I assume you are talking about Uruguay, isn't? Is that evidence of expansionism or of a willingness of like-minded regimes to protect each other from the will of the people? It wouldn't have been even war, frankly, but a military coup supported by Brazilian forces in an extremely specific circumstance in an interval of 150 years without any military conflict of any kind with our neighbors (with the exception of the Acre question). This invasion would have been obviously a violation of international law and Uruguayan sovereignty, but not the reannexation of the Cisplatine.
How likely was Brazilian expansion?
- Thread starter Taunay
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it is in this case a phantom expansionism and more a fear of having a neighbor with communist tendencies (it was seen as a way to prevent a new cuba)
the reason there haven't been more wars is that the borders make sense, with two bufferstates and a free trade agreement for the rivers. There is also positivism.
Brazil's attitude change comes with the positivist military that shifts the country's focus to an internal one.
That's interesting... could you elaborate more? This is the first time I see a link between Positivism and territorial expansion
Positivism is in theory based on individual freedom and moral responsibility, the fruit of that freedom. Individual freedom and, above all, moral responsibility are fundamental precepts of positivism, as they are valuable pillars for progress.
Positivism in Brazil did not last, at least in its natural form with the military, Brazilianizing the idea. It turned about how the military are the defenders of these values and how they must protect Brazil from internal (and to a lesser extent external) dangers against these values. With that they repressed the freedom of the citizens. Therefore positivism was lost, even before the end of the First Republic (becoming a coronelista regime maintained by the halter vote with a bit of positivism on top).
Just see a Brazilian general talking about the country, it's basically about positivism and how they are the guardians of Brazil against everything (including democracy if it's against what they like).
Positivism in brazil basically became a way for the military who were not the center of the nation's universe in the empire, to be that center.
With the country under constant siege by "anti-positivist" ideas, the country focuses internally to deal with this supposed siege. Against the vision of an empire of Bragança of the empire of Brazil (which wanted a gigantic empire in the new world).
Fair enough but we had so many idiots in power that its hard to not consider that a feature of the system
Someone on this thread mentioned the Dutch holding the Northeast as a good way to slow Brazilian expansion, but being honest, it was IMO impossible for the Dutch to hold that territory for so long... Ignoring the fact that the native Brazilians were the ones who overthrew the Dutch, which means that if the Portuguese really tried, they could have easily get rid of them, Dutch Brazil was unsustainable because it was based on a pact between the Dutch government and the slaveowning sugar-cane elites, this pact would however inevitably be broken whenever the planters have the slightest suspicion that they are being financially ignored or hurt by the Netherlands. AND that is without mentioning the Protestant country holding a land that was fanatically Catholic, rebellion was inevitable, at the wankest they could have held on for 40 years, but nothing besides that
Coivara
Banned
I'm not sure, honestly, in that aspect I would defer to someone more knowledgeable.
The Portuguese AFAIK were this close to pretty much surrendering Dutch Northeast. I recall something about some portuguese arguments at the time for surrendering it: Because the Portuguese were the ones who held the slavetrade and could simply profit off the Dutch Northeast by selling them slaves anyway.
AFAIK Mauricio de Nassau was doing fairly well there, it was after him that the following administrators started screwing up and pissing off the popullace.
Of course, even if Dutch Northeast lasts longer, there's no telling if it will last indefinitively. It might just fall in the 18th century instead. The "core" of Brazil is firmly portuguese.
Plus there's the chance the Portuguese just estabilish themselves in the north directly from Portugal and push eastwards and southwards against the Dutchs, logistics would still favour them over the long haul. My chronology is wrong and Belém and São Luis were already funded by the time of the Dutch Invasions, in fact quite a few dutch invaders were kicked off during the conquest of Grão-Pará. The Dutch barely kept Maranhão for a few years.
Yeah, I don't think its looking good for "New Holand" in the long haul.
The issue is Dutch Northeast survived because of Nassau, for some reason he managed to attain a high level of popularity amongst the population that I doubt any other administrator would be able to have
Oh I always thought that Belem was founded after the Dutch had been kicked out. That's even better news for Brazilian control of the Amazon, the fact that Dutch Brazil would not be able to delay the conquest of it means that it was almost inevitable that the Amazon would be majority-Portuguese speaking
Which is why I think Nassau was kinda wasted here when he could have been sent to the East Indies to lay the groundwork for a Super Indonesia
if the Dutch keep the colony of Brazil. The Brazilian population will rebel against Portugal or will demand the right to arm themselves as a nation, for their own protection (showing that the Portuguese were incapable of protecting Brazil).
The moment there is a revolt in the Dutch colony, the Brazilians will invade to recover it.
