Hamilcar wins the Battle of Himera (480 BCE) - a Carthage Timeline

[danteheadman]

OTL:

• 500-480s BCE, Doric Greek "tyrants" became the dominant powers in Sicily, most especially the city of Gela.
• Gela, led by Gelon, takes Syracuse and makes it his capital. Gelon undertakes an ethnic cleansing of Ionian Greeks and Sicels.
• Ionian Greeks requested aid and support from Carthage.
• Hamilcar of Carthage sails with his army to Panormus / Palermo, and is beset by storms. The ships carrying chariots and horses sink. Hamilcar takes three days upon landing to reorganize his forces.
• Hamilcar defeats a smaller force of Doric Greeks led by Theron, another tyrant allied to Gelon and Syracuse. Theron calls for aid from Syracuse and Gelon brings his forces.
• Hamilcar decisively loses the battle of Himera against Gelon. Carthage retreats. A peace is signed with Gelon where Carthage paid 2,000 talents of silver, loses no Sicilian territory, and immediately undergoes a domestic political crisis.
• The Carthaginian monarchy is politically constrained and ultimately disposed of by the aristocratic-trader merchant class, transforming Carthage into the merchantile state that we know and love.

I believe, as do some historians, that this political transition structurally disabled Carthage from developing a domestic military tradition that could compete with Rome, and therefore contributed to Carthage's ultimate defeat in the Punic Wars.

We know that Carthage probably could have beaten them at Himera, as Carthage did so in the Second Sicilian War about seventy years later (before Hannibal Mago's army was struck down by plague, forcing another peace). And because Sicily remained divided between Carthaginian and Greek colonies, there were a total of Seven Sicilian Wars for control over the entire island, which bled into the Pyrrhic War, Roman involvement in Sicily, and the Punic Wars.

What if there had been no storm that day? What if Hamilcar brought his entire military to Sicily in 480 BCE and soundly defeated the Doric Greeks the first time, conquering all of Sicily for Carthage?

 

[danteheadman]

I think that a victory here would have two major impacts:

First, Carthaginian control over all of Siciliy would make Carthage much richer much faster. Sicily is no Iberia, but it's a lot closer to Carthage and is highly productive agricultural land. Punic Sicily would also allow Carthage to more aggressively project naval power in the middle Mediterranean, ensuring that Carthage becomes the major naval power. It would prevent Greek city-states from being able to meaningfully head into Iberia and allow Carthage to press into Italy itself.

Second, it would prevent the death / suicide of Hamilcar and the weakening of the monarchy (or tyrrany, as it's not fully clear the degree of inheritability that Magonid rule enjoyed down the centuries; suffet, related to the Hebrew shofet, a term in Iron Age Israelite politics used to refer to the combined judicial-executive power prior to the consolidation of the Davidic monarchy). Starting in 480 the Carthaginian Council of Elders (religious and merchantile leaders primarily) along with the Tribunal of 104 (judges?) began taking more and more power. A shift away from military governance by the Magonids as a rule corresponded with a diminishing of Carthage's military strength more generally; see here for an article from the scholarly journal Historia on the subject.

I argue that had Carthage won against the Greeks and seized control of Sicily, Carthage would have had both the economic power and military infrastructure to - perhaps - prevail against the Romans in the Punic Wars. At minimum, it would have deterred the Punic Wars in the 200s at minimum, enabling Carthage to continue expanding and developing at a time when Rome was confined to the Italian Peninsula!

 

[danteheadman]

So Carthage defeats the Doric Greeks in the First Sicilian War in 480 BCE. Now what?

Carthage claims hegemony over the Ionian Greek cities in Sicily's north and east that requested aid against the Doric Greeks, and extracts thousands of talents of silver in tribute from the Doric cities of Syracuse in Sicily's east and south. Hamilcar returns triumphant to Carthage with a great deal of wealth and tribute for the city. Hamilcar centralizes his power with the construction of a new temple to Melqart, and the Magonids continue to be elected or appointed again and again with no immediate loss of authority to the developing merchant class.

