How long could a pagan Ireland last?

[Ricardolindo]

Say Saint Patrick never got to Ireland and converted it to Christianity and, thus, it remained pagan.
How long could a pagan Ireland last? I believe it would survive the Anglo-Saxon period, as the Anglo-Saxons weren't very interested in Ireland. In addition, Ireland is a periphery of Europe so it may be ignored until late, like Lithuania was.
When do you think there would be a mission or a crusade to convert Ireland to Christianity?

 

[JustinianTheGrand]

Christianity was in Ireland long before St Patrick but lets ignore all that and somehow keep Ireland from getting any missionaries through the course of its history. I think that for a pagan ireland to last as long as you want it to you would need a strong, somewhat central state protecting it from foreign incursion. The High Kings of Ireland definitely did not have that. If Ireland stayed pagan they would get invaded earlier because Christianity in the medieval period tended to like to conquer pagan lands, consider Charlemagne. One reason ireland was mostly ignored was that it just wasnt worth taking but if paganism still remained strong there could be a lot of glory in conquering a pagan isle in the name of god. Theyd probably called the Hiberian Crusades

 

[Ricardolindo]

Christianity was in Ireland long before St Patrick but lets ignore all that and somehow keep Ireland from getting any missionaries through the course of its history. I think that for a pagan ireland to last as long as you want it to you would need a strong, somewhat central state protecting it from foreign incursion. The High Kings of Ireland definitely did not have that. If Ireland stayed pagan they would get invaded earlier because Christianity in the medieval period tended to like to conquer pagan lands, consider Charlemagne. One reason ireland was mostly ignored was that it just wasnt worth taking but if paganism still remained strong there could be a lot of glory in conquering a pagan isle in the name of god. Theyd probably called the Hiberian Crusades

Christianity was present in Ireland before Saint Patrick but without him, it's very unlikely that it would have converted so quickly.
I think Ireland may be able to remain pagan as long as Lithuania did, given its isolation.

 

[JustinianTheGrand]

Christianity was present in Ireland before Saint Patrick but without him, it's very unlikely that it would have converted so quickly.
I think Ireland may be able to remain pagan as long as Lithuania did, given its isolation.

I personally dont find that likely. I think it likely that after england consolidates they would start fighting with the pagan irish with the justification that they're pagans so its alright to just attack them. Might even give them more power to fight off the invasion of William the Bastard.

 

[Prince di Corsica]

There is the factor that the Irish monasteries had a significant role in converting Anglo-Saxon England. I imagine that without them the return of England to Christianity would be delayed, but I don't know exactly by how long and how quickly and even how fanatically. And those are all the defining factors that will determine how long after pagan Ireland would be going down the Christian road herself. Does anyone have any clue to that?

 

[Kerney]

I personally dont find that likely. I think it likely that after england consolidates they would start fighting with the pagan irish with the justification that they're pagans so its alright to just attack them. Might even give them more power to fight off the invasion of William the Bastard.

But the Saxons were converted partially from Ireland. Patrick was also a bit of a 'prototype' for medevial missionaries so the missionaries are likely less successful. Delay or have the Saxons only partially or more recently converted by the time of the Norse invasions, you have a much weaker Christian infrastructure in the islands. Think no Lindrafarne or Iona. Perhaps with the cultural gulf between Norse and Saxon being smaller, they work together or compete to raid the continent.

On the continent Irish founded Monasteries are important. They now don't exist. This means the Church is less Central to the lives in rural areas.

It would be awesome to see Saxons and Norse raiding both Ireland and the continent.

 

[Mario]

I think Pagan Ireland would mean also a mostly Pagan Britain (Christian influence drove in both directions), which would fatally mean that a whole pack of Pagan British Isles would unavoidably attract the attention of the Franks sooner than later.

It would be curious to imagine a 'crusading' campaign of the Carolingians in the Isles in the same fashion of those they did in Saxony.

 

[Prince di Corsica]

I think Pagan Ireland would mean also a mostly Pagan Britain (Christian influence drove in both directions), which would fatally mean that a whole pack of Pagan British Isles would unavoidably attract the attention of the Franks sooner than later.

It would be curious to imagine a 'crusading' campaign of the Carolingians in the Isles in the same fashion of those they did in Saxony.

For that, naval resources would be necessary. From what I can tell, the Franks were rather ineffective fighting the Norse raids, so there may be some hope for paganism in Britain (for a while at least) if they establish a decent naval tradition.

 

[water123]

For that, naval resources would be necessary. From what I can tell, the Franks were rather ineffective fighting the Norse raids, so there may be some hope for paganism in Britain (for a while at least) if they establish a decent naval tradition.

Not to mention if the Frankish Empire does things similarly to OTL, it's gonna have a time limit for any meaningful rule in Britain. After Big Carl is gone, Continental Europe will have more than enough trouble with itself. Not to mention a pagan Britain is likely poorer and overall less worth invading than, say, Islamic Spain or North Africa. If you're gonna go all that way and go through all that trouble, a kingdom in France or Aquitaine would want to just invade North Africa or Spain because there's more plentiful resources than Britain.

