I see the Dutch selling their share, not the French . Maybe ask the Germans in the German Unification War to sell this territory ?
it is likely that if brazil maintains uruguay that the war in paraguay will be argentian and paraguay vs brazil
How likely was Brazilian expansion?
- Thread starter Taunay
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I think you are making it out to be more than it is. And it matters if you say Guyana you have to involve the British somehow and THAT makes a huge difference in ATL.
Maybe the date should slide more to the Venezuelan crisis of 1895? Which marked the Venezuelan crisis of 1902–1903 where the US more or less pushed the Monroe Doctrine and the Europeans did not push the US further?
it will be a war for Paraguay to the extreme. It will probably be the bloodiest war on the American continent. Especially if brazil manages to call chile to war with promises of winning the disputed lands and a few more. the Paraguayan war ended with 440,000 dead. This war will have at least twice as many, 880 thousand. It will probably be 3.5 more, giving the total dead in this war 1.408 million dead. Maybe another 200 to 250 thousand if the governments of all sides fight hard and if the nations do like solano lopez this goes to the two million easily.
this is the best map of the future of brazil. if cisplatin stays inside the empire.
Argentina in this case will basically be a puppet of Brazil. It's the only way to have tranquility in the region with uruguay in the hands of brazil
if Brazil holds on to Uruguay, takes Paraguay, and grabs Argentina Mesopotamia, you've unlocked a maritime highway into the Brazilian interior.
Annexing Upper Peru/Bolivia as a whole seems a logistical nightmare, the spanish southern andes have never been linked in any way with Brazil, and the Guaykuru make travel through the Chaco unreliable until the later 19th century, to give you an idea, in 1822, the governors of upper peru asked Pedro to annex them as part of Portugal through the governor of mato grosso, by the time the letter reached Rio Brazil had declared its independence
(barely related but I also see a lot of people underestimate how pacified mato grosso was in the 19th century, amerindian were still a threat through the whole imperial era)
I think a more realistic approach would be to have Santa Cruz as a satellite republic, given its historical political and social difference with the Peruvian Andes, then come 1900 it could probably be annexed, like Acre was.
(barely related but I also see a lot of people underestimate how pacified mato grosso was in the 19th century, amerindian were still a threat through the whole imperial era)
I think a more realistic approach would be to have Santa Cruz as a satellite republic, given its historical political and social difference with the Peruvian Andes, then come 1900 it could probably be annexed, like Acre was.
the problem is that south america has several civilizations that do not interact with each other. so venezuela can be completely influenced by usa and this has little impact on southern cone countries (brazil, argentina, uruguay, paraguay)
this is a very interesting idea. bolivia (a part of it) becomes a protectorate that is annexed in the future
Big Brazilit will be a war for Paraguay to the extreme. It will probably be the bloodiest war on the American continent. Especially if brazil manages to call chile to war with promises of winning the disputed lands and a few more. the Paraguayan war ended with 440,000 dead. This war will have at least twice as many, 880 thousand. It will probably be 3.5 more, giving the total dead in this war 1.408 million dead. Maybe another 200 to 250 thousand if the governments of all sides fight hard and if the nations do like solano lopez this goes to the two million easily.
this is the best map of the future of brazil. if cisplatin stays inside the empire.
Argentina in this case will basically be a puppet of Brazil. It's the only way to have tranquility in the region with uruguay in the hands of brazil
if Brazil holds on to Uruguay, takes Paraguay, and grabs Argentina Mesopotamia, you've unlocked a maritime highway into the Brazilian interior.
and the chile would not be long, but it will be larger in the southern part. The map is going to be horrible I already feel it
Nonetheless it would be interesting to explore a scenario in which the letter arrives on time.
Coivara
Banned
Tordesilhas was dead on arrival. It was a map made before there was even an idea of the land. The parties knew there was some land to the west and that was it.
I think its inevitable that if Portugal manages to retain its colonies against invasions by the Dutch and French in the 16th-17th century, the Portuguese would expand further West.
The Bandeirantes never cared much for Tordesilhas, if ever. Heck, there is a report of bandeirantes sacking Incan outposts. They wanted their gold and their slaves, and did not care where either came from.
Even without the Iberian Union, I doubt Portuguese expansion would be stopped in any way. Like someone said earlier in the thread, geography simply favours the Luso-Brazilians.
Worst case, I think we would get a Portuguese/Brazilian equivalent of the Mexican-American war, where Brazil takes big chunks of land owned by Spain or its sucessor countries, chunks that have large quantities of Brazilians. Like Acre but bigger.
