How does southern politics evolve with a successful democratic 80s?

[peeter]

Obviously a successful democratic 1980s is a scenario that is interesting to me and a lot of people on the site. Realistically for it to happen the POD is a Republican whether it’s Ford or Reagan wins in 1976 and their term is a disaster where the economy is in the tank by election time ( for example the 76-80 republican term scenarios done by @CountDVB and @KingSweden24 ). Then a democrat of the more liberal ilk wins then gets credit for the recovering economy and implements a liberal economic agenda.

As stated by my title I'm curious about how a scenario like this effects the politics of the south. Through the 70s and 80s the republicans were starting to lay the groundworks for the eventual gingrich revolution that saw the south from the congressional and local/state levels truly trend red.
However a distatrious republican 76-80 term and a successful democratic 80s presidency creates an interesting scenario in how the south responds. I personally think it would keep southern states like Tennesse, West Virgina, Kentucky, Arkansas, and maybe Texas safely democrat while the deep south states stay blue during the 80s to early 90s then trends to purple from the late 90s-now.

How do you guys predict the politics of the south evolve with a bad Republican 76-80 presidency and a successful liberal democratic 80s.

 

[Ditzy Vixen (RossN)]

I think it depends on exactly how the Democrats stay dominant.

If we are talking about a liberal Democrat in the White House this might actually accelerate the South turning red - there are a lot of social issues that are going to produce a clash there.

 

[Gabingston]

Had Carter either not ran or lost to a Republican in '76, he could've very well won in 1980. I think he would've won most of the South as he did in '76 IOTL. The Democrats already had a monopoly on the black vote by that time, and Jimmy would've won a good amount (if not the majority) of the white vote in the South in this alt-1980. This also would've kept the GOP from fully capturing the then-rising Evangelical movement.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

National healthcare and a basic income being a thing thanks to the 80s democrat[1] removes quite a bit of leverage over the individual that various institutions use. Kiss both the christian right and soccer moms o OTL, nevermind their direct successors of the "postliberal right" and SJWs/current wave of progressivism goodbye. Yes there'll be puritans and bigots plenty, but OTL's situation where both parties are focusing on upper-middle class culture wars won't happen. Forget dixie, NATIONAL politicsl ook weird.

My guess is temporary swing towards dems in dixie, with the big diference is that when the republicans get back into power, the remaining dem coalition will be working class. Still minority-focused for obvious reasons, but remaining dem whites in the south will be working class. Think Charlie Wilson type good ol' boys instead of prissy overeducated suburbanites. Much less "free market" than OTL southern dems. Also, without the disasterous attempts of Jackson to try running no reason for the rest of the party establishment to force black politicians/voters only on direct patronage/representation. You'd see black voters acting as a force pushing dems economically and to a lesser extent socially left instead of OTL's pattern of them lining up behind the most establishment automatically.

[1] most likely pod is ford winning since we came close enough and with the conservadem approach flopping no way do they run a con in 1980

 

[peeter]

If we are talking about a liberal Democrat in the White House this might actually accelerate the South turning red

Would the south trust the republicans in the 80s or early 90s though? At the end of the day people want to be closer to the seat of power and southerners may see more value in trying to get concessions out of democrats rather than hitch their wagons to a party that would have built itself a deep hole in the 70s.

The 70s and 80s were the republicans chances to show not just the south but conservatives nationwide that they could be trusted to apply conservatism on the national level and in this instance they’d fail. Which is why I say the late 90s is when the Republican Party can get a foothold in

 

[Gabingston]

Also, without the disasterous attempts of Jackson to try running no reason for the rest of the party establishment to force black politicians/voters only on direct patronage/representation. You'd see black voters acting as a force pushing dems economically and to a lesser extent socially left instead of OTL's pattern of them lining up behind the most establishment automatically.

Aren't African-Americans moderate to even somewhat conservative on non-racial social issues? They may push the party to the left on issues directly related to race, but not on stuff like, say, gay marriage or abortion.

 

[CountDVB]

I think it depends on exactly how the Democrats stay dominant.

If we are talking about a liberal Democrat in the White House this might actually accelerate the South turning red - there are a lot of social issues that are going to produce a clash there.

