Hapsburg Hungary POD-Archduke Joseph and Alexandra Pavlovna have a surviving son

Archduke Joseph was the Hapsburg Palatine (governor) of Hungary from 1796 to 1847, during which time he essentially ran the country for the Hapsburg emperors and presided over a number of reforms, developing close relationships with the Hungarian nobility and helping to mediate between them and the Austrian monarchy. He was married several times, but the most interesting one from an alt-history perspective was to Alexandra Pavlovna, daughter of Russian Czar Paul I and sister to Alexander I and Nicholas I. The marriage took place in 1799, and she died in childbirth, along with the couple's first child, in 1801.

Now, lets say as a POD that Alexandra has a normal lifespan, and that her and Archduke Joseph have at least one surviving son. This son grows up in Budapest, gets to know all the major actors in Hungarian politics, and furthermore is closely related to the Russian Imperial family. For the sake of the TL, lets also say he develops a general affection for Hungary and Hungarian culture, and moderately liberal inclinations. Thus, when 1848 rolls around and Hungary declares independence, it does so by electing our hypothetical son as King.

Thus, the dynamic of the Hungarian revolution is changed considerably. The Hungarians are not trying to overthrow the legitimate dynasty and create a republic, but are instead demanding a split of the Hapsburg empire-something which has historical precident. Furthermore, Hungary has, historically, elected its kings.

Thus, 1848 Hungary in this TL is being led by someone who would be much more palitable to conservatives (in and outside Hungary) and who, furthermore, has a close blood relationship to the Russian royal family. Thoughts?
 

ahmedali

Banned
I think Alexander II might support an independent Hungary, whose king was more closely related to the Romanovs than to his father



His father, Nicholas I, was obsessed with the principle of legality (which led to bad relations with Napoleon III and Louis-Philippe Orléans because they were usurpers of the throne in the eyes of Nicholas I).



Even if the Habsburg king had Romanov blood from his mother, the Hungarian elite would still be interested in the affairs of government, and they were hostile to the Russians and in favor of the survival of the Ottomans in the Balkans



(Because the Ottomans would not pressure any claim to Hungarian land, unlike Serbia and Romania, the only ones who supported the independence of Hungary)


Realistic scenario The successful Hungary during 1848 is Hungary that deposes the Habsburgs in favor of another king


(Prince Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha is an ideal choice for the King of Hungary because he is married to a Hungarian noblewoman and is close to all of the British, Belgian and Portuguese royal families)


which recognizes the early independence of Croatia (they hated the Hungarians a lot and supported Vienna against Budapest)


Kossuth is more successful in persuading non-Hungarian minorities to side with them (which is even more difficult because the nobles supported policies of persecuting minorities and making them Hungarian).


In fact, I doubt that Hungary will retain its lands if it succeeds in becoming independent
 
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