If Operation Valkyrie ended with Hitler dead, but the plotters defeated who would become the next German leader?
Hitler dies during Valkyrie: Who Succeeds Him?
- Thread starter Napoleon IV
- Start date
I think Heinrich Himmler would. For a few months at most and then the Nazi collapse. Himmler had the strongest power base, Heer would be thoroughly discredited and Goering an addict...
It would probably be Himmler, with SS backing of course... We'd probably see a civil war though, with the SS and the Nazi-Loyal army beating Stauffenberg, Rommel and the old school Prussian Militarists... I reckon the Nazis would win... Just in time for the Wallies and Soviets to roll right over them.
Would you say it'd end up like Fox on the Rhine? Because I would be okay with that.
Rommel is not going be taking orders from Himmler and leading the Battle of the Bulge in the winter if that is what you are wondering.
The war is going to end alot quicker then that.
I image once he gets back with his troops which he would manage to force himself to do after Hitler dies even with the head injury you are going to have an attempt at a Lee at Appomattox moment as the Marshals in the West had a fear of Hitler's aura with with their troops not Himmler's. The divisions aren't going to respond to Himmler's commands, not even the Waffen SS divisions in France will obey him over the Marshals in the area.
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Himmler would simultaneously be in the best and worst position to take over as Fuhrer of Germany in the event of Hitler's death. Himmler would have the backing of the SS, but the suspicion that he himself arranged for Hitler's death would give power to the true architects like Stauffenberg or Beck's faction of the Wehrmacht. Rommel and the Prussian militarists would actually side with Beck's faction as they greatly despised the SS and thus would not accept a Fuhrer Himmler's rule.
Eisenhower
Logically:
1. The rebels & nazis start fighting.
2. Neither side wants the Red Army any closer, so the Wehrmacht in the east stall has some supplies & other support delivered. Resistance to the RKKA is perhaps not as stiff as OTL but still effective through the summer.
3. Rommel attempts a cease fire in the west. The general idea of partial surrender to the western Allies is rejected, but the resistance of the German 7th & 15th Armies collapses in July similar to OTL. Without the insistance on die hard resistance in the west few if any stay behind garrisons hold out, handing over most or all the ports to Eisenhowers forces.
4. Whichever group wins in Germany the damage to the Wehrmacht in the west is irrepairable & despite transportation problems for supplies the Allied armies reach the Rhine in September & swiftly cross it at several points by early October. Assisting the west Allies
5. Morale is collapsing in Germany & to 'save' Germany any remaining combat power is sent east to slow the Red Army.
6. As winter approaches the Ruhr is cut off & the German railways collapse as the Allied armies roll over central Germany. If there is any appropriate weather in the late autum Operation Eclipse is executed as two Allied Army Groups close on Berlin on paralle axis. The 6th Army Group screens southern Germany & prepares for follow up ops towards Prague & Vienna.
7.If Berlin is captured or not by December the German armies on all fronts are falling apart. Mass surrender by local commanders becomes common & offcial surrender by a German government is largely a irrelevant formality.
Effectively at the end of the year Ike is the boss in Germany until some sort of Joint Allied occupation government is set up.
Logically:
1. The rebels & nazis start fighting.
2. Neither side wants the Red Army any closer, so the Wehrmacht in the east stall has some supplies & other support delivered. Resistance to the RKKA is perhaps not as stiff as OTL but still effective through the summer.
3. Rommel attempts a cease fire in the west. The general idea of partial surrender to the western Allies is rejected, but the resistance of the German 7th & 15th Armies collapses in July similar to OTL. Without the insistance on die hard resistance in the west few if any stay behind garrisons hold out, handing over most or all the ports to Eisenhowers forces.
4. Whichever group wins in Germany the damage to the Wehrmacht in the west is irrepairable & despite transportation problems for supplies the Allied armies reach the Rhine in September & swiftly cross it at several points by early October. Assisting the west Allies
5. Morale is collapsing in Germany & to 'save' Germany any remaining combat power is sent east to slow the Red Army.
6. As winter approaches the Ruhr is cut off & the German railways collapse as the Allied armies roll over central Germany. If there is any appropriate weather in the late autum Operation Eclipse is executed as two Allied Army Groups close on Berlin on paralle axis. The 6th Army Group screens southern Germany & prepares for follow up ops towards Prague & Vienna.
7.If Berlin is captured or not by December the German armies on all fronts are falling apart. Mass surrender by local commanders becomes common & offcial surrender by a German government is largely a irrelevant formality.
Effectively at the end of the year Ike is the boss in Germany until some sort of Joint Allied occupation government is set up.
GarrySam
Banned
Himmler never had the backing of the Waffen SS , most of the higher ranking officers ( Deitrich , Steiner and Hauser) hated his guts.
One option that hasn't been considered is a Anglo-American split on accepting a German battlefield surrender in the West. Rommel and Monty start passing notes via troops carrying white flags to each others side and Churchill sees this as Britain's way to become relevant again and effect the post war situation.
