Heisenberg's Bomb - What would it take for Germany to get the bomb?

[Ace Venom]

This post is more of an attempt to hammer out fine details for a potential timeline that could evolve from Germany successfully obtaining the atomic bomb in late 1943 or early 1944. I realize that in order to be at least semi-plausible, Heisenberg would have to be fully behind the project and be able to convince Hitler that it is necessary for the defense of Germany to develop an atomic bomb very early in the war. There is also the problem with diversion of resources, as was seen in the Holocaust. If Germany diverts resources to developing an atomic bomb project, some resources that went to other areas will not be available. This fact is necessary to observe in order to avoid making this more implausible than it already seems and any potential Nazi Germany-wank.

Thus, I propose these ideas that should get worked into any timeline.

A) It is not necessary for Germany's program to support having expansive quantities of U-235 or Pu-239. Both have their problems, with one being uranium enrichment and for plutonium, the development of the implosion design. The other problem with plutonium was that it was discovered in 1941 and thus was kept secret due to the war. In order for Germany to have a working plutonium program, Werner Heisenberg's group would have to discover it independently of Glenn Seaborg's group.

B) Combining the civilian and military research groups is absolutely necessary. This may lead to the independent discovery of plutonium (see above). More importantly, it pools research capacity. Specific approaches are another matter entirely.

C) Germany was ahead in nuclear research at first, but the Manhattan Project pooled billions of dollars into catching up with Germany and surpassing them by a large margin. The Manhattan Project benefited greatly from the European brain drain. The fear of Germany developing the bomb was very real for the Allies, but any successful detonation on an enemy target by the Germans is certain to create massive panic and inevitably accelerate Allied research efforts.

D) Nazi Germany does not have to come out of WWII intact. However, the successful use of the atomic bomb at appropriate times, such as before the invasion of Normandy, may prolong or even stop the war in Europe. That's where your advice comes in.

So have at it. Criticism is most desired.

Edit: Crap. Posted this in the wrong forum. Please move.

 

[Alcuin]

I think the changes you'd need are not just about availability of fissionable materials but about the personnel involved.

1) You need Heisenberg to be really trying to build the Bomb rather than, as he later claimed, subtly sabotaging the effort. (Difficult because, according to Freeman Dyson in "Infinite in All Directions", an American agent with knowledge of nuclear physics audited a lecture by Heisenberg in Switzerland with specific instructions to kill him even at the expense of his own life if Heisenberg was on the right track)

2) Ilse Meitner needs to remain in Berlin and work for the Germans or failign that, she needs to continue to audit and correct Hahn's work by correspondience from Sweden. (Even more difficult, she was Jewish and Hahn was too envious of her superior ability to work with her in that way.)

3) Nils Bohr fails to escape to England and is forced to work for the Germans after Denmark is occupied.

Probably one of these would be enough. Superficially, I'd say Bohr was the most likely but that's mainly because I haven't read much about his character. It would probably also help if Klaus Fuchs was not a Communist and didn't escape to England.

 

[zoomar]

Unless you are imagining a PoD in Heisenburg's childhood, this needs to be moved to the after 1900 discussion.

 

[Max Sinister]

Thread moved.

Lise Meitner helping is ASB. About discovering plutonium - might be, but I'm no expert for the history of nuclear physics. Pooling resources would help, but Hitler wasn't into that - he had groups of scientists working parallel on the same objective, believing that the best would win. And forcing scientists to join the work wouldn't help either. Even Otto Hahn said "if Hitler gets a nuke thanks to my work, I'll kill myself!"

 

[Mike Stearns]

The only way the Nazis will get a nuke is if you change their attitude toward the Jews. Remember, Hitler had declared that E=MC2 was "Jew science" and therefore not to be used in German bomb work.

 

[Ace Venom]

1) You need Heisenberg to be really trying to build the Bomb rather than, as he later claimed, subtly sabotaging the effort. (Difficult because, according to Freeman Dyson in "Infinite in All Directions", an American agent with knowledge of nuclear physics audited a lecture by Heisenberg in Switzerland with specific instructions to kill him even at the expense of his own life if Heisenberg was on the right track)

That's something to keep in mind. Obviously the Allies have an interest in not letting the Germans have the bomb because the war could get really messy. It's speculated that Heisenberg did deliberately sabotage German efforts to get the bomb, but this scenario proposes that he is a bit more unscrupulous.

2) Ilse Meitner needs to remain in Berlin and work for the Germans or failign that, she needs to continue to audit and correct Hahn's work by correspondience from Sweden. (Even more difficult, she was Jewish and Hahn was too envious of her superior ability to work with her in that way.)

