How fast could the Nazis reach space?
- Thread starter Tresckow
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It's complicated, yet also not. You see, as many, many, many people have pointed out, the Nazi's both expelled their top scientists and alienated international cooperation due to their antisemitism and also shot themselves in the foot, a lot. Especially the SS, who called many of the Nazi's leading scientists that weren't Jewish and were actually vital in Hitler's "Wonder Weapons", "White Jews" and plotted against them big time. If they won the war, then maybe, as the growing power of the SS, especially with the primary objective of Living Space being completed, would have to be addressed. But in an ASB, Handwaved Away War? The SS would have made sure it would have taken the same amount of time as everyone else to get to space as everyone else, with a maximum of just a few years ahead at most.
Space only happens when you have an ICBM. Well, at least an IRBM. I don't think the Nazi regime lasts long enough for that.
hammo1j
Donor
I once thought about a timeline where the Nazis put a soldier standing up in the successor to the V2 which is the A4. It it would be something like the A6 model so it would be slightly broader.
However, I realized that the human body wouldn't stand liquid fuel rocket acceleration unless you were lying down as OTL!
However, I realized that the human body wouldn't stand liquid fuel rocket acceleration unless you were lying down as OTL!
I disagree. While the Third Reich would collapse eventually, if we're talking about a Third Reich on par with @CalBear's Anglo-American/Nazi War, the regime, assuming no resumption of the war, could probably survive at least until the 1990s if not longer.
I think we tend to overestimate the importance of the economy in such a scenario. Assuming you've eliminated all internal opposition to the ruling party, there's really nothing stopping the regime lasting for a fairly long time. Remember, the only reason the Soviet Union collapsed when it did was because Gorbachev upset the apple cart by attempting to reform the system and thereby exposing that the whole system was rotted. Without the attempted reforms the Soviet Union probably lasts at least another decade or two.
As for a hypothetical US-Third Reich Space Race... I don't think the Germans would develop any faster (in fact if anything the space race might well be delayed by five or more years). I do think that the Space Race, up to and including the race to the Moon, would be more competitive for longer. But that's about it. You might see both an American and German lunar landings.
Well, technically they already reached space OTL, with the V-2 being the first manmade object to breach the Karman line but I know that's not what you are asking, so, let's see, it kind of depends on the strategic situation in Europe, though, I guess in both cases (win or no WW2) they will end up with the A-9/A-10 variant, or a stretched A-4 (as that was in the works) and keep building upon that for a few years, with the odd scientific rocket launch happening from time to time.
After 1946/1947? It's anyone's guess how the space program (if there's one to begin with) will end up looking. They could continue pushing for Lox and Alcohol engines, for Hydrazine or Nitric acid, going towards the R-6 (predecessor to the R-7 Soviet rocket) or towards the Diamant rocket or with their own A-9/A-10/A-11 rocket. Which might push them to send something in orbit before anyone else. If they keep funding newer and better rockets throughout the 40s and early 50s, I will say they could launch something in space in 1952-53, a human in 1955.
After 1946/1947? It's anyone's guess how the space program (if there's one to begin with) will end up looking. They could continue pushing for Lox and Alcohol engines, for Hydrazine or Nitric acid, going towards the R-6 (predecessor to the R-7 Soviet rocket) or towards the Diamant rocket or with their own A-9/A-10/A-11 rocket. Which might push them to send something in orbit before anyone else. If they keep funding newer and better rockets throughout the 40s and early 50s, I will say they could launch something in space in 1952-53, a human in 1955.
The Soviets, building off the V-2 pretty much without pause, didn't launch a man into orbit until 1961. The Americans took until 1962 (though they pissed away the first 7 years of the Cold War).
That's a bad example. The Soviets wasted a lot of time trying to first set up their industrial base, then to build the V-2 (R-1) with native parts, lacked quality in their builds and only later on did they start to look into ICBM. The Germans planned to have one by 1946/47.
The difference between everyone and Germany is that they have momentum in rocketry, they have an industrial center meant to build rockets, they have thousands of workers there, they have years of experience and knowledge from 1934 onwards and so on.