 

[Ricardolindo]

There is the factor that the Irish monasteries had a significant role in converting Anglo-Saxon England. I imagine that without them the return of England to Christianity would be delayed, but I don't know exactly by how long and how quickly and even how fanatically. And those are all the defining factors that will determine how long after pagan Ireland would be going down the Christian road herself. Does anyone have any clue to that?

But the Saxons were converted partially from Ireland. Patrick was also a bit of a 'prototype' for medevial missionaries so the missionaries are likely less successful. Delay or have the Saxons only partially or more recently converted by the time of the Norse invasions, you have a much weaker Christian infrastructure in the islands. Think no Lindrafarne or Iona.

Good point.

Perhaps with the cultural gulf between Norse and Saxon being smaller, they work together or compete to raid the continent.

On the continent Irish founded Monasteries are important. They now don't exist. This means the Church is less Central to the lives in rural areas.

It would be awesome to see Saxons and Norse raiding both Ireland and the continent.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ireland-without-st-patrick.140528/post-2893447 mentions the possibility of the Irish and the Vikings/Norse merging.
A combination of Vikings/Norse, Anglo-Saxons and Irish raiding the continent would, indeed, be very plausible and awesome.

I think Pagan Ireland would mean also a mostly Pagan Britain (Christian influence drove in both directions), which would fatally mean that a whole pack of Pagan British Isles would unavoidably attract the attention of the Franks sooner than later.

It would be curious to imagine a 'crusading' campaign of the Carolingians in the Isles in the same fashion of those they did in Saxony.

As the others said, the Franks didn't have a good navy.

 

[Mario]

As the others said, the Franks didn't have a good navy.

Franks did not have a good navy because they never had any good reason for creating a powerful one.

All of their campaigns were in the continent and, pirates apart, the only main threat from the sea were the Viking raids, which happened mostly after Charlemagne's death. The main Frankish cores were not located in the coastlands (rather underpopulated during their time) and even the Vikings had to sail up the Seine river and other big valleys in order to attack important Frankish targets. Also Saracen sea attacks were not important until well after the death of Charlemagne.

If they had considered that a campaign against 'evil Pagans' in the neighbouring Isles was worthy of building a proper powerful navy they had probably done it, as they could count on the logistic and engineering help from the Byzantines for such anti-Pagan purposes.

 

[Gloss]

As the others said, the Franks didn't have a good navy.

Weirdly it seems that according to Zosimus(early 6th century historian) Franks plundered Syracuse( yes the one in Sicily) during the late 3rd century., apparently from the sea. They also raidied Greece.

http://maajournal.com/Issues/2019/Vol19-2/5_Chowaniec%2019(2).pdf

Edit: I know it's far from the Carolingian times, but it is still surprising and if true would show that at least the potential for navally stronger Franks should exist.

 

[Prince di Corsica]

Franks did not have a good navy because they never had any good reason for creating a powerful one.

All of their campaigns were in the continent and, pirates apart, the only main threat from the sea were the Viking raids, which happened mostly after Charlemagne's death. The main Frankish cores were not located in the coastlands (rather underpopulated during their time) and even the Vikings had to sail up the Seine river and other big valleys in order to attack important Frankish targets. Also Saracen sea attacks were not important until well after the death of Charlemagne.

If they had considered that a campaign against 'evil Pagans' in the neighbouring Isles was worthy of building a proper powerful navy they had probably done it, as they could count on the logistic and engineering help from the Byzantines for such anti-Pagan purposes.

But why would they decide to invest all that effort against the British pagans when they had the much wealthier and just as "evil" Al-Andalus just across their border? Building a fleet is not something one does out of a whim. There are better ways to expand. And as you said, the coastal regions were de populated. Building a fleet would need to go beyond building ships and into putting up the infrastructure necessary to sustain them. A very large investment the Frankish kings would probably prefer see go towards wars among themselves or to expand to wealthier lands than the rather impoverished Britain.

Besides, I'm not as optimistic in "could count on the Byzantines for anti-pagan logistics". Why would the Byzantines teach the Franks, the very ones claiming their imperial throne, how to assemble a navy, the one thing they have to defend themselves against their attacks? An anti-pagan navy can be used for non-anti-pagan wars. Any ruler would see they would be selling the rope with which to hang themselves later.

I don't like when people put Crusader mentality, a very specific aspect of a specific time in History, in the soul of every Christian, from the Crucifixion to Vatican II. The Franks used religion as a casus belli, yes, but they used it in the way that fitted their interests. Ultimately, fighting against their Christian enemies would take precedence over the pagans across the sea. It wasn't fanaticism as much as it was opportunism.

Speaking of which, it seems Charlemagne's missionaries in Saxony were mostly Anglo-Saxons. Would a pagan Britain make conversion efforts more difficult to man or would missionaries be sought from another region? And how could that affect local Christianity?

 

[JErosion]

Also remember the Northern Crusades was so much about converting pagans as it was about "oh, look those pagans have good land and wealth, lets take it"