The kidnapping of Elizabeth failed without any word yet having come from London of the gunpowder plot - seems unlikely that she'll be taken, so I think Cymraeg is right that we're on for Queen Elizabeth II.
Gunpowder Plot destroys Houses of Parliament and Westminster Abbey
- Thread starter trinity
- Start date
Again , its a small group of plotters ( normally considered 13 strong ), not a massive conspiracy. Show some evidence that they had the ability to get to Charles or Elizabeth. I've checked the explosive power of the gunpowder and your statement that it would kill all the people in Westminster Abbey seems off, House of lords yes, shatter all the windows in the Abbey , yes but actually bring the roof down or other damage enough to kill everyone , no chance.
trinity
Banned
Gunpowder Plot would have devastated London
A new analysis by physicists shows the foiled 1605 plot to destroy the English parliament would have been highly destructive
www.newscientist.com
Arbella Stuart was the main other contender for the throne and was the subject of a number of potential plots - almost all of which she blew the whistle on as she didn't want to get sent to the Tower of London. After that I think there was a cousin in Scotland but I might be mistaken on that.
Once again, we're talking about a small group of plotters whose plan was built on wishful thinking and woo.
(That said, I agree that there have been studies and at least one recreation that showed that although some of the gunpowder to be used in the plot had decayed badly, there was still enough of it to blow a huge part of the Palace of Westminster to bits, killing hundreds of people at the very least.)
Probably not. Regicide isn't a precedent they're going to want to endorse.
Maybe they could condemn the attack, and offer to take in English Catholics. England would then expel its Catholic population - they could be sent to Ireland, Spain, France, or the New World. Similar to expelling the Acadians from Nova Scotia in OTL.
That was good for a laugh, obviously done for shock value to get the biggest result. 1 lb of gunpowder is not the same as 1 lb of TNT, heat of combustion of gunpowder is about 80% of TNT. Also the amount assumed is at the top end of possible , 2.5 tons rather than the normal 1 ton estimate. They did not computer model it so . again lots of assumptions that various factors would somehow balance outGunpowder Plot would have devastated London
A new analysis by physicists shows the foiled 1605 plot to destroy the English parliament would have been highly destructive
I would like to know the opinion about the presupposition of what they develop their analysis to project and estimate for some people with more knowledge on explosives and the 1600's Powder making and if it'd be possible to compare its explosive power to the actual TNT:Gunpowder Plot would have devastated London
A new analysis by physicists shows the foiled 1605 plot to destroy the English parliament would have been highly destructive
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As I said lots of assumptions to get the number as big as possible. To address the increase blast silliness. You cannot just make gunpowder have a bigger bang , all you can do is channel the blast so its more devastating in a smaller area. In this case being in a cellar and vertically standing the barrels, you might create a mortar effect, the blast would have a greater vertical component at the expanse on horizontal spread. So you end up destroying the House of Lords more completely but you reduce the radius of the damage.
What would the effect be of flaming bits of Parliament raining down on adjacent structures? Does London burn down like in 1666?
Wasn't there a timeline here dealing with exactly that scenario?
Found it: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/elizabeth-stuart-pawn-avenger-queen.468736/
Found it: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/elizabeth-stuart-pawn-avenger-queen.468736/
trinity
Banned
The damage Guy Fawkes could have done
Guy Fawkes could have made a very big noise in Whitehall, physicists confirmed today.
www.theguardian.com
Gunpowder plot blast 'would have destroyed' Westminster
Guy Fawkes' gunpowder plot would have wrecked buildings in Whitehall up to a third of a mile away as well as destroying the Houses of Parliament and Westminster Abbey, scientists have calculated.
www.independent.co.uk
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To add to the many reason why Cathsby and co pulling it off won't happen:
I. By Fawkes' own accounting only half of the gunpowder would probably explode, which means Charles probably live.
II. The very candidate the plotters had in mind for a regent (the Earl of Northumberland) was a moderate and tolerant Protestant, but a Protestant nonetheless and in all probability loyal to the Crown and the CoE. There was no viable Catholic, or even ''opposition'' candidate for the regency. Northumberland would have probably been horrified by the explosion and would have participed in repressing the plot rather then support it, leaving them with no plan for a government.
III. Even if everything else goes right for the plotters you still had a country with a strong Protestant majority and a political class overwhelmingly Protestant-dominated. The heirs of those who died will step in their roles among the English gentry and nobility while the bishops would be replaced by their archdeacons and they would proceed to quickly crush the Catholic uprising they had spend the last few decades being paranoid about, liberating the now-queen Elizabeth II if she need to be liberated at all.
