How could Patrice Lumumba survive?

[Vinization]

The first prime minister of an independent Congo (Kinshasa), Patrice Lumumba's short tenure was wracked by turmoil, with a mutiny by the army, an attempt by the mineral-rich state of Katanga to secede, and very hostile relations with his country's former overlord, Belgium. To make matters worse for him, the US didn't help him in his efforts to maintain power and keep Congo together, and instead turned against him when he inevitably turned to the Soviets for aid. In the end, he was overthrown and executed after trying to escape, and the Congolese government was eventually taken over by Mobutu Sese Seko, whose corruption was the stuff of legend.

So, was there any way Lumumba could've stayed in power? Maybe if the US government was more supportive of him, perhaps? They forced Britain and France to back down during the Suez Crisis, after all.

 

[Questerr]

Spetsnaz bodyguards would be a good start.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

 

[The Oncoming Storm]

Given the multitude of problems faced it’s difficult to see how Congo could have held together without violence of some level. From what I’ve read about Lumumba for all his undoubted charisma I doubt he would have had the ability to hold it all together, but it’s difficult to think of anyone who could have. Perhaps if Baudouin had been more circumspect in his Independence Day speech then in turn Lumumba doesn’t give his famous riposte which allowed the Western press to portray him as an extremist then the Americans mightn’t be so hostile. Or if Emil Janssens also chose his words more carefully then the Force Publique mightn’t have mutinied.

That might have given the government more time to establish itself and to start implementing its policies. However I think some major crisis is inevitable, Lumumba might have been in a stronger position though and could have retained power but I think we would have become increasingly dictatorial but with nothing like the megalomania of Mobutu.

 

[Vinization]

Or if Emil Janssens also chose his words more carefully then the Force Publique mightn’t have mutinied.

I'm leaning towards using that as a POD, since from what I know the mutiny was the point from where things started to go off the rails. Perhaps Janssens could be dismissed in favor of someone who isn't so much of a hardliner when it comes to changes in the army, but I have no idea who could take his place. Congo would be in for a rough first few years of independence anyway, but it may just avoid the worst of the crisis - Katanga might still secede at some point, but if Lumumba stays in power the Free Republic of the Congo won't exist.

I think he would have become increasingly dictatorial but with nothing like the megalomania of Mobutu.

I agree that Lumumba would've almost certainly become a dictator at some point, albeit one less awful than Mobutu - not exactly a high bar to clear.

 

[Vinization]

I wonder if Lumumba could dismiss Janssens before the mutiny happens? @The Oncoming Storm

 

[The Oncoming Storm]

I don’t know enough to say, he probably could have but it would run the risk of all the Belgian officers leaving and decapitating the force. The best case scenario is for a relatively quick Africanisation perhaps with some outsiders being retained as advisors. However there was so much impatience among the population that they mightn’t have been prepared to wait.

 

[Vinization]

The best case scenario is for a relatively quick Africanisation perhaps with some outsiders being retained as advisors.

Could the US provide some advisors, perhaps, if the speeches Baudouin and Lumumba give at independence day aren't so inflammatory? I'm sure things between Kinshasa and Brussels will still sour eventually, but a couple of weeks or months of "normal" relations might change stuff down the road.

 

[Ozpin]

Could the US provide some advisors, perhaps, if the speeches Baudouin and Lumumba give at independence day aren't so inflammatory? I'm sure things between Kinshasa and Brussels will still sour eventually, but a couple of weeks or months of "normal" relations might change stuff down the road.

Weren't the Belgians painting Lumumba as a communist and the Americans believed the Belgians.

 

[French Frog]

Or the other way around ? Whatever....at that point he's a goner as long as there are ambitious and unscrupulous people around him.If that's not the case then he could last

 

[Ozpin]

Or the other way around ? Whatever....at that point he's a goner as long as there are ambitious and unscrupulous people around him.If that's not the case then he could last

He definitely would need to bring the army into line and crush Katanga before it could properly begin. Then he will have to have stay on alert, due to the CIA looking for a chance to get him "retired".

 

[French Frog]

Katanga 's the problem .Belgium wants to keep that or least have someone in their pocket who runs it...same for the US.So either patrice plays ball with them to some extent or the revolt kicks in with their support.





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