Brazil would probably be more militarized with the trauma of having lost part of the nation for a while. A greater displeasure of the Portuguese is also likely.
The moment there is a revolt in the Dutch colony, the Brazilians will invade to recover it.
Brazil would probably be more militarized with the trauma of having lost part of the nation for a while. A greater displeasure of the Portuguese is also likely.
A more militarized Brazil in the 17th century would be a lot stronger and would expand more
probably, but the expansion is different. If it was organic before, it is likely that now it is more organized for good or bad.
without a monarchy, or if the portuguese move to brazil, the situation will be more complicated for the portuguese. With the colony more armed, it will be more complicated for Portugal to remain as equals in a union. Depending on if Portugal tries to make Brazil go back to being a colony, it is likely that Brazil instead of demanding independence, causes a civil war in the Portuguese Empire for the command of the Empire.
which would be strange for the rest of europe. The colony invades the metropolis to force a reunification. It would be the most bizarre situation in colonial history.
Answering the question of the op, I would say that Portuguese expansion was extremely likely or even inevitable for it to happen for a variety of reasons.
For example, the colonial Portuguese government in the 16th and 17th century many times officially paid or at least gave support to Bandeirantes (the explorers) who were ordered to look for gold and precious gems (the main impetus) but more often than not they did something much more important: they created trails when exploring rivers, jungles and rock formations, meaning that even if the only thing they returned with was a couple of enslaved natives, they had also created maps regarding the places and people they found, which way certain rivers flow, the best way to travel through a mountain pass, etc.
Now this is extremely important because it gave the Portuguese authorities a idea to where they should better settle their cities and where to build, meaning they knew where it was a good place to build in order to build a bigger presence(see Belém and how for many years it was basically the main influence in the Amazon river and able to rule all over the lightly populated Grão Para)
One not must discount the ox too, for much of the 17th to early and mid 18th century, the settlers fought the "Guerras Bárbaras" (lit Barbaric Wars) where because the raising of cattle and it's expansion in the interior was growing very rapidly, it led to disputes with the natives living in the interior and eventually their extermination, ensuring that the countryside was all but controlled even if not fully populated.
The end result is that unlike Spanish America, Portuguese Brazil was much better in feeling unified and relatively easy to communicate with because of the way it expanded, giving it a edge of needed to grow more that other colonies did not have (with some exceptions of course)
This would continue through the empire and republic, as people often forget that free navigation through the Plata River was important for Brazil to keep better contact with the Mato Grosso region and Solano Lopez attempting to better control it was one of the many reasons for war, because when you have a country big like Brazil communication is always important.
As a result, if we're talking about potential Brazilian expansionism all the way back towards Tordesilhas, we would see Brazil retain the Colonia of Sacramento(in the most likely case winning the Guaranitica War to solidify their claim) meaning they already would have a enclave in Uruguay they can use to expand on, a Argentina might not form if Portugal is there to take control of Buenos Aires or at least the surrounding regions to protect it's Plata River navigation as well as taking areas in Bolivia and Paraguay to better connect certain regions or "get natural borders", french Guyana is a question if Portugal can retain it during the peace of Vienna, which is hard considering it was a trading peg for them being able to continue the slave trade as well as having their claims on Olivença (a long disputed region with Spain) confirmed, so somehow strengthening their hand will help them keep it.
For example, the colonial Portuguese government in the 16th and 17th century many times officially paid or at least gave support to Bandeirantes (the explorers) who were ordered to look for gold and precious gems (the main impetus) but more often than not they did something much more important: they created trails when exploring rivers, jungles and rock formations, meaning that even if the only thing they returned with was a couple of enslaved natives, they had also created maps regarding the places and people they found, which way certain rivers flow, the best way to travel through a mountain pass, etc.
Now this is extremely important because it gave the Portuguese authorities a idea to where they should better settle their cities and where to build, meaning they knew where it was a good place to build in order to build a bigger presence(see Belém and how for many years it was basically the main influence in the Amazon river and able to rule all over the lightly populated Grão Para)
One not must discount the ox too, for much of the 17th to early and mid 18th century, the settlers fought the "Guerras Bárbaras" (lit Barbaric Wars) where because the raising of cattle and it's expansion in the interior was growing very rapidly, it led to disputes with the natives living in the interior and eventually their extermination, ensuring that the countryside was all but controlled even if not fully populated.
The end result is that unlike Spanish America, Portuguese Brazil was much better in feeling unified and relatively easy to communicate with because of the way it expanded, giving it a edge of needed to grow more that other colonies did not have (with some exceptions of course)
This would continue through the empire and republic, as people often forget that free navigation through the Plata River was important for Brazil to keep better contact with the Mato Grosso region and Solano Lopez attempting to better control it was one of the many reasons for war, because when you have a country big like Brazil communication is always important.
