How many wars would happen in Middle East if Israel never existed

[iori]

between Egypt and Libya, the Libyan intervention in the Chadean civil war, the Sudanese civil war, the Yemeni civil war.

Muslim does not equal Middle-East, the only one of those countries that's considered part of the M-E is Egypt.

 

[NKVD]

You wouldn't have the 1948 War, the Six Day War, and all those other wars who's names I don't remember. And you can probably butterfly away Afghanistan and Iraq. But you'd still probably have quite a bit -- just take a look at this list.

Of course, you'd need such an early POD to, shall we say, wipe Israel off the map, that all or most of those things listed in the article will be butterflied away. Maybe there would be fewer conflicts, maybe there would be more -- but that would be independent of Israel's existence. Rather, just simple butterflies.

 

[Lost the game]

Someone will probably get banned now

No, this is a perfectly legitimate question if framed correctly. Let's say a POD of "Hitler considers German Jews to be Germans, and thus while life is still decidedly unpleasant for the inhabitants of Eastern Europe in particular, and World War II goes essentially as per OTL, there is no Final Solution, and thus the political will to establish Israel that existed IOTL doesn't ITTL."

And for the OP, perhaps Egypt, Syria, and Jordan partition Palestine, leading to a PLO that has both Muslim and Jewish members, much better funded through the fact that the West, (particularly the United States) supports it. Hm... a US-backed PLO with Yasser Arafat at its head and, say, Yitzak Shamir as second-in-command? Perhaps in the place of the 6-Day War, Yom Kippur War, 1st Intifada, and 2nd Intifada, we have several Intifadas instead?

 

[Herzen's love-child]

No, this is a perfectly legitimate question if framed correctly. Let's say a POD of "Hitler considers German Jews to be Germans, and thus while life is still decidedly unpleasant for the inhabitants of Eastern Europe in particular, and World War II goes essentially as per OTL, there is no Final Solution, and thus the political will to establish Israel that existed IOTL doesn't ITTL."

Hitler being Hitler, that would be pretty ASB. Now if you butterflied away WW2, or had a non-Nazi Wilhelmine Germany involved in a WW2, then you'd be talking.

 

[NKVD]

No, this is a perfectly legitimate question if framed correctly. Let's say a POD of "Hitler considers German Jews to be Germans, and thus while life is still decidedly unpleasant for the inhabitants of Eastern Europe in particular, and World War II goes essentially as per OTL, there is no Final Solution, and thus the political will to establish Israel that existed IOTL doesn't ITTL."

And for the OP, perhaps Egypt, Syria, and Jordan partition Palestine, leading to a PLO that has both Muslim and Jewish members, much better funded through the fact that the West, (particularly the United States) supports it. Hm... a US-backed PLO with Yasser Arafat at its head and, say, Yitzak Shamir as second-in-command? Perhaps in the place of the 6-Day War, Yom Kippur War, 1st Intifada, and 2nd Intifada, we have several Intifadas instead?

Hitler being Hitler, that would be pretty ASB. Now if you butterflied away WW2, or had a non-Nazi Wilhelmine Germany involved in a WW2, then you'd be talking.

You sure that no Final Solution/Nazis would lead to no Israel?

I've been researching this for a TL (and also, because of my own interests in the subject). I'm really not sure if the fact that six million more Jews in Europe will simply allow for a more steady trickle of Jewish settlers in Palestine or not.

At the very least, without the Holocaust you'll have less sympathy for Zionism, and thus nothing on the scale of the 1947 partition plan. You could have something the size of the Peel Commission's proposal. I don't know.

 

[ingemann]

You sure that no Final Solution/Nazis would lead to no Israel?

I've been researching this for a TL (and also, because of my own interests in the subject). I'm really not sure if the fact that six million more Jews in Europe will simply allow for a more steady trickle of Jewish settlers in Palestine or not.

At the very least, without the Holocaust you'll have less sympathy for Zionism, and thus nothing on the scale of the 1947 partition plan. You could have something the size of the Peel Commission's proposal. I don't know.

The Jewish migrants in the thirties was mostly refugees from Germany and Austria, if Hitler saw Yiddish speaking Jews as just another German minority, Jews in Palestina area would likely have stayed a relative small minority (20-25%) and the large influx of Jews in the thirties was also the factor which really alienated the local Arabs.

 

[Herzen's love-child]

You sure that no Final Solution/Nazis would lead to no Israel?

I've been researching this for a TL (and also, because of my own interests in the subject). I'm really not sure if the fact that six million more Jews in Europe will simply allow for a more steady trickle of Jewish settlers in Palestine or not.

At the very least, without the Holocaust you'll have less sympathy for Zionism, and thus nothing on the scale of the 1947 partition plan. You could have something the size of the Peel Commission's proposal. I don't know.

I personally think that no Holocaust would have led to a very different Israel. One smaller and possibly taking longer to establish depending on the whims of British mandate policy.

