How Plausible is the rise of Socialism/Marxism/Communism in the CSA?

[GameBawesome]

This idea seems like a neat idea, that came from the Alternate History Writer, Harry Turtledove: The rise of Communism in the CSA, where in Southern Victory, black communists rosed against the Confederates during the Great War.

So, this got me thinking, how plausible for Socialism/Marxism/Communism to rise in the CSA, whether that be from the White working class, the Blacks Slaves, or (depending on if the CSA ever abolished slavery) the Black working class?

With a POD I've been using for most of my CSA Victory asks: In a POD where the Confederate States of America won independence around 1862, with international recognition from Britain and France, and war-wariness from Copperheads and Civilians of the North. In the post war borders, the CSA gains its seceded territories, and Confederate Arizona, and the Indian Territory gains independence, as both sides wasn't willing to give it up in the peace treaty, so they pulled a Uruguay. However, the CSA does not get any of the border-states, including Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, West Virginia (Who gets more territory to protect DC)

So, with that POD out of the way, with the CSA moving into the next few decades, possibly surviving to the beginning of the 20th Century, could there be potential rise of Socialism/Marxism/Communism in the CSA?

Disclaimer: Be respectful to each other and don't get too political, and I will not tolerate any racism in this thread. Anyone that breaks this rule, I will contact one of the Moderators.

 

[galanx]

Two options-
1) Among blacks, but would result in even more terrorising from whites.
2)The poorer class of whites democratically overcoming the planter class, with an even stronger form of herrenvolk socialism. Say, a Huey Long type figure with CSA-wide appeal.

 

[Sarthak]

It is possible that leftism becomes popular among the industrial belt of Virginia, tennessee and northern North Carolina which were the more industrialised places in the CSA.

 

[Daztur]

Sure why not, a relatively early POD allows for a wide range of possibilities.

 

[CastIron]

So, with that POD out of the way, with the CSA moving into the next few decades, possibly surviving to the beginning of the 20th Century, could there be potential rise of Socialism/Marxism/Communism in the CSA?

Among the slaves, most definitely. I don't buy the common assumption that the CSA would give up slavery, the core of it's identity, because their European benefactors/customers would give them the side eye when buying cotton, so I take the continuation of slavery indefinitely as given, and what class of people would have more conciousness than literal Chattel slaves. Escaped slave preachers and their congregations were active during even the harshest periods of slavery, and while Marxism is atheistic, a version of Christian Socialism could easily arise when left-wing ideas are imported into the South.
When the boll weevil migrates up from Mexico and starts literally eating the profits of the planters, the socialist slaves might find an unlikely ally in the poor Whites whose livelihoods were wiped out by the weevil and their chance for a revolution when the killing of King Cotton disrupts the plantation society of the South.

I don't see, however, reform happening over revolution. Southern society of the time was based on everyone not a slave being dependent on the rich planter class in some way, and I doubt they'd willingly cede any ground to an ideology that wishes for the abolition of their entire way of life.

 

[Viking25]

tennessee

I have heard of how industrialised the other two were but Tennessee? Wasn't the Place mostly agrarian except for Chattanooga which happened after the civil war? The majority of the Industrial development seems to have happened before and after WW2 from what I can tell.

 

[Tabs]

I absolutely think it could've. Mostly among slaves and the farmers.

I have heard of how industrialised the other two were but Tennessee? Wasn't the Place mostly agrarian except for Chattanooga which happened after the civil war? The majority of the Industrial development seems to have happened before and after WW2 from what I can tell.

Memphis was also industrialized, and Nashville too I think, but yeah overall we were pretty bad until the TVA. My region only survived due to zinc mining, and everyone except a select few were dirt poor.

 

[ZeroFrame]

I'd say yes but mainly amongst the black population (minus Appalachia which suffered extreme levels of poverty). Marxism and socialism would be very appealing to the slaves due to it calling for the overthrow of the capitalist system which the slaves wouldn't view kindly due to the horrifying oppression by the planter aristocracy. IMO we could see a form of Christian socialism emerge that combined the messages of the Bible that resonated with slaves IOTL and the messages of socialism that would resonate with slaves ITTL.

