WI the OSS gave their full support to Ho and the US helped Vietnam achieve their independence after WWII?
The POD would have to be that Ho Chi Minh does not become a Communist.
The POD would have to be that Ho Chi Minh does not become a Communist.
Ho Chi Minh turned to the USSR when he could not get support from the US. Provide that support and kiss good bye to him turning Communst.
Ho Chi Minh turned to the USSR when he could not get support from the US. Provide that support and kiss good bye to him turning Communst.
Quite. A Communist Vietnam need not be pro-Soviet; especially if the Communists still win the Chinese Civil War. Just like the OTL Sino-Soviet split, Vietnam will want a protector against China; if Mao as OTL initially aligns with Stalin, Ho will likely be much more willing to be US-aligned.Guys, you seem to assume ideological commitments are destined to trump practical statecraft. That's not how the world works, and a cursory reading of Cold War history will dispel any suggestion otherwise. Despite its socialism, Yugoslavia functioned as a perfectly reliable Western partner for a near half-century. Hell, if Mao Tse-tung, of all people, was capable of a pivot to the Americans, there's no reason Uncle Ho couldn't pull it off.
WI the OSS gave their full support to Ho and the US helped Vietnam achieve their independence after WWII?
The issue with this setup is that a viable French state, no matter how impetuous, is always going to prove a more attractive proposition to U.S. policymakers, especially with the onset of the Cold War, which rendered the task of maintaining some visage of a united European front a very pertinent one. The Viet Minh could be kicking ass and scoring weekly Dien Bien Phus against French forces - in the eyes of the OSS, it really doesn't matter, because, at the end of the day, Ho's just the leader of a bunch of zipperheads running around a jungle (and commie zipperheads, in that).Quite. A Communist Vietnam need not be pro-Soviet; especially if the Communists still win the Chinese Civil War. Just like the OTL Sino-Soviet split, Vietnam will want a protector against China; if Mao as OTL initially aligns with Stalin, Ho will likely be much more willing to be US-aligned.
The bigger problem is creating conditions where the US being willing to side with the Vietminh against the French. Possibly a scenario where less crazy French leaders allow the Ho-Sainteny agreement to stand, rather than immediately rejecting it? Although I can still see the French and Vietnamese coming to blows.
Perhaps the Americans may stations naval forces just off the Vietnam-China border, to "prevent" foreign interference on what is an internal matter, while also showing that the US will prevent the Maoists in China from taking advantage of the situation.
Ho Chi Minh turned to the USSR when he could not get support from the US. Provide that support and kiss good bye to him turning Communst.
We may be able to reign in the Communist beliefs with beliefs in democracy - Nelson Mandela had similar socialist personal beliefs, but was willing to put them aside to focus on greater political reform and integrating South Africa into the global economy.
As noted elsewhere, Ho had been a Communist since 1920, and spent many years in Moscow working for Stalin's Comintern.So with US-support, we may see Ho Chi Minh as a staunch Republican, if a tad pinkish.
As noted elsewhere, Ho had been a Communist since 1920, and spent many years in Moscow working for Stalin's Comintern.
I would also note that the first act of Ho's government in 1954 was to decree the execution of 2% of the population (about 200,000 people) as class enemies. This was a literal quota. Millions of people had fled to the south in 1954, including priests and other Catholics, landowners, former employees of the colonial government, and so on. So there weren't a lot of "class enemies" left in the north. Local party cadres reported that they had liquidated those remaining, but didn't meet the quota. They were ordered to find more victims. This led to victims being chosen at random, and to people denouncing neighbors to settle grudges or divert the fickle finger of death. The campaign was called off after 120,000 people were killed.
This was not the act of a Jeffersonian democrat or a pinkish Republican.
In 1925, Phan arrived in Shanghai on what he thought was a short trip on behalf of his movement. He was to meet with Ho Chi Minh, who at that time used the name, Ly Thuy, one of Ho's many aliases. Ho had invited Chau to come to Canton to discuss matters of common interest. Ho was in Canton at the Soviet Embassy, purportedly as a Soviet citizen working as an secretary, translator and interpreter. In exchange for money, Ho informed the French police of Chau's imminent arrival. Chau was arrested by French agents and transported back to Hanoi.[39] [40][41][42]