Hochelaga-wank: plausibility check

telynk

So, I'm working out ideas for a new timeline to do, and as much of my interest is centred around the history of what is now Eastern Canada in the age of exploration and early colonial period, I'm thinking of what would have happened if the St. Lawrence Iroquoians had survived and prospered as allies of the French.

For those who don't know the St. Lawrence Iroquoians were the inhabitants of the St. Lawrence river valley at the time of Jacques Cartier's voyages. Their pre-contact population was estimated at 120,000. While this doesn't sound like much, it is a lot compared to the Haudensaunee Iroquois Confederacy who at the "height of their power" in the 18th century had a population of only 12,000. If they can keep losses due to disease down to 50%, they come out of the early contact era and into the fur trade era with significantly more population than their neighbours.

The other reason I'm particularly interested in the St. Lawrence Iroquoians is because they controlled a fairly large (for the time period and region - it had a population of about 3,000 when Cartier visited) settlement at Hochelaga (site of present-day Montreal), which is an EXTREMELY important strategic location to control trade with the Great Lakes region. I'm thinking that if the St. Lawrence Iroquoians in Hochelaga are able to get themselves in a position to act as middlemen in the fur trade between the French and the interior nations, they could stand to become fairly rich and powerful (again, here I'm meaning rich in comparison with their neighbours, not in comparison with Europe).

My goal would be for the St. Lawrence Iroquoains to be at least as powerful as the Haudensaunee Confederacy was OTL, and ideally more powerful. I don't think colonization is avoidable, and I don't think any indigenous state can remain in political power in North America after the 18th century, but I'm interested in the possibility of their being a lasting cultural/linguistic/demographic influence of a strong native state centred at Hochelaga. Maybe a colonial state centred at Hochelaga which is a successor to the St. Lawrence Iroquoian state the way that Mexico is a successor to the Aztec Empire.

Anyways, I'll be posting my thoughts on this potential TL here as I come up with them. This TL is intended to be a wank: I want to see how powerful a native state centred at Hochelaga can get, but I want to avoid ASB if at all possible. Any comments on my ideas would be very welcome!
 

telynk

Demographics in the early contact period

Ideally, I'd like the St. Lawrence Iroquoian state to have a population of at least a million or two by 1750. Without a fairly large population, I think such a state would have a hard time having lasting cultural/linguistic/demographic influence, but I'm not sure how possible it is. The Haudenosaunee confederacy at around the same time had only 12 000 people. Here are some thoughts I have as to how such a population could be acheivable:

1) European contact starting around 1550 which would provide the ideas necessary to transition quickly from a semi-agricultural to a fully settled culture capable of forming cities

2) Avoiding the demographic collapse due to disease which would come with European contact. Obviously, disease will have a huge death toll, but if I can keep it down to 50% then it is possible for the population to recover within a generation.

3) Religious pressure to maintain high fertility rates, much the way it was in OTL colonial Quebec. IOTL a population of around 2600 Quebec colonists in 1700 grew to around seven million in the present day. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Quebec

I'm thinking about ways to have all three of these things happen....
 

Ganesha

telynk said:
1) European contact starting around 1550 which would provide the ideas necessary to transition quickly from a semi-agricultural to a fully settled culture capable of forming cities
Click to expand...

Contact coming from who? The English? They're going to need to move much more quickly than OTL, and that's a complex thing to do. The Spanish - they'll need a reason to penetrate that far up the coast and thereby piss off the English and French.

The French are most likely, but even then it's early.

And just contact won't necessarily cause a shift in the way they live - it didn't in OTL for the Haudenosaunee, after all. I think the main thing is population density - that will force the creation of both more effective agriculture and larger cities. Population growth is the key, and in OTL the exact opposite happened due to disease and warfare.

telynk said:
2) Avoiding the demographic collapse due to disease which would come with European contact. Obviously, disease will have a huge death toll, but if I can keep it down to 50% then it is possible for the population to recover within a generation.
Click to expand...