I think a victorious Nazi Germany would still have a significant head start over the OTL Soviet Union. For them, there's no initial stage of reverse-engineering captured rockets or getting info from the co-opted German engineers, it's just a little-interrupted continuation of the A-series rocket program, as they had originally planned to do. The A10 ICBM was apparently set for a first flight in 1946 (until Germany started losing the war), the A11 design added a third stage to it and could have put a satellite in orbit. I could easily see them being about 8-10 years ahead of the OTL Soviets. On the bright side, the US gets its wakeup call earlier than 1957 and starts working to race against and surpass them earlier, and they eventually would.
I think it's also worth remembering that the Soviet Union in OTL was utterly devastated by WW2, to an extent far worse than any other Allied country, or even the defeated Axis powers. They had to stop the German invasion, then beat them back, then invade them, in the process losing 27 million people and entire cities' worth of infrastructure to scorched-earth tactics. All the things they managed to do in the postwar world, occupying half of Europe, becoming a global superpower, and kicking off the space race, came despite it suffering from some of the worst war devastation any modern nation ever has, and having to rebuild from that.
A victorious Axis, that managed to defeat the Soviet Union and hold the Atlantic Wall, would have suffered a lot less. They'd have never been invaded, and having never lost air superiority (IOTL it took until after Stalingrad to lose it over Continental Europe, and longer to lose it over Germany itself), damage from Allied strategic bombing would be far less than OTL. So I think it'd almost certainly be richer, more powerful, and have a much higher standard of living (at least for the German people) than the OTL USSR in the years right after WW2. The rot inherent to the system would set in eventually (and worse so than with the USSR), but for the first part of the Cold War I think they would be a considerably more formidable rival for the US, both on Earth and in Space.
Wolf1965
Donor
That very much depends on what NAZI regime survives the war in what shape, and what motivation it would have to build rockets bigger than the A4/V2.
If the war ends after the Fall of France, maybe somebody shoots Hitler during his visit to Paris, and an armistice ensued a somewhat stable Third Reich could happen. Without Hitler I do not see Germany going after the USSR and that would be weary of war after the disaster called the Winter War.
It would lead to a Cold War, but would that provide enough motivation to keep the rocket program running at such high gear? On the other hand, certain raw materials might be in better supply, keeping the engineers from spending time trying to substitute materials.
If we assume that Göring ends up as Fuehrer with his interest in all things aeronautical it might mean a satellite in 1955 or earlier.
If the war ends after the Fall of France, maybe somebody shoots Hitler during his visit to Paris, and an armistice ensued a somewhat stable Third Reich could happen. Without Hitler I do not see Germany going after the USSR and that would be weary of war after the disaster called the Winter War.
It would lead to a Cold War, but would that provide enough motivation to keep the rocket program running at such high gear? On the other hand, certain raw materials might be in better supply, keeping the engineers from spending time trying to substitute materials.
If we assume that Göring ends up as Fuehrer with his interest in all things aeronautical it might mean a satellite in 1955 or earlier.
I tend to assume that an Axis victory most likely means Operation Barbarossa happening more or less on schedule, because the idea of Lebensraum and opposing Communism was integral enough to Nazi ideology that it appeared as far back as Mein Kampf. And the US entering the war, because it's hard to convince Japan to not go for a southern strategy after Khalkhin Gol went badly for them. So, the only way for it to end with an Axis victory (at least for Europe; the US will still be motivated to fight Japan to the end) would be for Germany to defeat the Soviet Union, and keep its hold on Europe until the Atlantic Wall is built up enough to deter a Western Allied invasion (easier to do when they're not fighting the Soviets and have plenty of Soviet citizens as forced labour). With the Allied demand for peace being unconditional surrender, no official peace is possible. Air battles and strategic bombings probably continue until both sides start taking too-heavy losses from increasingly strong air defenses, and the Battle of the Atlantic lasts until the Allied navies are strong enough to (mostly) keep U-boats from being a problem for shipping. So you have what's an unofficial peace that's only maintained by the unspoken agreement to stay out of each others' turf, because any forces who don't get quickly found and destroyed. There's probably frequent and heavy skirmishes. Technically a Cold War, but barely cold, verging on tepid.
Such a situation would absolutely motivate Germany to keep its rocket program running at high gear. The A10 rocket was itself a two-stage ICBM, designed to have enough range to hit the Eastern US. And with a first flight scheduled for 1946, they might be able to lob some at the US before the fighting dies down (while it would probably be delayed for a year or two given the obvious technical challenges, I think there's a good chance they'd make their schedule given the Nazis' go-for-broke attitude towards aerospace projects). From there, further ICBM designs are pursued for the same reasons as OTL, as this world is also in a Cold War, albeit a much more intense one. And of course, with earlier ICBMs from Germany, the US also begins pursuing ICBMs earlier than they did in OTL. From there, space programs begin as a natural offshoot of their development.