Sometime within the next century, Carthage and Syracuse go to war a second time (the Second Sicilian War), resulting in another decisive victory for Carthage (no plague this time!) and the sacking of Syracuse itself. Carthage is able to exercise hegemony over all of Sicily for the first time. As OTL, Carthaginian colonists also continue settling Iberia, only on a much grander scale ITTL - increased food and wealth from Sicilian tribute enables greater development in the west. Earlier Iberian mines and farms funnel even more wealth even sooner into Carthage proper.

Now we are entering the 300s BCE. Carthage is larger than ever before, spanning most of coastal eastern, southern, and western Iberia, North Africa from the Pillars of Hercules all the way to the bordern with Persian Cyrenaica, and the islands of Corsica, Sardinia, Sicily, and the Balearics. Scattered independent Punic settlements with ties to Carthage stretch as far as southern Britannia and coastal West Africa. The Magonids have a large standing army that they pay directly, though it is composed primarily of mercenaries from across the Carthaginian Mediterranean.

Carthage is richer than ever, with a small rising class of Greek, Berber, and Celtic noncitizen merchants under Carthaginian hegemony and a very wealthy number of Punic Carthaginian merchants with minimal political power. In the early 300s BCE, Carthage undergoes a series of civil wars (the Merchants' Wars) started by those wealthy Punic merchants demanding increased representation and hiring their own mercenaries. This results in the Magonids granting the Council of Elders and the Tribunal increased political power, but does not topple the monarchy.

Unique among Mediterranean polities, Carthage also expanded the citizenship franchise in a particularly Carthaginian way. Previously limited to descendants of the original Phoenician settlers of Carthage, any free subject of Carthaginian hegemony would be able to purchase citizenship directly. The Magonids implemented this change to achieve a few goals simultaneously: to deter copycat civil wars by wealthy Greek, Berber, or Iberian Celtic merchants seeking to replicate the destabilizing Merchants' Wars; to deter rebellions by slaves or poorer subjects of Carthaginian hegemony, as there is now a (theoretical) path from the lowest rung of society to its upper echelons; to dilute the newly gained political power of the local Carthaginian merchant class; and for the Carthaginian state, and the Magonid dynasty, to secure another source of revenue.

At this point, continued Magonid reelection to the position of Melek is essentially guaranteed, though it is still a theoretically open contest among any wealthy citizen residing in Carthage under law. The Magonids survive, for now, as rulers of an increasingly republican Carthage.

(While the Levant is still under Persian rule, close ties exist between Levantine Phoenician cities and Carthage. Relations between Persia and Carthage are likewise good, as the Persians are both tolerant of Levantine Phoenician customs and they are sufficiently distant from each other's immediate ambitions. Rome is still engaged in conquering all of Italy for itself. Alexander the Great has only just been born!)

 

[danteheadman]

Okay. Let me talk a little about timeline goals here.

First, as a metacommentary point of order, please y'all gotta give me some feedback. Ideas, suggestions, critique, whatever. I want to hear your thoughts!

Second, the timeline is current to
350 BCE. I know where I want this to end up but am not exactly sure how to get there.

Alexander the Great is going to march east as in OTL and will die on schedule. Rome will consolidate power on the Italian peninsula and will fight Carthage to a stalemate over Sicily in the 200s BCE while the Diadochi do their thing.

I just don't really know what will happen in Carthage during this time. Probably more rebellions by slaves and poor freedmen. Possibly Persia may request support from Carthage against Alexander; I haven't decided on if they will and, if the request is made, what Carthage will do or how it will impact things. Maybe Carthage will engage and lose, appearing sufficiently weak to Roman eyes to justify the Punic Wars happening on schedule as OTL (as Carthage's loss against Alexander would counterbalance any reputational gains from the prior century in the Sicilian Wars, which otherwise might deter the Punic Wars to a later date when Rome is more secure).

Regardless, I know that I want Carthage to eventually possess the Levant. Which means there's going to be conflict with the Diadochi and Rome. I'm not sure how that will shake out exactly, eifher. Possibly through direct conflict with the Ptolemies, which will be interesting since AFAIK the Greek rulers were very secure in their power, and Rome will absolutely want to get involved - between Carthaginuan Sicily and Egypt's plentiful grain harvests, Rome can't help but want a piece of that pie. So Carthage will have a serious fight on their hands depending on when that happens.