How would this happen? This is the toughest one by far. Biologically, a virgin population exposed to a number of new virulent diseases is going to have catastrophic die off. What are your thoughts?

telynk said:
3) Religious pressure to maintain high fertility rates, much the way it was in OTL colonial Quebec. IOTL a population of around 2600 Quebec colonists in 1700 grew to around seven million in the present day. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Quebec
Click to expand...

Pressure from what religion? What were the basics of the St. Lawrence Iroquoian faith? Are you thinking conversion to Catholicism?

And Quebec may have seven million today, but that population growth largely happened in the 20th century (like the world generally). In 1900, Quebec had only 1.6 million people.

This is a really interesting concept and it's clear you've done a lot of thinking on it. I'm looking forward to seeing what you come up with! :)

Cheers,
Ganesha
 

0100010

I am interested in what you find in your research for this group and time period. AFAIK however, the only actual evidence for Hochelaga was Carter's log, which may have been exaggerated. No archeological evidence was found, and site in nearby places had an entirely different village layout than what he had described. If you have found other info though, please link it here.

I am interested in what you find out because this area will be involved in a story/TL I am currently working on (but it is in ASB, see my sig)
 

telynk

Thanks for the quick reply, Ganesha! I'm really happy to have someone to bounce ideas off of...

Ganesha said:
Contact coming from who? The English? They're going to need to move much more quickly than OTL, and that's a complex thing to do. The Spanish - they'll need a reason to penetrate that far up the coast and thereby piss off the English and French.

The French are most likely, but even then it's early.

And just contact won't necessarily cause a shift in the way they live - it didn't in OTL for the Haudenosaunee, after all. I think the main thing is population density - that will force the creation of both more effective agriculture and larger cities. Population growth is the key, and in OTL the exact opposite happened due to disease and warfare.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was definitely thinking the French. Cartier made contact and, just after his third voyage, Roberval tried to set up a settlement near present-day Quebec City. The problem was that neither Cartier nor Roberval treated the natives very well so the settlements were abandoned largely due to a hostile native presence. I'm thinking my POD might be someone other than Roberval put in charge of the colonization effort who would be more inclined to work WITH rather than AGAINST the natives...

Ganesha said:
How would this happen? This is the toughest one by far. Biologically, a virgin population exposed to a number of new virulent diseases is going to have catastrophic die off. What are your thoughts?

Pressure from what religion? What were the basics of the St. Lawrence Iroquoian faith? Are you thinking conversion to Catholicism?
Click to expand...

My answer to these questions is connected. I've read somewhere (will try to find the article again if I work more on this) that one of the reasons that death rates were so high was that, since everyone was sick at the same time, there was no one to feed, care for, etc. the sick while they were recovering. I'm thinking that conversion to Catholicism will happen early, and the missionaries, who I assuming will have some immunity to most diseases, will take care of large numbers of the sick as part of their missionary activity. If the missionaries can spread at the same speed as the diseases, I feel that the death rate could be dramatically reduced.... But, even if there is medical care through missionaries, feeding everyone in a culture with little agriculture and probably even less stored food, will be difficult....

Ganesha said:
And Quebec may have seven million today, but that population growth largely happened in the 20th century (like the world generally). In 1900, Quebec had only 1.6 million people.
Click to expand...

Good point. I forgot at home much population growth there has been in the 20th century. This means that a million or two by 1800 is more than I would actually need to be a significant force going into the 20th century. A million or two by 1900 would be enough... I'm thinking if they had a cultural/linguistic/demographic significance equivalent to OTL Quebec that would be enough for my purposes...
 

telynk

0100010 said:
I am interested in what you find in your research for this group and time period. AFAIK however, the only actual evidence for Hochelaga was Carter's log, which may have been exaggerated. No archeological evidence was found, and site in nearby places had an entirely different village layout than what he had described. If you have found other info though, please link it here.
Click to expand...

