble dropped into a still pond ripple effects of Daryl’s actions began to spread elsewhere. By 1952 18 states, five of them in the South had passed their own versions of Cleaver’s Law.
The passing of Cleaver’s Law also had the effect of starting several “grass roots” movements in the South and elsewhere in the country. Ordinary people started to meet to discuss and work out means to end segregation starting on a local level and then working up to the state and national level.

Things started simply enough in small towns and cities. A group would get together and note where a restaurant or hotel or similar public place had restrictive rules regarding who could and couldn’t be admitted. They would then seek to get together with others of like mind on the other side of the color barrier. They would then sit down with the owners of said establishments and request these policies be changed. Many of the establishments’ owners complied, some did not. Those that did not found themselves boycotted by all those concerned until they changed their ways. There were no attempts to enter establishments that refused to serve certain people. But those establishments would be boycotted by many regular white customers who also came to believe the time had come for change.
One Baptist pastor characterized the civil rights movement as it began by quoting the scripture which says, “Do not be overcome by evil but overcome evil with good.; in some cases doing so involved great risks but sometime those risks brought great rewards.

A notable and well known example occurred in 1951 in Georgia. Near Athens a KKK rally had started and was in full swing leading up to the burning of the cross when a caravan of cars approached. The members of the group prepared for possible trouble only to be “shocked out of their socks,” as one member would say later to discover the cars were full of people from both sides of the color barrier from nearby churches. Among the people there were several GI’s just returned from the war wearing their uniforms. One of the pastors, an elderly gentleman spoke up and said, “Please don’t be alarmed, we’re not here to cause any trouble. But we just want you to look at some of these men with us. Some of them served with some of you during the war. Maybe your paths never crossed but you are both Americans. We simply want you to know that we are not your enemy. That’s all we have to say. If you want us to stay, we’ll stay, if you want us to go, just say the word.” For several minutes nobody spoke on either side. The ball was in the court of the KKK. Then something incredible happened, one of the members of that organization removed his hood and walked forward. He stopped in front of one of the men the pastor had pointed to and asked him where he had served. The two started talking. Others began to follow the man’s example. Within a matter of minutes people were talking in small groups. The discussions lasted long into the night. It was the beginning of the transformation of this particular group of the KKK.

Not all confrontations of this nature went well. A small group of pastors and veterans that attempted a similar meeting in Louisiana found themselves set upon by the group they tried to speak with. Several of those among the pastors and veterans were beaten and 3 eventually died from their wounds. It is significant however that as a result of this incident, two men from that particular group of KKK would eventually be arrested, tried and would serve very long prison sentences. It was even more significant that the arresting officer was the sheriff of a nearby town who had been at the meeting that night.

Slowly but surely in small towns and cities in the South and elsewhere meetings like this began to change things.

Sadly, the man who started all of this would not live to see more then the beginning of the incredible social change he had so inadvertently begun. Daryl Augustus Cleaver would pass away quietly in his sleep on February 2, 1950. He was 81 years old. His funeral would be attended by civil and religious leaders not only from St. Louis but throughout the nation. President Truman would send a representative as well. Daryl was buried with a simple headstone noting only his name, date of birth, and death in a local cemetery which because of his simple actions six years before on the hospital steps was now open to use by people of all racial backgrounds.
 
Having listened to some of you discuss casualty figures I would like to ask what you think would be a reasonable increase of the U.S. military casualty figures given the following.

  1. No battles for Iwo Jima and Okinawa and fewer kamikaze attacks owing to Japan leaving the war earlier.
  2. Indiscriminate use by the Nazis of Tabun and Sarin nerve agents in the Battle of Belgium.
  3. Near fanatical resistance which substantially slowed the U.S. in several German cities.
Given these factors what would you say then is a reasonable casualty increase?

Geon

I'll take a general stab at this and say (re-reading the pertinent sections of this TL) that U.S. casualties would be OTL plus about 10%. This is taking in consideration that the casualties saved by butterflying the endgame of the Pacific War will happen in Europe instead primarily because of the use of Taubin and Sarin, the larger "Battle of Belgium", German units who choose to fight to the death and to a lesser extent, the Phoenix Cells.

I think I'm wanking the CW casualties a bit to give an extra 10% but it is hard to exactly know how effective the Allied protective measures would be in that time and place. Re. fanatical resistance (which realistically would be a course of action by a minority of German units in the West): the allies would simply subject holdout areas to a more thorough and prolonged bombardment with impunity---they have time on their side, after all. Pockets can be bypassed for later disposal.

I see the attrition exacted by Phoenix cell activity to have more nuisance than effective value and in its most vigorous years might have exacted a few thousand casualties a year spread out amongst the Allied powers. It is the civilian casualties that are going to be far higher than OTL due to no protection against CW agents and being the victims of blowback from Phoenix Cell activity or by being used as human shields by fanatical units. Horrifically so.

Even this reduced U.S. casualty figure (including an extra 40K KIA and over 60K wounded over OTL) would be horrific and the social effects stemming from this would really be no less than what you have already expressed.
 
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