Hitler Dies in 1923...Most Likely Outcome for Germany

[Marius Mazzini]

Assume Adolf Hitler was killed during the Beer Hall Putsch of 1923. What would be the most likely outcome of how German would evolve politically assuming the Great Depression happens on schedule?

 

[Marius Mazzini]

Bumped

 

[Enigmajones]

My timeline has this as its base POD. I'll post the link.

Dead By Dawn: The Road To Revolution

Hi, I've finished much of my Timeline, Dead By Dawn, and it can be discussed here. The Rise of National Socialism[/SIZE] Arguably, the first step on the road to the German Revolution, was the failure of the Beer Hall Putsch. Although it often believed to have begun in September of 1919...

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[Garrison]

Hitler's death wouldn't impact the Great Depression and the establishment and big business will go looking for some authoritarian figurehead they think they can use and they will have the support of what passes for the German army so expect the Communists to be put down hard. Still whoever emerges is extremely unlikely to be able to turn the tables the way Hitler did so much more likely to turn out like Franco's Spain than Mussolini's Italy. Something like the remilitarization of the Rhineland are still likely, but I doubt any other German leader will be as recklessly ambitious as Hitler.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

Agreed. Probably a more conservative Nationalist like Edgar Jung or Herbert von Bose would have eventually come to the fore. Gregor Strasser was probably a bit too left wing for the Reichswehr. I can see the Anschluss going ahead, probably a significant majority of Austrians were genuinely in favour and British and French public opinion not beimg prepared to support a war over it, but no Sudeten or Polish corridor. Danzig and the Saar would have returned to the German fold as OTL and probably the Memelland as the USSR became more threatening and Lithuania sought German friendship.

 

[brunohusker]

I think by this point, German nationalists will find someone else to rally around. Not sure who. The Nazi party itself might not survive but it’s ideas will live in some form sadly.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

When the Depression hits, German voters will break away from the more traditional parties to more radical factions.

Here are the OTL swings from May 1928 to July 1932

KPD ................................. 11% .... 15%
Social Democrats ....... 30% .... 22%
Zentrum ......................... 12% .... 12%
DDP, DVP, RDM ......... 18% .... ---
DNVP .............................. 14% ...... 7%
NSDAP .............................. 3% ... 37%
Others .............................. 12% ..... 7%

IMO, the NSDAP would split. The "left" (Strasserite) NSDAP would have 6-8%, the "right" NSDAP (Goering) would have 4-6%, another "right" NSDAP would have 4-6%, the KPD would have 20% (including 5% of OTL NSDAP), another 5% of NSDAP would go to very minor parties, and the remaining 7-13% of OTL NSDAP would be scattered among the DDP, DVP, RDM, and DNVP.

A left-center coalition of the SPD, Zentrum, other minor parties, and maybe the DDP could rule. So Weimar staggers on.

Unless... Röhm and Strasser are able to recruit a very large Sturmabteilung as OTL, and seize power in a street revolution?