ASB territory. The premise of this thread alone already approaches that.

3) Nils Bohr fails to escape to England and is forced to work for the Germans after Denmark is occupied.

From what I remember reading, Bohr remained in Denmark until 1941. Heisenberg had a meeting with Bohr, with whom he collaborated in the past. Bohr certainly would not have been interested in working for the Nazis and Heisenberg certainly would not have forced someone he admired to do this. Getting Bohr to work with Heisenberg on the project would be incredibly tricky, but possible if Bohr decides he can later leak German nuclear secrets to the USSR or the USA. Like I said, that one is touchy.

About discovering plutonium - might be, but I'm no expert for the history of nuclear physics.

Plutonium was discovered as a decay product of U-238 and Pu-239 does occur naturally in very small quantities in uranium ores. It's not impossible for Germany to discover plutonium independently, but just not very likely.

Pooling resources would help, but Hitler wasn't into that - he had groups of scientists working parallel on the same objective, believing that the best would win.

Again, this was something I mentioned. Heisenberg has to manage to convince Hitler to give him all the resources he needs, which could eventually precipitate into a pooling of resources. It would be accidental, but history is full of accidents. It's not altogether implausible, but Hitler's attitude adds another roadblock.

And forcing scientists to join the work wouldn't help either. Even Otto Hahn said "if Hitler gets a nuke thanks to my work, I'll kill myself!"

Agreed. Heisenberg really has to play diplomat to get people to cooperate with him.

The only way the Nazis will get a nuke is if you change their attitude toward the Jews. Remember, Hitler had declared that E=MC2 was "Jew science" and therefore not to be used in German bomb work.

Part of the original criticism towards Heisenberg in Germany was that he was teaching those theories. After an investigation, the Nazi Party backed off and any further investigations against Heisenberg were blocked. That's something else to consider.

 

[Max Sinister]

Checked German wikipedia: 1942 Heisenberg and others told Speer that they'd need 3-5 years to finish a uranium nuke, after which the case was closed. However, they didn't tell him that a plutonium nuke would still be possible. (The article claims that this could work like in the CANDU reactor, which India used IOTL for its nukes; a heavy water uranium breeding reactor would suffice.)

 

[Ace Venom]

Thanks. I didn't realize how far along their plutonium program was, but they'd still have to deal with the problem of the implosion device (assuming they hadn't). I already assumed the POD would have to be in the 1930s because anything beyond that was too late.

 

[Max Sinister]

The article also claims that in the last weeks of the war, they "came close to make a reactor critical" - note: Not "producing usable uranium / plutonium", and neither "finishing a nuke". This was three years after Fermi.

 

[Ace Venom]

Yes. I've read some of the translated version of the article. One thing I remember reading that in Heisenberg's deliberate sabotage of the project, he purposely lied about the amount of U-235 needed for critical mass, making it into an amount that was beyond the resources of Germany. You've given me something else I can read. Thanks a lot. I probably won't be able to post again until tomorrow afternoon, but I'll be working on something rough in the meantime. Keep the discussion coming.

 

[Riain]

I think two main preconditions would need to be met. 1) Hahn's (?) faulty calculations which 'proved' early on that a nuke was not feasable need to be corrected at the source to show that a nuke is feasable. If it was shown that a nuke was feasable the whole attitude to certain personel could be put aside until the bomb was well along the way. Also this discovery may have led to the gathering of all talent and exsisting effort into a single 'nuclear city', like the Manhattan project which would further facilitiate building a nuke. 2) Germany would need spare industrial capacity, which it lacked during ww2. Even with France, Italy and other occupied countires adding to the German their industrial capacity was still less than half of the USA alone, discounting what the Brits chip in. To get a nuke from this small industrial base they probably need for the war to go better for them to free up industrial and raw material resources. But even with all of this I doubt Germany would get a nuke before the USA. US theoretical nuclear physicis probably overtook German by 1939, and the US assembly of talent got things right where the germans got things wrong early on, and the US had the resources to spare during the war. All in all the US started more quickly from a better launch and was going to be better at each stage of the race.

 

[Kevin in Indy]

...but what do you do with it?

You'll need to include some parallel work on how to deploy a German nuke. Even allowing for superior German engineering, the bomb will be too heavy for any missle developed during the OTL version of the war. Delivery via bomber would require a heavy bomber with the range to reach a significant target (London, Zhukhov's HQ, probably not Moscow by that time) and enough tactical air support to keep said bomber in the sky long enough to reach the target.

I suppose you could hide the bomb in front of an advancing army, but that would be somewhat cliche'...