 

[RousseauX]

No, this is a perfectly legitimate question if framed correctly. Let's say a POD of "Hitler considers German Jews to be Germans, and thus while life is still decidedly unpleasant for the inhabitants of Eastern Europe in particular, and World War II goes essentially as per OTL, there is no Final Solution, and thus the political will to establish Israel that existed IOTL doesn't ITTL."

You do realize the vast majority of Jews murdered were Polish/eastern European/Russian Jews right?

 

[Simon]

You mean in addition to the wars that already happened? i.e. - the Iran/Iraq War, the brief conflict between Egypt and Libya, the Libyan intervention in the Chadean civil war, the Sudanese civil war, the Yemeni civil war. The Invasion of Kuwait. The Gulf War and the Iraq War and occupation.

You also had the Dhofar Rebellion although that was mostly an internal affair with some outside influences stirring things up, as well as the almost First Gulf War when Iraq looked to be heading towards hostilities with Kuwait shortly after its independence which was headed off by the British in Operation Vantage and then Arab League forces.

Even without Israel assuming that Nasser or someone like him comes to power you're still going to see them railing again the western powers and local monarchies via Arab nationalism, and if it's Nasser then wanting to dominate the other countries in the region as well. You're still going to see a fair bit of warfare in my opinion and the US, USSR, and third parties vying for influence in the region during the Cold War.

 

[NKVD]

The Jewish migrants in the thirties was mostly refugees from Germany and Austria, if Hitler saw Yiddish speaking Jews as just another German minority, Jews in Palestina area would likely have stayed a relative small minority (20-25%) and the large influx of Jews in the thirties was also the factor which really alienated the local Arabs.

Ah, alright.

I personally think that no Holocaust would have led to a very different Israel. One smaller and possibly taking longer to establish depending on the whims of British mandate policy.

Wasn't the Mandate set to expire in the late 1940s anyways?

 

[Herzen's love-child]

I'm not sure if that was the case. In any event, it is only with the creation of Transjordan as an independent state that terminating Mandate Palestine became inevitable.

 

[Blackfox5]

Potential conflicts in the Middle East even without Israel would include:

• Syria against its neighbors in an attempt to recreate the Greater Syria of the Ottoman vilayet.
• Arab nationalists wanting a Pan-Arab Union against rulers of existing states.
• Nasserist republicanism against the Arab monarchies
• Arabs versus Persians
• Minorities (both religious and ethnic) against Arab majority
• Soviet inspired socialism against traditional governments
• Secular nationalism against traditional Islamic piety (and eventual Islamic revival)

Looking at the various wars and conflicts Nasser and his successors involved in provide good real world examples. He united with Syria before the union dissolved. He undermined various monarchies. Got into a war over Yemen. Suppressed the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

[Snake Featherston]

I personally think that no Holocaust would have led to a very different Israel. One smaller and possibly taking longer to establish depending on the whims of British mandate policy.

I disagree, Israel will still rise regardless or there'd at least be an attempt to make it for most of the same reasons. Thanks to Al-Husseini the Palestinian leadership had self-destructed, and Zionism was going for a Jewish state, period, and no outsiders were going to interfere with that. Without the Holocaust things like the King David Hotel bombing are going to give Israel the aura of a rogue Eastern Bloc state, however.

 

[Herzen's love-child]

I didn't say there wouldn't be an Israel, but that it would be a different one. In part because the creators of the Jewish State would not have held (for the sake of not starting an unrelated debate) such a good hand of perceived "high moral ground" cards. Also, without the large immigration of Jews to Israel that continued after independence, there simply would not be enough people to hold on to what it had won.

& yes, about the King David Hotel bombing.

 

[Snake Featherston]

I didn't say there wouldn't be an Israel, but that it would be a different one. In part because the creators of the Jewish State would not have held (for the sake of not starting an unrelated debate) such a good hand of perceived "high moral ground" cards. Also, without the large immigration of Jews to Israel that continued after independence, there simply would not be enough people to hold on to what it had won.

In that case we're agreed.

 

[NKVD]

I disagree, Israel will still rise regardless or there'd at least be an attempt to make it for most of the same reasons. Thanks to Al-Husseini the Palestinian leadership had self-destructed, and Zionism was going for a Jewish state, period, and no outsiders were going to interfere with that. Without the Holocaust things like the King David Hotel bombing are going to give Israel the aura of a rogue Eastern Bloc state, however.

So overall, do you think that no Holocaust would lead to a far less sympathetic view of Israel in regard to things like the Nakba and whatnot? Assuming they happen ITTL.

Because, I'm planning a TL that has to do with something like that.

 

[Snake Featherston]

So overall, do you think that no Holocaust would lead to a far less sympathetic view of Israel in regard to things like the Nakba and whatnot? Assuming they happen ITTL.

Because, I'm planning a TL that has to do with something like that.

IMHO less the Nakba and more things like the King David Hotel bombing. Attacking Arabs would be one thing to Western opinion then. Terrorism against British soldiers and civilians? Completely different.