Assuming that China eventually turns into a massive North Korea (not impossible), what happens come 1997?
Hong Kong Under Un-reformed China
- Thread starter SAVORYapple
- Start date
If the RoC still claims mainland China, and Britain still recognizes it or it is independnet, Britain could extend their lease somehow.
If HK tries to go alone, or stay UK, the PRC *will* invade then, for sure. Or siege like I think Indonesia kinda did to Singapour...
The lease was up on Hong Kong and Britain didn't have the means to hold her even then (not to mention we gave up on HK for the same reason in the second world war).
We'd hand over HK and watch the local economy implode as China drains the remaining wealth. Before hand-over, there would have been a massive brain-drain. In OTL, many HK citizens with UK or other passports snapped up property abroad to escape to out of concern over China (pretty unfounded to some extent). With an unreformed China, I can see many leaving.
We'd hand over HK and watch the local economy implode as China drains the remaining wealth. Before hand-over, there would have been a massive brain-drain. In OTL, many HK citizens with UK or other passports snapped up property abroad to escape to out of concern over China (pretty unfounded to some extent). With an unreformed China, I can see many leaving.
Alex Richards
Donor
Well, theoretically we're probably looking at a situation in which PRChina is never recognised as the legitimate government of China, leading to Hong Kong either being kept or given to Taiwan, both with American backing. China may still steamroll Hong Kong anyway, but it's going to be a much worse PR situation for them, and likely even Russia is going to object in case the government turns their attention to the Trans-Amur.
More interestingly, if Hong Kong is returned and then we see over the next year a complete collapse of the economy and crushing of democracy, then we could see some interesting effects on UK politics. Thatcher is likely to try and keep the territory, but Major probably ends up sorting things out in backroom deals. However, Blair will still be the one actually handing it over, and I doubt the ceremony will involve a representative of the Monarchy given the more strained situation. Blair could get a backlash here.
Of course, that's assuming that we even have a PM Blair and so forth with the different interenational scene.
More interestingly, if Hong Kong is returned and then we see over the next year a complete collapse of the economy and crushing of democracy, then we could see some interesting effects on UK politics. Thatcher is likely to try and keep the territory, but Major probably ends up sorting things out in backroom deals. However, Blair will still be the one actually handing it over, and I doubt the ceremony will involve a representative of the Monarchy given the more strained situation. Blair could get a backlash here.
Of course, that's assuming that we even have a PM Blair and so forth with the different interenational scene.
Thande
Donor
Technically according to the treaty the UK doesn't have to return Hong Kong, just the New Territories.
David Owen also mentioned in his book that he thought it would be possible to negotiate for Hong Kong to be transferred to Chinese sovereignty, but still remain under British administration. I don't know if he was being too naive with this though, or just using it as a stick to beat Thatcher with as he liked to accuse her of being inept with foreign policy.
If the UK can't fudge it so Hong Kong remains British inevitability, there could perhaps be an FU where it either gets given to Taiwan or made independent, with some justification about there "being no legitimate Chinese government to return it to". Of course the problem is that the idea of China being North Korea writ large changes things to start with, i.e. has the UN and the UK shifted recognition back to Taiwan as the legitimate Chinese government, the economic considerations, etc...
David Owen also mentioned in his book that he thought it would be possible to negotiate for Hong Kong to be transferred to Chinese sovereignty, but still remain under British administration. I don't know if he was being too naive with this though, or just using it as a stick to beat Thatcher with as he liked to accuse her of being inept with foreign policy.
If the UK can't fudge it so Hong Kong remains British inevitability, there could perhaps be an FU where it either gets given to Taiwan or made independent, with some justification about there "being no legitimate Chinese government to return it to". Of course the problem is that the idea of China being North Korea writ large changes things to start with, i.e. has the UN and the UK shifted recognition back to Taiwan as the legitimate Chinese government, the economic considerations, etc...
King Helü of Wu
Banned
My opinion is just the opposite of you guys'.
The only reason for cities like Hong Kong and Macau to exist is the inefficiency of China and its economy.
The more inefficient China's economy gets, the more they would need Hong Kong, in the 1970s China was totally dependent on HK and Singapore as export market to balance their huge trade deficit with Japan for importing machinaries and hi-tech products.
So if China goes North Korea, Hong Kong would have a huge advantage either as a British colony or as an SAR.
In contrary, if Chiang was still in charge, Hong Kong might become just like any other city in China, being conquered by Chiang somewhere around the 1960s, after India conquered Portugese Goa.
The only reason for cities like Hong Kong and Macau to exist is the inefficiency of China and its economy.
The more inefficient China's economy gets, the more they would need Hong Kong, in the 1970s China was totally dependent on HK and Singapore as export market to balance their huge trade deficit with Japan for importing machinaries and hi-tech products.
So if China goes North Korea, Hong Kong would have a huge advantage either as a British colony or as an SAR.
In contrary, if Chiang was still in charge, Hong Kong might become just like any other city in China, being conquered by Chiang somewhere around the 1960s, after India conquered Portugese Goa.
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Although, HK proper gets its water from the New Territories, and they had the majority of the population by then, no? Also things like food. Everything I've read is that the islands would be very, VERY difficult to support without the NT. So, there's little practical difference.
There were a LOT of Hong Kong people who took out Canadian citizenship, some of whom moved back to Hong Kong when it turned out not to have been a disaster. If China is in full Mao mode, or worse NK, then, as you say, even more people would have fled to Canada, the UK or wherever they could go. The UK might have been more willing to take more. OTL's "UK passport" doesn't mean you can live in the UK was ... absolutely reprehensible. Even if it was a political necessity.
I've always liked the idea of negotiating with Taiwan instead of the mainland as a theoretical solution. Here it might, just might, work. Yes, the Brits would likely have to back it up with a believable nuclear threat.
Not, mind you, that there WAS a lot of democracy there, up to the last few years, when Britain had to make China look bad. OK, maybe that's not quite fair, but that's sure what it looked like.
If Britain had given Hong Kongers full democracy and rights in the 60s, say, they'd have had a lot better leg to stand on, morally.