Sadly, I don't have any other info. I'm going on the assumption that Cartier's report is accurate, which is definitely a shaky assumption as, as far as I can tell, there aren't any corroborating sources (everything else I've found which gives a population figure for Hochelaga cite's Cartier's log as the source).

At one point last year, the wikipedia article actually gave a figure of 30 000 for the population of Hochelaga, but since that's more recently been changed to 3 000 I'm guessing that was a typo.
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

One of the problems that all the Iroquoins had was clothing. They could grow as much food as they needed, but they had to hunt for hides for clothing. Obviously, they ate the meat, but clothing may well have been the limiting factor on population density. If the French can introduce cattle, sheep and horses, theyll have a strong advantage.
 

telynk

Dathi THorfinnsson said:
One of the problems that all the Iroquoins had was clothing. They could grow as much food as they needed, but they had to hunt for hides for clothing. Obviously, they ate the meat, but clothing may well have been the limiting factor on population density. If the French can introduce cattle, sheep and horses, theyll have a strong advantage.
Click to expand...

That's interesting. Another factor I've been reading about which was preventing the creation of permanent towns and cities was lack of fertilizer. Having livestock would help with that problem too...
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

telynk said:
That's interesting. Another factor I've been reading about which was preventing the creation of permanent towns and cities was lack of fertilizer. Having livestock would help with that problem too...
Click to expand...
True, true. But their towns lasted 10-20 years, which is close enough to 'permanent' for many purposes.

But yes, manuring fields would have helped. A lot.
 

telynk

Thoughts on a POD

Ok, here's my thoughts as to how I might get this TL started...

1) Have the POD occur between Cartier's second (1535-1536) and third (1541-1542) voyages. At the end of his second voyage, Cartier brought Chief Donnacona (from Stadacona: present-day Quebec City) to France to tell the King of France of the "golden Kingdom of the Saguenay" which was the impetus for Cartier's third expedition and Roberval's colonization attempt. IOTL, Donnacona died in France, and it seems that some of the conflict between Cartier and the Stadaconans during his third voyage were due to the fact that Cartier took Donnacona away and didn't bring him back. So I'm thinking that Chief Donnacona lives long enough to return to "Canada" with Cartier during his third expedition.

2) I'm assuming that the reason that Donnacona die OTL was due to exposure to European diseases (I have not yet found a source which gives a cause of death). Let's suppose that Donnacona gets sick but recovers while under care in a Catholic hospital. Pressure from the nuns at the hospital leads Donnacona to convert on what he thinks is his deathbed, and he attributes his survival to divine intervention. This would be the POD and I'm hoping that conversion of an influential chief such as Donnacona would lead to a more successful missionary activity and thus better treatment of the natives by the French down the line....

3) IOTL, Roberval was put in charge of the colonization attempt which was supposed to accompany Cartier's third expedition, but left a year late. It seems that, IOTL, the relations with the Stadaconans turned sour shortly after Cartier arrived without Donnacona. ITTL, I'm planning to have Cartier, Donnacona, and the expedition leader (I'm thinking butterflies from Donnacona's survival will affect the choice of some other courtier instead of Roberval) arrive together, and have the new expedition leader be better at establishing friendly relations with the Stadaconans than Roberval was.

4) The settlement project will proceed at Stadacona while Cartier, the expedition leaders and others will travel in search of the "Kingdom of the Saguenay". As the gold and diamonds that this expedition was looking for don't really exist, I expect that after a few years, Cartier and the expedition leader will return home. However, I'm planning that better relations with the Stadaconans will mean that at least some of the expedition members will take native wives, and will stick around when Cartier and the expedition leader return home. The livestock will also be left behind with the remaining expedition members.