As a result, if we're talking about potential Brazilian expansionism all the way back towards Tordesilhas, we would see Brazil retain the Colonia of Sacramento(in the most likely case winning the Guaranitica War to solidify their claim) meaning they already would have a enclave in Uruguay they can use to expand on, a Argentina might not form if Portugal is there to take control of Buenos Aires or at least the surrounding regions to protect it's Plata River navigation as well as taking areas in Bolivia and Paraguay to better connect certain regions or "get natural borders", french Guyana is a question if Portugal can retain it during the peace of Vienna, which is hard considering it was a trading peg for them being able to continue the slave trade as well as having their claims on Olivença (a long disputed region with Spain) confirmed, so somehow strengthening their hand will help them keep it.
Coivara
Banned
This is a pretty good and reasonable map. I think its possible.it will be a war for Paraguay to the extreme. It will probably be the bloodiest war on the American continent. Especially if brazil manages to call chile to war with promises of winning the disputed lands and a few more. the Paraguayan war ended with 440,000 dead. This war will have at least twice as many, 880 thousand. It will probably be 3.5 more, giving the total dead in this war 1.408 million dead. Maybe another 200 to 250 thousand if the governments of all sides fight hard and if the nations do like solano lopez this goes to the two million easily.
this is the best map of the future of brazil. if cisplatin stays inside the empire.
Argentina in this case will basically be a puppet of Brazil. It's the only way to have tranquility in the region with uruguay in the hands of brazil
if Brazil holds on to Uruguay, takes Paraguay, and grabs Argentina Mesopotamia, you've unlocked a maritime highway into the Brazilian interior.
I also like it because it reminds me of the normal shape of Brazil.
But what happened with Bolivia here, and what happened to the rest of Bolivia? Buffer state between Brazi and Chile? Taken by Chile or Peru?
Argentina is SO getting big ol' shaft in this deal. Then again, at least it wans't annexed. It would be Brazil's Mexico ITTL.
Brazil ITTL might be more south-centered. I wonder if this could lead to an earlier Brasilia-equivalent built during the late 1800s or early 1900s. Perhaps in a more southerly location, like São João Del Rey?
Being able to navigate from Rio to the North and the middle of the country might result in a stronger brazilian state on the long haul. Hinterlands might get colonized earlier and a more river-based colonization similar to the North and the colonial times, whereas in OTL after the 1950s we got Road-centered colonization.
One issue is going to be the big spanish-speaking minority inside Brazil. Argentiean Mesopotamia and Cisplatina are going to be like the Brazilian equivalents of Quebec. I wonder if we will see a preservation of biliguism or the state trying to assimilate these people by teaching them portuguese. I don't remember Brazil ever getting such a sudden influx of foreign speakers.
Paraguay is also a linguistic-cultural issue. AFAIK the main language at the time was Guarani, Spanish was the province of the rich classes and european immigrants. Ironically, being a indigenous language might help, especially once/if romantism hits - Brazilian Romantism loved to flirt with Indigenism. Spanish in Paraguay is probably being supplanted by Portuguese in the long haul and Paraguay spanish might become a cute footnote, or spoken by a small community. Paraguay is also such a desolate place that Guarani might never get supplanted by Portuguese - all the immigrants who would do so would be too busy going to Argentinean Mesopotamia, the South and the Brazilian Southeast.
There's also French Guyana, but idk how much people live there.
Depending on who's in charge, we might see everything from a forced Portuguese assimilation policy to Brazil becoming a multi-lingual country akin to Canada with Portuguese as the primary language.
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I would say they would be assimilated. I don't think they would become Quebec, Brazil was much bigger than those two regions, so at most I can see 40 percent of those regions speaking Spanish, but it wouldn't make much a dent in national demographics
It really depends on the time frame, until the 1990s Brazil would probably adopt forced assimilation simply due to how conservative our country is and how important Portuguese is to national identity, in the 2000s this issue will become a culture war between those who support bilingualism and those who will support more assimilation.
In the 2010s depending on whether the left governs, policies preserving Spanish and Guarani would he adopted, but I think that this would not help much because it would be too late to save Spanish in either Paraguay, Uruguay or Mesopotamia. BUT Guarani is IMO guaranteed to be saved by this policy, it was very widely spoken and as you said Brazilian Romanticism would inspire many activists to protect the language even during the forced assimilation policies
Yes, Brazil is Mexico!
Dont you know my fello amigo? Its our plan to lead the gringos into a false sense of security!
Portuguese and spanish really are the same thing and soon enough our glorious nation of Brazexico will strike when their guard is down!