Guam is built up.

kent

What if arround 1935 the US seeing Japan was not living up to the Washington treaty started to build up Guam, Wake and American Samoa with airfileds, troops and forts? Could this have helped Guam hold out
longer than it did? Would or could this mean a few extra ships at or near Guam on 12/7/41?
 

loughery111

Banned
kent said:
What if arround 1935 the US seeing Japan was not living up to the Washington treaty started to build up Guam, Wake and American Samoa with airfileds, troops and forts? Could this have helped Guam hold out
longer than it did? Would or could this mean a few extra ships at or near Guam on 12/7/41?
Click to expand...

We would have had to make preparations to blow the saipan and tinian garrisons from the face of the earth if you intend to resupply those islands at all.
 

Bearcat

Banned
You need aerial superiority to hold Guam. Either you're strong enough to crush Saipan and Tinian, or they are going to come for you.

It'll take several airfields, and a fighter that can take on the Zero. Otherwise you'll just end up with more POWs being shipped to Japan. But its not impossible.
 

DaleCoz

I did something similar to this a couple of years ago. Don't remember if it was here or just in my AH Newsletter. I had the US trying to pull off a quick and dirty buildup on Guam as a reaction to the Japanese occupation of southern Indochina.

This is militarily more feasible, but politically less so than the 1941 attempt. The Military tried to get Guam fortifications approved a few times in the 30's but Congress felt that taking that step would provoke the Japanese and trigger an arms race in the area. Guam fortifications would be a logical thing for the US because it would unlock one of the key island chains the Japanese planned to use to keep the US from reinforcing the Philippines.

For that same reason, the Japanese would go all out to take out or neutralize the US presence on Guam. That might or might not be a good thing from the US standpoint. On the bad side, whatever resources the US put into Guam presumably wouldn't be available somewhere else--modern planes and soldiers not available for the Philippines, or Hawaii, or Iceland.

On the good side, the Japanese are also going to be putting scarce resources into a counter-buildup, and those resources won't be available elsewhere. Wake probably won't get attacked until Guam falls. A strong US presence in Guam also complicates Japanese planning if they still do a Pearl Harbor attack. A simultaneous attack on Pearl and Guam would be difficult to pull off, and especially to be sure they were going to be able to pull off. Attacking one would definitely alert the other, and the air part of Guam versus the nearby Japanese-held islands would be scorpions in a bottle. Striking first would be very important.
 

DaleCoz

The ideal situation from a US standpoint might be the US and Japanese getting into a slogging match over Guam. Initially the US would be hurt more, but if the battle didn't end with a quick Japanese victory the Japanese would have a huge drain on their scarce shipping, and would probably lose in the long run. The US could probably run supply ships in at night if the Japanese had air superiority, and probably keep a steady trickle of planes coming in, flown off of carriers, to challenge Japanese dominance. I'm visualizing this as sort of like Guadalcanal about nine months earlier, with the Japanese fleet stronger, but with their strategic position weakened, and with the crucial battle happening a lot further from their main centers of power.
 

Bearcat

Banned
DaleCoz said:
...Guam fortifications would be a logical thing for the US because it would unlock one of the key island chains the Japanese planned to use to keep the US from reinforcing the Philippines.

For that same reason, the Japanese would go all out to take out or neutralize the US presence on Guam. That might or might not be a good thing from the US standpoint. On the bad side, whatever resources the US put into Guam presumably wouldn't be available somewhere else--modern planes and soldiers not available for the Philippines, or Hawaii, or Iceland. ....
Click to expand...

Maybe a good point here is, troops and planes for the Philippines are basically being thrown in the trash if you can't hold Guam anyway. If Guam falls, the PI are toast no matter what. Of course, Guam is toast if Wake falls too. The US cannot be weak anywhere along the chain of bases, or the IJN will just come and sever it. Now if you can hold Midway, Wake AND Guam... well... that is interesting.
 

DaleCoz

Bearcat said:
Maybe a good point here is, troops and planes for the Philippines are basically being thrown in the trash if you can't hold Guam anyway. If Guam falls, the PI are toast no matter what. Of course, Guam is toast if Wake falls too. The US cannot be weak anywhere along the chain of bases, or the IJN will just come and sever it. Now if you can hold Midway, Wake AND Guam... well... that is interesting.
Click to expand...

Yep. The Japanese can't allow that. It throws off their entire war plan. Of course their war plan was rubbish anyway, but still, holding Guam, etc puts the US six months to a year ahead in the Pacific.
 

kent

My thoughts were that had the US built an airport on Guam then it could have been used as a midpoint for the hop from Hawaii to the Philippines. Being that close to Saipan and Tinian the forces on Guam would have been more alert and might not have lost air cover like the Philippines did.
The garrison might still have fallen but the cost would have been alot higher. Plus had there been a garrison with aircover then maybe the Navy
would have assigned better naval coverage for the island.
 
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