 

[Deleted member 90949]

It is possible that leftism becomes popular among the industrial belt of Virginia, tennessee and northern North Carolina which were the more industrialised places in the CSA.

The Appalachian mountains could also be a potential area of support.

Say, a Huey Long type figure with CSA-wide appeal.

Every Man a Master

I don't buy the common assumption that the CSA would give up slavery, the core of it's identity

Brazil gave up slavery.

 

[Tabs]

The Appalachian mountains could also be a potential area of support.

As an Appalachian, absolutely. We had so much poverty here IOTL, and it'd be even worse in a CSA victory. This area supported a lot of the labor movements in the early 1900s, such as the major strike in Gastonia in 1929. There'd certainly be a lot of support for leftism and anti-capitalist ideas here. Not to mention, much of Appalachia was anti-secession in the first place. We'd be a problem for the CSA no matter what.

 

[CastIron]

Brazil gave up slavery.

I'd say that's flawed arguement. Brazil didn't become it's own nation because Portugal was free-soil, write into it's constitution that states within in had no right to abolish slavery, or mention in its succession documents the right that it had to enslave people.
Slavery really was the core of Confederate identity, something so core that I'd doubt they'd give it up, even if it meant becoming a pariah state.

 

[Tabs]

Slavery really was the core of Confederate identity, something so core that I'd doubt they'd give it up, even if it meant becoming a pariah state.

Yes, this is key. The CSA revolted due to the issue of slavery, and it was guarenteed as a God-given right in their constitution. While they certainly can give slavery up, it's very unlikely. Comparing it to Brazil simply isn't the same, as they had different systems.

 

[Metempsychosis]

If feudal, heavily agricultural Russia could do it, I don't see why the CSA can't.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Absolutely. There's a huge population of both poor whites, who over time will be increasingly squeezed by the already wealthy landholders and competition with industrialized slavery, and the black slave population. While I don't think pure Marxism per se will catch on, by the turn of the century I could see a form of socialism/Marxism being imported from the US or abroad that begins to catch on with the disenfranchised of the CSA.

By disenfranchised I do mean disenfranchised. There is a strong likelihood that many states will pass laws restricting the right to vote to property owners as had been the case in the Antebellum South. There will be a poor-white underclass whose only saving grace - in their minds - is that they aren't slaves. If a certain form of socialism catches on, then the mudsill theory may break down.

 

[walmart]

It would be limited to the black population. I don’t see poor whites wanting any form of equality with blacks.

 

[CHKeeley]

It would be limited to the black population. I don’t see poor whites wanting any form of equality with blacks.

Honestly I'm not so sure about this. I think in OTL, the triumph of the federal government ironically gave some capacity for the southern aristocracy to keep poor whites rooted to them. They could cultivate the myth of the Lost Cause and deflect any discontent onto the broader American political landscape. "We're poor because the damned Yankees took our property and in Washington they want to keep us down just because we do things our own way here" and so on. In a victory, there is nothing shielding the planter class from discontent. They can't paint themselves as underdogs trying their best in a hostile world or keep leading people on with Confederate nostalgia. I think the glue holding the OTL alliance together is much weaker. Combine that with harsher poverty and depression as well as *lack of land* (remember.. in an independent CSA there is no more lands west to go to unless you emigrate to the USA) and the massive labor struggle that gripped the US in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and I can definitely see it happening in some places. Not everywhere of course, but enough to perhaps be significant.

 

[marktaha]

Novel.The.Shiloh Project by David Poyer set.in 70s (I think) referred to Dixie Socialism under people like McAdoo.

 

[Metempsychosis]

It would be limited to the black population. I don’t see poor whites wanting any form of equality with blacks.

That's the conditioning of the Lost Cause and capitalist-backed white supremacy talking. Poor whites in a victorious South could see far more in common with the blacks than with the planters who would dominate politics in the CSA. It's a possibility, at least.