That depends though. Social issues aren’t gonna be enough to save the GOP if their economic policies screw people over and they’re left holding the bag. In fact, this would focus for the liberal Republicans to reclaim the party and pretty much left the Dems run rampant.

@KingSweden24 and I do have our various approaches and I appreciate his work.

But I would see massive reforms done to welfare and reinforcing it, including universal healthcare, probably based on the British model if tweaked. Would also avert the large chaos with over-financialization

By 1992, I’d see the GOP take back power only under someone like Arlen Specter, culminating with the rise of new liberal Republicans governors while in early 2000s, the Dems finish their shift with progressive folks like Russ Feingold and Paul Wellstone becoming the new benchmarks for the Democrats.

 

[Don Corleone]

In OTL, the three factors that made states redder:

Rising incomes: Dixiecrats bitterly complained that "if you put $100 in a man's pocket all of a sudden he thinks he has to vote Republican".

In-migration: People from outside the South didn't consider "Republican" a dirty word.

Urbanization: More urbanized Southern states turned red faster. Most likely correlated with economic development because urbanites are more liberal on social issues.

A successful 1980s economy under the Democrats might result in less regional migration, which would benefit Democrats in the South. The rising incomes would have a mixed result, with people having more to lose from higher taxes but also giving the Democrats credit for the economy.

 

[peeter]

In OTL, the three factors that made states redder:

Rising incomes: Dixiecrats bitterly complained that "if you put $100 in a man's pocket all of a sudden he thinks he has to vote Republican".

In-migration: People from outside the South didn't consider "Republican" a dirty word.

Urbanization: More urbanized Southern states turned red faster. Most likely correlated with economic development because urbanites are more liberal on social issues.

A successful 1980s economy under the Democrats might result in less regional migration, which would benefit Democrats in the South. The rising incomes would have a mixed result, with people having more to lose from higher taxes but also giving the Democrats credit for the economy.

For me it’s not a question of whether the south will become liberal but more of do southern democrats keep the majority conservative white demographic in the southern democrat sphere.

For example does Rick Perry switch to being a Republican with a successful democratic 80s? Who himself talks about Reagan’s successful presidency pushing him to switch in 1989. If he didn’t switch he’d still be the same conservative Rick Perry just with the democrat label not republican

 

[Don Corleone]

For me it’s not a question of whether the south will become liberal but more of do southern democrats keep the majority conservative white demographic in the southern democrat sphere.

For example does Rick Perry switch to being a Republican with a successful democratic 80s? Who himself talks about Reagan’s successful presidency pushing him to switch in 1989. If he didn’t switch he’d still be the same conservative Rick Perry just with the democrat label not republican

To some extent.

He'd adopt standard D positions on some issues where he didn't have strong feelings, as opposed to standard R positions in OTL. Going along to get along.

Unless he's passionate about his position on every issue.

 

[CountDVB]

In OTL, the three factors that made states redder:

Rising incomes: Dixiecrats bitterly complained that "if you put $100 in a man's pocket all of a sudden he thinks he has to vote Republican".

In-migration: People from outside the South didn't consider "Republican" a dirty word.

Urbanization: More urbanized Southern states turned red faster. Most likely correlated with economic development because urbanites are more liberal on social issues.

A successful 1980s economy under the Democrats might result in less regional migration, which would benefit Democrats in the South. The rising incomes would have a mixed result, with people having more to lose from higher taxes but also giving the Democrats credit for the economy.

Yes and no. While I am unsure of the "migration" aspect, rising incomes is conditional. It wasn't just that incomes were rising for people but that the belief that Republican economic policy was the cause behind these growing incomes or at least a factor, which is what led to the adoption of supply-side economics. However, if incomes rise while the Democrats hold the charge and while pressing reforms, then people will associate the Democrats' financial policies (which here would be some sort of updated Keynesian thing with ideas from the 1960s considered) as beneficial to their income and their growth.

I don't know about the in-migration, but I do point out that the urbanization ties in with the rising incomes thing and would this influence that. I don't think taxes would be higher for most people, only for the extensively well-off along with new taxes like capital gains so we don't get the massive wealth gap we have OTL.