5) With Chief Donnacona having converted, the Stadaconans will eventually convert to Catholicism, and Stadacona will be a centre for missionary activity, which will continue for the next 50 years until a permanent French settlement comes at the beginning of the 17th century. During this 50 years, trade will continue between Stadacona and France, and at least one wave of disease will pass. The presence of disease resistance in the French expedition members will mean that someone is around to feed and care for the sick in Stadacona, and the death toll in Stadacona will be lower than in other native communities. Disease resistance will then be present it at least some of the next generation due to childhood exposure. The influence of the French expedition members on the Stadacona settlement will mean that European-style farming will be practiced, and the remaining livestock from the 1540s expedition will be bred and kept around, and their manure will be used for fertilizer.
 

telynk

Status of Hochelaga 1550-1600

IOTL, the settlement at Hochelaga (at all other known St. Lawrence Iroquoian settlements) disappeared some time between 1550 and 1600 (between Cartier's last voyage and Champlain's first voyage). We don't know what happened during that time: there are a whole bunch of theories circulating, but I'm assuming that for the purposes of this TL, whatever happened has been butterflied.

One thing I would like to avoid is the inevitable abandonment of Hochelaga due to loss of soil fertility. At some point (probably in the 1550's), the Hochelagans will realize that their neighbours the Stadaconans are able to maintain better soil fertility than them due to the presence of livestock and their manure. Livestock will be brought from Stadacona to Hochelaga and manure will prove successful at restoring at least some fertility to the soil. This successful use of one European-derived farming technique will yield to more being imported from Stadacona.

At the same time, during the period from 1550 to 1600, I'm thinking that Hochelaga will have little to no direct contact with the French. The French will trade with Stadacona which will in turn trade with Hochelaga. This will insulate Hochelaga from the effects of disease to a certain extent as disease outbreaks in Stadacona will only be brief following the arrival of a trading ship with an infected crew member, and those who are sick due to such brief outbreaks will not go on trading trips to Stadacona. At the same time, their will be missionaries arriving in Hochleaga during this period (and some will proceed even farther inland). Some missionaries will have come all the way from France while others will be Métis from Stadacona.

So, during this time, due to the introduction of European-derived farming techniques and livestock, Hochelaga will grow, and will become a centre for trade of French-derived goods into the interior. Soon Hochelaga will have a food surplus , and granaries will be constructed. The presence of these granaries, together with the presence of a population of French and Métis missionaries who have disease immunity will mean that Hochelaga will have a much lower death rate when the first disease epidemic hits around 1600.

One thing that is key here for preventing a disease outbreak before 1600 is lack of direct trade between France and Hochelaga. I'm thinking this is reasonable as French ships won't need to sail any farther than Stadacona to get access to the furs they will be trading for, at least not until intensive fur trading leads to depletion of more readily available sources of furs. Also, there are gold placer deposits in the Chaudiere valley, which could be conceivably be collected by the Stadaconans (or by residents of a closer settlement) for trade with the French. Also, I'm thinking that due to their Métis descent, Stadacona will have a large number of residents who speak both French and their native language, and Hochelaga will not yet have nearly as many French-speakers. However, at some point traders will realize that they can get better deals if they sail upriver to Hochelaga. The question is really whether I can reasonably postpone that until 1600...
 

telynk

Any other comments? I've seen enough interest that I think I want to start actually writing this up, but any comments would be welcome.
 

telynk

Ok, I feel that I've convinced myself at least that this idea is plausible and interesting. I'm going to take some time to work out a sketch of the timeline, and the first few posts, and then I'll start posting it: probably in a new thread. I'm not sure when it will be ready, but hopefully soon...
 

Unknown

If you do start a TL, try to take it to the present day.

I'd love to see the impact of that.

It could be like Male Rising (read that someday. The developments in that TL are interesting.).
 
Last edited:

telynk

Unknown said:
If you do start a TL, try to take it to the present day.

I'd love to see the impact of that.

It could be like Male Rising (read that someday. The developments in that TL are interesting.).
Click to expand...

I'm actually currently reading Malê Rising. It is good, very good. I don't think I can live up to it, sadly. I will do my best to take this to the present day, but I think keeping track of what's going in more than one small region of the world is beyond my abilities....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top