Like it says on the tin. Suppose the Greek rebels are defeated by the Ottomans early on, in late 1821 or early 1822. A POD which could help, at least on the political front, would be keeping the patriarch of Constantinople from being executed on the orders of Mahmud II, since not only did he excommunicate the rebels three times, but his murder caused an international outrage and made the ongoing unrest in Greece worse.
How would the rest of Mahmud's reign develop if the revolt is put down in its opening stages? Though he did preside over some successes IOTL, the biggest of which was the purge of the Janissaries, but there were also several disasters, one of which was the loss of southern Greece.
My guess is that things will go much better for Constantinople, at least in the short term. IOTL the foreign intervention that forced the empire to terms happened right after the Janissaries were disbanded, at a time the new army wasn't organized yet. Will Greece rebel again in the future? My guess is yes, but whether they'll be successful or not is another question.
Will Constantinople be able to bring Muhammad Ali to heel without defeats like the ones suffered at Navarino at sea and against Russia on land? Will the Treaty of Balta Liman, which AFAIK ruined Ottoman manufacturing IOTL, still be signed?
How would the rest of Mahmud's reign develop if the revolt is put down in its opening stages? Though he did preside over some successes IOTL, the biggest of which was the purge of the Janissaries, but there were also several disasters, one of which was the loss of southern Greece.
My guess is that things will go much better for Constantinople, at least in the short term. IOTL the foreign intervention that forced the empire to terms happened right after the Janissaries were disbanded, at a time the new army wasn't organized yet. Will Greece rebel again in the future? My guess is yes, but whether they'll be successful or not is another question.
Will Constantinople be able to bring Muhammad Ali to heel without defeats like the ones suffered at Navarino at sea and against Russia on land? Will the Treaty of Balta Liman, which AFAIK ruined Ottoman manufacturing IOTL, still be signed?