IV. Spain and France are not gonna help in any shape or form. Spain at this stage was exhausted and unable to make headway against even the Netherlands alone, definitely not in any shape to intervene before the plotters are done for. They had given up on restoring English Catholicism by strength of arm by the end of the 16th century and the explosion won't change that. As for France, they were in fact pretty much allied to England in the aftermath of fighting together against Spain.
Overall I'd agree with those who say Elizabeth II is likely to be a thing. Even if the butterflies lead to her kidnaping being successfull she would be the only thing standing between her kidnappers and being executed for high treason so she probably emerge from it unscathed. If she doesn't then Arbela Stuart is the strongest candidate in England, with the Seymours not too far behind, due to Henry VIII's last succession act in the later' case. Ods are you'd get some kind of wedding to reconcile the two claims (which is ironic because Arbela go imprisoned by James in OTL for marrying William Seymour without the king's permission...). The Hamiltons will probably get the Scottish Crown.
More broadly, the relative moderation of James' early reign in OTL (which I would argue is more because the war with Spain was wrapping up and the fact Regnans in Excelensis was not renewed against him then any true phylosophical difference with Elizabeth I in that regard). England will get very ugly times in term of religious persecutions, probably significantly worse then ever in OTL... Without James and with a far more anti-Catholic regime in place I'd expect England to get involved in the ITTL equivalent of the 30YW and then the butterflies will fly from there...
I. By Fawkes' own accounting only half of the gunpowder would probably explode, which means Charles probably live.
II. The very candidate the plotters had in mind for a regent (the Earl of Northumberland) was a moderate and tolerant Protestant, but a Protestant nonetheless and in all probability loyal to the Crown and the CoE. There was no viable Catholic, or even ''opposition'' candidate for the regency. Northumberland would have probably been horrified by the explosion and would have participed in repressing the plot rather then support it, leaving them with no plan for a government.
III. Even if everything else goes right for the plotters you still had a country with a strong Protestant majority and a political class overwhelmingly Protestant-dominated. The heirs of those who died will step in their roles among the English gentry and nobility while the bishops would be replaced by their archdeacons and they would proceed to quickly crush the Catholic uprising they had spend the last few decades being paranoid about, liberating the now-queen Elizabeth II if she need to be liberated at all.
IV. Spain and France are not gonna help in any shape or form. Spain at this stage was exhausted and unable to make headway against even the Netherlands alone, definitely not in any shape to intervene before the plotters are done for. They had given up on restoring English Catholicism by strength of arm by the end of the 16th century and the explosion won't change that. As for France, they were in fact pretty much allied to England in the aftermath of fighting together against Spain.
Overall I'd agree with those who say Elizabeth II is likely to be a thing. Even if the butterflies lead to her kidnaping being successfull she would be the only thing standing between her kidnappers and being executed for high treason so she probably emerge from it unscathed. If she doesn't then Arbela Stuart is the strongest candidate in England, with the Seymours not too far behind, due to Henry VIII's last succession act in the later' case. Ods are you'd get some kind of wedding to reconcile the two claims (which is ironic because Arbela go imprisoned by James in OTL for marrying William Seymour without the king's permission...). The Hamiltons will probably get the Scottish Crown.
More broadly, the relative moderation of James' early reign in OTL (which I would argue is more because the war with Spain was wrapping up and the fact Regnans in Excelensis was not renewed against him then any true phylosophical difference with Elizabeth I in that regard). England will get very ugly times in term of religious persecutions, probably significantly worse then ever in OTL... Without James and with a far more anti-Catholic regime in place I'd expect England to get involved in the ITTL equivalent of the 30YW and then the butterflies will fly from there...
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They were totally willing to murderise Elizabeth I. It's not as if the very protestant James I was any better.
I don't think so. Elizabeth was nine at the time of the Gunpowder Plot. Even if she'd wanted to resist the men who killed her family, if they captured her, she'd probably have been powerless against them, at least until she came of age.
My guess is that Elizabeth would be named Queen by the Catholics to lend their new regime some veneer of legitimacy. They'd probably be hoping to make her a pliant child Queen - nine is young enough to be 're-educated' in their eyes. Whether they'd succeed is another matter, and one people most likely wouldn't find out until she came of age.
Of course, if Elizabeth is Queen, then she's probably going to end up marrying someone other than Frederick of the Palatine...