If Churchill and Monty accept the surrender of German troops in the West what is Ike or Washington supposed to say or do about it about it? There would be grumbling, but an election is coming up and FDR isn't stone stupid so the official response from them Washington would be 'good see we are winning the war, but the war isn't over yet'. Then comes very loud screams from Stalin, alot of paranoia with the potential for him doing something stupid in response.
Now that opens up some interesting political can of worms.
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Legally speaking, Goering is still Hitler's successor. But I think we all know he will only last about 5 minutes.
A plotter's defeat scenario means Rommel's fate is, at minimum, removed from command. At worse, he isn't even given the "suicide or execution" options he got IOTL. That renders it kind of impossible for Montgomery to try and negotiate a surrender with him, even before we get to the fact that there is no way Monty would be able to keep this kind of correspondence secret from SHAEF.
A plotter's defeat scenario means Rommel's fate is, at minimum, removed from command. At worse, he isn't even given the "suicide or execution" options he got IOTL. That renders it kind of impossible for Montgomery to try and negotiate a surrender with him, even before we get to the fact that there is no way Monty would be able to keep this kind of correspondence secret from SHAEF.
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Rush on to Berlin.
The Brits, that is Churchill does not have the army to dominate the situation. Even if he Commonwealth leaders, specifically Canada, blindly follow Churchill & Co. in this decision. If Churchill wants to take the British & Commonwealth armies out from under Eisenhowers command that does not prevent the French & US armies from marching on eastwards to the Oder River, Vienna, Prague, or even Berlin.
Another part of this is if Monty, Brooke, or the other members of the coalition government would accept the abbrogation of the Unconditional Surrender policy agreed to in january of 1943. If anyone has any evidence any or many of them disagreed with it I'd be interested in seeing it.
Within Britain as well. The idea of leaving 'Germany' intact & capable of fielding a viable military forces was anathema to many, Thus the general support for Roosevelts Unconditional Surrender policy. Churchill was at the end of his political power in 1944 & would have had trouble suppressing the opposition. It is possible the war coalition government ends months earlier
Deleted member 1487
Speaking of which wasn't out of commission due to the strafing? That was on the 17th and the assassination would be on the 20th, so he's out of any sort of command or ability to function. Plus he didn't want to participate in what he thought would be a civil war after the assassination.
It took awhile for them to piece together what happened and connect the dots between events in Paris and Berlin. I imagine the SS and others in Berlin will be more focused on immediate threats in Berlin and less what is going on in France for a few days.
Peter Tsouras makes a pretty good case for how communication could be kept private via released POWs with verbal messages for Monty eyes and ears only. Obviously, it would be up to if the officer/s released decided to go along with it or not.
This.
I picked 'Other' but to be fair it could be one of the options listed, though their power would be reduced to the extent that Guderian himself should be an option.
He was out of commission and just getting back on his feet by the 20th, but in a situation where Hitler is actually dead and intrigue striking Berlin he could be back to his troops in a day or two.
Von Kluge was long worried about an SS vs. Army war.
Rommel's view of it by the time we are talking about was that chaos in Berlin was a good thing as the war was lost, no terms would be had and wanted to exercise his own independent policy hence talking to divisional commanders even of the Waffen SS formations like Sepp Dietrich and asking him if it makes sense to still be fighting out here in France for the next several months while the Soviets take Germany? The answer was no, and Rommel told him to follow his orders even if they are countermanded by Berlin.
Do I think Rommel was leery of Hitler being killed in the run up to D-Day? Yah, because he believed if Germany would get any terms to guarantee the country doesn't get broken up, deindustrialized, etc. it would have to come from success at the beaches otherwise what is left of the war is just a race for which side the Soviets or WAllies takes more of Europe first.
As for the run up to the landings, the real question at that point is what it has a significant chance to do to the war effort.
Hitler is killed say May 5th 1944, there is turbulence in Berlin, politicians killing each other, troops demoralized badly in France, new leader comes to power and starts purging generals he fears aren't totally loyal to him. The WAllies enter France with German troops already totally demoralized and defeated. Germans look on the plotters after the war as having undermined any chance of Germany having a better peace.
So, no I don't think Rommel wanted that kind of political turbulence when he was awaiting the landings, but after they were successful then political turbulence is good in the very short term for a general executing his own policy.
Rommel and Guderian though had a good enough relationship that if Rommel is seeing from the hospital it look like he has Berlin in hand and is the new leader I don't think he would try to rush back to his own troops and instead rush back to Berlin and try to talk to him about the next military and political steps.
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Paul V McNutt
Banned
With all the infighting in the German military, he WAllies move much faster. After the German military collapses, the Soviets move very rapidly also. I see a VE Day in December 1944. Which means the Soviets declare war on Japan and attack Manchuria in March 1945. The WAllied European vets get to the Pacific in April 1945. Hirohito surrenders before the atomic bomb is dropped.