Alternatively, the Hasmoneans may reach out to Carthage instead of Rome in the 160s BCE for help against the Seleucids, as Carthage would be a major non-Hellenic power in the Mediterranean and shared cultural commonalities (including language) with the Jews. Which would give Carthage an opportunity to be directly involved in the Levant without having to go through Egypt. But that'll also be in another two hundred years from where the TL is right now - there's lots of time before that.

Third, once Carthage is exercising hegemony over the Levant, things are going to get interesting. Jewish-Carthaginian relations are going to be very different than Jewish-Roman relations. Specifically, the Jews in Judea are going to want very desperately to "return" Carthage to Judaism and adherence to Torah Law.

In the Torah, Tyre and Sidon are situated within Israelite territory, specifically the tribe of Asher:

The fifth lot fell to the tribe of the Asherites, by their clans. . . . Ebron, Rehob, Hammon, and Kanah, up to Great Sidon. The boundary turned to Ramah and on to the fortified city of Tyre; then the boundary turned to Hosah and it ran on westward to Mehebel, Achzib . . .
Joshua, 19:24, 28-29

Moreover, by the Hellenistic era, the idea of the "Ten Lost Tribes" of Israel's north, dispersed and cut off by the Neo-Assyrian Empire, was already a firm part of Jewish belief.

Carthage was founded as a colony of Tyre. Carthage was cut off from the Tyre and the Levantine Phoenicians by the Assyrians. Carthage worshiped the Canaanite deity Baal Hadad above all others - who can easily be conflated with the same Baal that the Prophets so frequently railed against.

Regardless of it's obvious lack of factual basis, a plethora of Jews will believe that Carthage was founded by and is ruled by the "Lost Tribe" of Asher. Instead of Messianic fervor railing against Greco-Roman idolatry and agitating for Jewish independence from Rome, there will be Messianic fervor railing against Punic idolatry and agitating for the adoption of Judaism by Carthage! I'm just not sure how that will turn out yet.

Fourth and finally: Carthage will ultimately subjugate and incorporate, first economically and then legally/militarily, the entire Mediterranean basin. The inevitable tension with Persia in the east that this would cause will not go in Carthage's favor. Carthage may never possess and certainly would not be able to keep Mesopotamia, Babylon, and Armenia. However, Carthage will expand it's reach farther along the Atlantic coast than Rome did, deeper into Britain and down the West African coastline, and eventually push into the Sahel. Gaul and Hibernia, if either are ever fully conquered, would be a recurring hotbed of rebellion against Carthage. Carthage will also not be able to handle Germanic incursions as well as Rome did. And ultimately, when the Roman Warm Period ends, the Carthaginian Empire will collapse due to multiple simultaneous crises.

But! During this time, Carthage will make (accidental) contact with the Americas. The Columbian Exchange will happen, in a very limited fashion. Diseases and some crops will be able to make the trip, but maybe not horses. The knowledge that the Americas exist will be recorded in the Mediterranean, and may be relegated to myth when Pax Carthago ends. Mesoamerican civilization will take a major hit and some states may collapse, but the next empires to arise will be more disease resistant and be introduced to the sail - and remember the travelers and traders from across the ocean. In the end, contact will be lost again - until the Vikings, armed with the prior knowledge that the Americas are out there, push into Greenland and Vinland earlier and in greater numbers.

Another update will come soon.

 

[danteheadman]

I, Alexander, son of Zeus-Ammon, King of all Asia, who is destined to be Emperor of the World, swear this: The walls of Carthage shall feel the wrath of Greece. Tyre and Gaza's defiance will be returned to you. Your riches will be mine, your navy and legions vanquished. Carthage, prepare for my revenge. - Alexander the Great, 332 BCE.

Alexander the Great was born on July 20, 356 BCE, and proceeded to change the world forever. Following in his father's footsteps, Alexander waged war against the Achaemenid Persian Empire in the Eastern Mediterranean. His forces won battle after decicive battle through Greece and Anatolia before heading south to the Levant.