In fact, the A10 rockets were designed to be manned, since radio guidance wasn't considered accurate enough for targeting at such a distance in the mid 1940s. So Germany may take the win for first manned suborbital flight before the war's over. Though there's little to no chance that those poor pilots would live to enjoy it.
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I think it strongly depends on what kind of victory they have. Pre-1939 Nazis could take a while as they wouldn't have the resources for it, Nazi Europe without war against the Soviets could do it pretty soon if it is their focus, Nazis with all of the Soviet Union conquered would take a lot longer since most of the resources will be eaten up by their genocide of eastern Europeans.
The Germans certainly had the expertise with von Brauns rocket engineer club and the technology would follow too. Only question is if you can make up a scenario wherein the Nazis make a space program to a national focus. A three way space race between America-Soviets-Nazis would be cool.
This is not true at all. Siemens, AEG, Telefunken, Carl Zeiss, Carl Lorenz, Konrad Zuse, Bosch, Loewe, ect. all of them were among the leading electronics companies of their their time. Germanys rise as a great power was made possible by chemical and electronics companies. IIRC, the Nazis considered bombing some power generators in Moscow since they had the plans for them as the generators were built by Siemens.
Wolf1965
Donor
I am pretty sure that it is all over once the USSR and the US enter stage left. The most realistic chance of a longer lasting (play puke.wav) Third Reich is to avoid that, which is why my proposal killed Hitler off. As NAZI ideology strongly revolved around him a new Führer could write new rules. If we kill Hitler later I suspect that Himmler will become the new head honcho, and he will go for the USSR for sure.
And yet the Allies near consistently outclassed them in the electronics department. Terrain mapping radar, radio transponders, radio navigation, radar assisted bombing, electronic countermeasures - the Germans and Japanese never surpassed these American and British developments.
And the Germans outclassed the Allies in the electronics department during the early war years. (1939-1941) You gain an advantage for a few months or years then you lose it, only for the circle to repeat, for example, the Germans already were improving on British and US designs by 1944 from captured examples, some prototypes being more advanced (in the case of cavity magnetron) than what the Allies had in 1945, though, what the Germans lacked and the Allies had plenty was an un-bombed electronics industry.
What is to stop them from developing this following their victory? The Soviets didn't have much of these technologies during the war yet they quickly caught up to the western Allies despite losing tens of millions of their people and being ravaged by war and destruction. Research and development does not happen in a vacuum. Researchers exchange ideas and work together. Germany evidently had a large electronics industry and without a generation of German scientists 6ft deep under the eastern front, there is potential for them to catch up with the wAllies. Furthermore, Nazi victory means most of mainland Europe will be Nazi aligned so the Nazis will pool resources such as money and researchers from occupied Europe.
The Nazis had all sorts of plans and timetables like draining the Mediterranean. If WW2 doesn't happen, but the Nazis exist, then the Nazi regime collapses before an IRBM is built. If the Nazis never exist, and it's just the Germans, why are they building IRBMs? To hit Moscow? If it's A-A/NW, then the war did happen. Alright, what do they develop in that case?
The fact that neither the Soviets nor the Americans, who both had teams of German scientists, developed anything like the A10 (and, in fact, on both sides of the Pole, stabilizing fins were the first things to go) suggests the design was impractical. The Soviets, after building the R-1 (V-2 clone) and the R-2 (improved V-2) wanted to jump straight to the R-3, with a 3000km range (equivalent to that of the A-9/10 combo. They couldn't make the engines for it to work, so they went the incremental R-5 instead, and the R-7 wasn't ready until 1957.
You can say, "Well, the Soviets were devastated by the war," but the fact is, they had about the same economic base size as the Germans, and by the early 50s, were bounced back. Now, the Americans were able to build an SRBM with additional stages to launch a minimum satellite by 1956, and IRBMs were done by 1957. We also had more than half the world's GNP to through around.
In no world do the Nazis have that, even A-A/NW, so I think mid to late 50s for a minimum satellite is reasonable if they even bother to finish their missile program.