Treaty of Madrid just recognized the reality on the ground.
If you want a smaller Portuguese Brazil, you need to wank Antartic France and Dutch Northeast. It was the defeat of the Dutch invasion which opened the way to the North, the conquest of the French colony there and the foundation of Belém. Once you have cities like Belém and such, the Amazon is pretty much closed to anyone else. No Iberian Union will not stop this, if anything we might see earlier colonization of the North because men and riches aren't being wasted on fighting the Dutch attacks against the Portuguese colonies.
I think its inevitable that if Portugal manages to retain its colonies against invasions by the Dutch and French in the 16th-17th century, the Portuguese would expand further West.
The Bandeirantes never cared much for Tordesilhas, if ever. Heck, there is a report of bandeirantes sacking Incan outposts. They wanted their gold and their slaves, and did not care where either came from.
Even without the Iberian Union, I doubt Portuguese expansion would be stopped in any way. Like someone said earlier in the thread, geography simply favours the Luso-Brazilians.
Worst case, I think we would get a Portuguese/Brazilian equivalent of the Mexican-American war, where Brazil takes big chunks of land owned by Spain or its sucessor countries, chunks that have large quantities of Brazilians. Like Acre but bigger.
Treaty of Madrid just recognized the reality on the ground.
If you want a smaller Portuguese Brazil, you need to wank Antartic France and Dutch Northeast. It was the defeat of the Dutch invasion which opened the way to the North, the conquest of the French colony there and the foundation of Belém. Once you have cities like Belém and such, the Amazon is pretty much closed to anyone else. No Iberian Union will not stop this, if anything we might see earlier colonization of the North because men and riches aren't being wasted on fighting the Dutch attacks against the Portuguese colonies.
Wow that's an interesting take, I've seen many people on this site argue that Brazilian expansion would be smaller without the Iberian Union
Agreed
you would also need the pope to divide Latin America differently in
Treaty of Tordesillas - Wikipedia
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The pope at the time, from what I read on this site, already had a pro-Spain biasyou would also need the pope to divide Latin America differently in 1994.
Treaty of Tordesillas - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
(I forgot the name of the thread but I guess it was about Tordesillas and a Portugal-wank)
This one?
Why did Portugal accept the revisions to Alcáçovas in the Papal Bull of Inter Caetera and Tordesillas Treaty?
Why did Portugal accept the revision of the favorable Treaty of Alcáçovas of 1479, which granted them an exclusive right to maritime global trade and conquest south of the Tropic of Cancer (and then some), and Castille getting the rights to the north, [see map above], in favor of first, the...
www.alternatehistory.com
Exactly!
@Phalamus said:
So yeah, the Papacy was pretty pro-Spain, and even then Portuguese America managed to expand...
One wonders how things might have gone if the Pope at that time was Jorge da Costa, a Portuguese archbishop
Er... how do you define willingness? Because the existence of military plans or the fact that some idiot at the top (Janio Quadros) imagined that it could happen doesn't mean it was likely or that the Brazilian Elites were willing to bet everything in a military invasion for a mostly unlivable jungle because... reasons. We have plenty already.
People can argue that Brazilian expansion post-independence was sometimes forceful (like against Bolivia in Acre, but even then it had a mostly bloodless diplomatic solution, as usual) or the aftermath of the Paraguayan War, but you cannot argue that Brazil had a expansionist animus, because we simply never needed to have one. We cannot obviously deny the fact the Brazil frequently intervened in the River Plate during the first half of the 19th century, but we can argue that the core Brazilian borders are roughly like those established at the treaty of Madrid, which needed plenty of adjustments in the following century and half because people didn't and couldn't have much of a idea of how to properly fix the frontiers in the jungle, except at the mentioned case of the River Plate.
Now, to the topic at hand, it's extremely improbable that you could stop any phenomenon like the Bandeirantes happening after European Colonization began. Even if you somehow doom the Portuguese colonies, another European power is going to undergo necessarily a similar process of internal expansion, even if with very different results. What made my country so big was geography and the fact that the Indians were constantly decimated by diseases and sometimes intermingled with the colonizers (and that helped a lot, even if Brazilian colonization was mostly based on the litoral until roughly the 18th century). The fact that eventually the Bandeiras found precious resources in Minas Gerais was also vital to the process of expansion. Since the incentive of looking for gold and precious minerals isn't going away, I think it is likely that the same thing could have happened with other European Powers.
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the invasion did not take place because the Brazilians managed to rig the election and put the person they wanted in power