In November of 333 BCE, Alexander's Hellenic League engaged with Darius III's troops directly in the Battle of Issus. The soundly defeated Darius fled the scene when his army was routed. After Darius' subsequent peace offering was rejected by Alexander, the Achaemenid emperor realized that he could not defeat the upstart Macedonian Greek alone. Darius III sent an envoy to Carthage requesting naval aid.

As the Phoenician port cities between Issus and Tyre began to capitulate to Alexander one by one, the Carthaginian political elite convened. Tyre was locally independent of Persian rule and had publicly announced its intention to remain neutral in the conflict and pay tribute to the victor - but so had the other Phoenician cities. Alexander demanded their immediate submission regardless. And Darius' Mediterranean fleet was primarily leased from those same cities; the more cities bowed to Hellenic rule, the stronger Greek power in the Mediterranean would become.

But defending Tyre from Alexander would be no mean feat, especially now that he had defeated Darius so soundly at Issus. The citizens of Carthage - primarily the merchant elite from across the Western Mediterranean and a few others - were reluctant to spend the treasure necessary to even raise a force that could rival Persia or the Hellenic League. And this was all in the eastern Mediterranean, not the west; would war even come to Carthage if it did not get involved? Would fighting Alexander put the pearl of Africa at risk of conquest in turn?

It was at this time that an Tyrian envoy arrived at the Hall of the Great Assembly in Carthage, the stone and cedarwood structure where the more republican elements of government met. He led a host of women, children, and the elderly, and requested aid for those fleeing the coming siege. Permission and a grain stipend was granted - this was not the first time that Phoenicians fled the Levant to Carthage. Tens of thousands of Tyrian refugees (along with other Levantines) came to reside in Carthage, with the hope that they would return home after the war.

After extensive debate, the suffet and melek Magon Magonid elected to hire a mercenary force and raise a fleet out of his own coffers; the rest of the merchant elite either refused to believe that impregnable Tyre was at serious risk of conquest, or refused to commit their own funds to its defense.

Alexander's forces arrived at the Tyrian coast in November 332 BCE. After swiftly occupying the Old City, he sent an envoy to the island of the New City to request permission to enter and offer sacrifices in the Temple of Melqart (the Greek Heracles). The Tyrians again proclaimed their independence from the war for the Persian throne and refused both Greek and Persian entry; they feared that permitting Alexander into their city would be interpreted by the Achaemenids as capitulation. They were probably right - and Alexander knew it. So Alexander the Great's forces began to blockade and siege the island city of Tyre.

The siege dragged on for months. Tyre was able to sustain itself with its grain and water stores, fish catch, and rain. Alexander's forces encamped in the Tyrian Old City through the winter and waited for Tyre to tire. But in the early spring of 332 BCE, Carthage's navy arrived.

A pitched battle began in late March. Carthaginian mercenaries outfought the Greeks' pitiful few own boats, but Punic and Iberian soldiers died on Greek spears along the shore in droves. The blockade was broken and Alexander's navy was shattered, but the Hellenic League was still in the Old City of Tyre. And Alexander was furious.

Carthage defeated him at sea? He will remove the sea from the battlefield.

In April, Alexander's forces began to build the now-famous causeway to the New City of Tyre. Beset by artillery from the New City's walls and from the Carthaginian navy, Greek slaves and soldiers began to lay massive blocks of stone to create solid ground between the coast and the island fortress. Greek siege towers defended the workers as they built. Alexander also called in his newly appropriated Phoenician fleet, to distract the superior Carthaginian navy from harassing his siege towers and workers.

Alexander breached the walls of Tyre in early May. Hellenic forces slaughtered every living soul in Tyre, only sparing those sheltering for their lives in the Temple of Melqart. The King of Tyre alone among those sheltering in the Temple was not spared the sword, for he had requested aid from Carthage.

Alexander began to march to Gaza. And Carthage's navy - along with the stragglers and survivors of the Tyrian fleet - sailed past to begin mounting the defense.

___________

OTL Carthage did not get involved and Alexander waited until August to build his causeway to take Tyre. Also, Alexander's recently obtained Phoenician navy has been trashed by Carthage's more skilled sailors. Alexander is now slightly ahead of where he was OTL by a matter of five months - and is peeved at Carthage! How dare they interfere in his destiny of conquering the whole of Persia?