How inevitable was the little ice age by the 9th century?

[De von Of]

Ther are a lot of possible causes for the little ice age. Just looking at the Wikipedia page gives you everything from orbital cycles, over sunspots and volcanoes to reduced human population after the plague.

Some of those are described as extremely variable, some seem inevitable.

So what I wanted to ask is the following: If I wanted to write a timeline starting in the 9th century, can the little ice age simply be butterflied away?

 

[twovultures]

If you subscribe to the Genghis Khan/Black Death theory, then the Little Ice Age can be postponed. However, sooner or later, the desire for empire and trade will result to some proxy of both the above eliminating enough people to lower the carbon footprint and so cause global cooling.

 

[Draeger]

If you subscribe to the Genghis Khan/Black Death theory, then the Little Ice Age can be postponed. However, sooner or later, the desire for empire and trade will result to some proxy of both the above eliminating enough people to lower the carbon footprint and so cause global cooling.

If you really think that the few hundred million people alive on the planet before the Mongols/Black Death hit Europe affected the collective carbon footprint so much that a third of them dying caused centuries of global cooling then I suppose you'd believe just about anything.

I don't buy it. The planet goes through cycles. Humanity just happened to hit the enlightenment at the height of a global cooling cycle, such that we were permanently affected by it. That's why the idea of 'global warming' is so scary to us, even though it's completely natural for the planet to go through warming and cooling cycles.

Next you'll be telling me that it was the mass extinction of the dinosaurs alone that caused the earth to temperate-ify, not the asteroid impact and subsequent volcanic activity that shrouded the earth in dust for millennia afterward.

 

[De von Of]

Volcanic activity however seems like a popular cause for the little ice age.

If that were the cause it definitely wouldn't have to be inevitable.

 

[De von Of]

Anyone else?

 

[Draeger]

Butterflying away regular and normal climate change is ASB.

 

[Johnrankins]

This belongs in the ASB section since it is a geological POD and those go there. That said it is probably inevitable since there is no way human beings could have possibly effected the weather cycle.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

Disregarding the people who want to bring the modern global warming debate into this, I would say that it was a combination of factors. Humans had some influence, as did heightened volcanic activity, and of course some natural climate variability. That said, assuming volcanic activity is not as high, or you don't get the human population crash (or both), you'd probably have a much less dramatic cooling period.

 

[Johnrankins]

Disregarding the people who want to bring the modern global warming debate into this, I would say that it was a combination of factors. Humans had some influence, as did heightened volcanic activity, and of course some natural climate variability. That said, assuming volcanic activity is not as high, or you don't get the human population crash (or both), you'd probably have a much less dramatic cooling period.

How on Gods name could a relative handful of humans have any impact on the weather?

 

[SlyDessertFox]

How on Gods name could a relative handful of humans have any impact on the weather?

They can't. What they can have an impact on, is the climate. It was probably only a small effect, but for the sake of a thread on this being discussed in the pre-1900 section, it's really the only effect that can be altered. Considering the black death dropped the world population from 450 to 350 million, there's bound to be some effect from that drastic of a population crash.

 

[De von Of]

This belongs in the ASB section since it is a geological POD and those go there. That said it is probably inevitable since there is no way human beings could have possibly effected the weather cycle.

It is not a POD.

Vulcanic activity (which seems for me right now to be the most likely culprit) is definitely not pre-determined but highly variable, thus subject to Butterflies.

Indeed it would seem to be more ASB to expect all vulcanic activity (and by extension the little ice age) to be exactly the same in all possible timelines.

 

[unprincipled peter]

how do you alter volcanic activity? throw in a virgin?

 

[De von Of]

how do you alter volcanic activity? throw in a virgin?

It's random.

 

[Johnrankins]

They can't. What they can have an impact on, is the climate. It was probably only a small effect, but for the sake of a thread on this being discussed in the pre-1900 section, it's really the only effect that can be altered. Considering the black death dropped the world population from 450 to 350 million, there's bound to be some effect from that drastic of a population crash.

Effect on the other populations of animals on Earth, yes. The climate? I doubt it.

 

[Johnrankins]

It is not a POD.

Vulcanic activity (which seems for me right now to be the most likely culprit) is definitely not pre-determined but highly variable, thus subject to Butterflies.

Indeed it would seem to be more ASB to expect all vulcanic activity (and by extension the little ice age) to be exactly the same in all possible timelines.

I was referring to this https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=314343. It is the top sticky on the forum. By the boards rules it is an ASB subject.

 

[De von Of]

I was referring to this https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=314343. It is the top sticky on the forum. By the boards rules it is an ASB subject.

It's not a POD.

For the most part random events like earthquakes and vulcanic activity can not be expected to happen exactly the same as OTL because of the butterfly effect in a timeline that diverged centuries ago.

Remember, we are talking about a theoretical timeline that diverged in the 9th century, with the butterfly effect having an impact on a random event that happened IOTL 500 years later (the little ice age).

 

[Johnrankins]

It's not a POD.

For the most part random events like earthquakes and vulcanic activity can not be expected to happen exactly the same as OTL because of the butterfly effect in a timeline that diverged centuries ago.

Remember, we are talking about a theoretical timeline that diverged in the 9th century, with the butterfly effect having an impact on a random event that happened IOTL 500 years later (the little ice age).

I am sure the mods will move it to ASB. No matter how you look at it something has changed.

 

[unprincipled peter]

earthquakes and volcanos aren't random. They're a result of set physical forces, and they happen for a reason.

 

[Chairwoman Roxelana]

Effect on the other populations of animals on Earth, yes. The climate? I doubt it.

All of those plants and animals contribute to the global climate. The countless number of trees regrowing in fields abandoned due to population crashes would result in many tons of carbon dioxide being sequestered in them.

 

[Johnrankins]

All of those plants and animals contribute to the global climate. The countless number of trees regrowing in fields abandoned due to population crashes would result in many tons of carbon dioxide being sequestered in them.

Very marginal at best. I doubt it would be measurable.