Great Powers reaction to an Ottoman Collapse in 1807-1808

[Kaiman]

Hey guys. I am currently writing a TL where Napoleon didn't make his two big blunders (The Peninsular War and the Invasion of Russia). I found an older post concerning what would happen if the Ottoman Empire collapsed due to the Palace Coups of 1807-1808. My main question is if Mahmud II is killed and no successful claimant (or puppet) is able to keep the throne, how would the Great Powers react?

Personally, I believe that Austria and Russia would have a field day partitioning the Balkans but the intervention of Britain and France would ensure a neutral power like Greece is placed in charge of the Bosporus and Dardanelles. What do you guys think?

 

[alexmilman]

Hey guys. I am currently writing a TL where Napoleon didn't make his two big blunders (The Peninsular War and the Invasion of Russia). I found an older post concerning what would happen if the Ottoman Empire collapsed due to the Palace Coups of 1807-1808. My main question is if Mahmud II is killed and no successful claimant (or puppet) is able to keep the throne, how would the Great Powers react?

Personally, I believe that Austria and Russia would have a field day partitioning the Balkans but the intervention of Britain and France would ensure a neutral power like Greece is placed in charge of the Bosporus and Dardanelles. What do you guys think?

For this Greece would need first to be created and then to be an acceptable candidate for everybody involved including Russia and Austria. A complete collapse of the OE is unlikely but scenario you described would almost definitely handicap the Ottomans in ongoing war with Russia. However, it is not clear if RE circa 1809 would pursue the same policy as in 1878 with the resulting creation of something close to the Balkan mess. Anyway, the Straits in the hands of much weakened Ottomans would probably be considered the best scenario.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@raharris1973

 

[raharris1973]

However, it is not clear if RE circa 1809 would pursue the same policy as in 1878 with the resulting creation of something close to the Balkan mess.

Well, we would have to consider what alternatives to the 1878 solutions they would have, in both relevant areas, the Caucasus and Balkans. In the Caucasus, I believe they would be starting from a point further north, or a less consolidated region.

 

[alexmilman]

Well, we would have to consider what alternatives to the 1878 solutions they would have, in both relevant areas, the Caucasus and Balkans. In the Caucasus, I believe they would be starting from a point further north, or a less consolidated region.

For all practical purposes most of what ended up as the Russian Caucasus was dependent upon OE mostly in the Ottoman imagination. The Circassian areas acknowledged authority of the Caliph but not a Sultan (even if this was the same person) and the Ottomans held some coastal cities. Russia formally had a foothold in a part of the modern Georgia while the Northern Caucasus was still on its own. So, comparing to 1877, as you said, the conquest would go from further North. OTOH, in 1877 there were not too many parts of the “Russian Caucasus” to be conquered: Russia got just Batum region.

On the Balkans I simply don’t want to speculate what the realistic plans could be. Relations with Nappy still had been bad and AI was not some kind of an innocent victim: he was quite confrontational. So this issue, short of the fundamental political changes, would remain and so would considerations regarding the Balkans: probably maintenance of the arrangements regarding the Danubian Principalities and some modest land grab, as in OTL, would be more plausible than “Drang Nach Balkans” 😉 But this is just my opinion.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Hey guys. I am currently writing a TL where Napoleon didn't make his two big blunders (The Peninsular War and the Invasion of Russia). I found an older post concerning what would happen if the Ottoman Empire collapsed due to the Palace Coups of 1807-1808. My main question is if Mahmud II is killed and no successful claimant (or puppet) is able to keep the throne, how would the Great Powers react?

Personally, I believe that Austria and Russia would have a field day partitioning the Balkans but the intervention of Britain and France would ensure a neutral power like Greece is placed in charge of the Bosporus and Dardanelles. What do you guys think?

Well the most realistic way I can find the Ottoman Empire collapse if they had no central leader would be a civil war between the governors of the provinces which would rally with someone who has a claim on the throne therefore ending in a civil war.
The Great Powers of Europe would support the various pretendants, the Russians and Austria might try to invade certain parts of the Empire(Austria would try to occupy Bosnia and Serbia, Russia would probably go on total war and would avoid escalation with Napoleon for the moment), the Romanian principalities would try to revolt probably with Russian help.
Edit: the Austrians wouldn't do anything as they were too nerfed by Napoleon

 

[Whiteshore]

What about the Arab regions of the Ottoman Empire, especially with the rise of both Muhammad Ali (no, not the boxer) and the First Saudi State during this period? How would the major powers (largely Britain and France, but yeah) handle the situation?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

What about the Arab regions of the Ottoman Empire, especially with the rise of both Muhammad Ali (no, not the boxer) and the First Saudi State during this period? How would the major powers (largely Britain and France, but yeah) handle the situation?

Arab regions of the Empire cannot influence the ongoing civil war as they are too weak. Britain and France were busy fighting each other in the Peninsula War and in the wider context of the Napoleonic Wars both didn't have the resources to spare to intervene in this Ottomans mess, the ones who would intervene are the Russians and the Christian minorities of the Empire supported by Russia