Great Power in a world of Superpowers

[Not James Stockdale]

The seven Great Powers (by varying definitions) in the 1930s were the United States, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany, Soviet Union, and Japan. Of these, the US and the USSR came into the 1950s as superpowers while the others were hobbled to varying degrees by the devastation of the war. Suppose a country with a pre-war GDP equivalent to France or Japan (perhaps 125% of Italy, 70% of the UK, USSR, and Germany, and 30% of the USA) survived the war with its economy intact and optimistically as well-positioned as the US as a result of wartime investments.

How could such a country's indicators of Cold War hard power - nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, space launch capability, etc - compare to the superpowers and to other countries like the UK, China, and France (the other UNSC seats) that built and retained such capabilities after WWII? I would tend to presume that such a country would attempt to plot an economic and political course independent of the two superpowers, as the Chinese did the instant they thought they wouldn't get rolled over if the Soviets invaded (4 years after first nuclear test, 1 year after hydrogen bomb test), or the French, who tacitly aligned with the rest of NATO against the Soviet Union in Europe but otherwise acted quite independently of the US elsewhere.

 

[Alexniko]

The seven Great Powers (by varying definitions) in the 1930s were the United States, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Germany, Soviet Union, and Japan. Of these, the US and the USSR came into the 1950s as superpowers while the others were hobbled to varying degrees by the devastation of the war. Suppose a country with a pre-war GDP equivalent to France or Japan (perhaps 125% of Italy, 70% of the UK, USSR, and Germany, and 30% of the USA) survived the war with its economy intact and optimistically as well-positioned as the US as a result of wartime investments.

How could such a country's indicators of Cold War hard power - nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, space launch capability, etc - compare to the superpowers and to other countries like the UK, China, and France (the other UNSC seats) that built and retained such capabilities after WWII? I would tend to presume that such a country would attempt to plot an economic and political course independent of the two superpowers, as the Chinese did the instant they thought they wouldn't get rolled over if the Soviets invaded (4 years after first nuclear test, 1 year after hydrogen bomb test), or the French, who tacitly aligned with the rest of NATO against the Soviet Union in Europe but otherwise acted quite independently of the US elsewhere.

Uh ... which country do you have in mind? The national context is very important when it comes to your question. Furthermore, there just was no country outside of the five great powers you named that would fit these criterias. Maybe an Imperial Japan that doesn't invade China in 1937 could do, but it's GDP would still be significantly lower than 125% of Italy and 75% of the UK. Furthermore it would butterfly the Pacific War and thus all of WW2 as we know it.

 

[AltoRegnant]

I feel like the best bet would be for France to hold and it is Russia that invades Germany. WW2 was not a war in the business of making great powers, but one to tear them down, so its likely no rising star could really benefit. France would gain more from the war and would likely be able to hold onto her empire abroad. As a power who actually survived the war they'd then be able to take land from Germany, as well as extracting reparations.
even with this, France isn't in the dominant position of the US or USSR, but is able to tell both of them to piss off if need be. I could see something of an American-Franco split that roughly parralels the sino-soviets

 

[spectrum]

An Argentina or Brazil that had better luck with leadership at the turn of the century could be a candidate. Canada Or Australia with bigger migration in the 19th century perhaps. An undivided India could potentially look like China did for most of the Cold War - not a superpower but powerful enough to sway most arguments.
In regards to what a great powers military looks like geography is key. Got land borders with another powerful nation - the army will be larg. In the tropics - light infantry everywhere. Island nation -you need ships and marines.
On the same boat how is your GDP per person ? Large GDP per capita - get some fancy stuff like latest gen planes and munitions. Small GDP per person but large population - quantity has a quality of its own.

 

[Tjakari]

If we're talking about demographic powerhouses, I do think Indonesia bares some mention as a potential power with the right management?

 

[DocJamore]

A united Arab state could leverage its oil wealth and population growth to become a Great Power even in the Cold War. Of course, the context of how such a State could come about matters, and the earlier the PoD the better, but I think it could be a World Power easily given how influential Saudi Arabia is just by itself in OTL.

 

[Dominic]

It is difficult to come up with any candidates other than Japan, unless WW2 is averted entirely and not just the Pacific War. Britain, France, and Italy are just way too small to compete with the OTL Cold War Great Powers, while China, India, and other demographically/geographically large nations lack the industrialisation/development to do so during that timeframe.

 

[Tjakari]

What about a functioning and expansive Arab nation state?

A pan-Arab state could pull off the sort of development it'd need to be a contender. Provided there's competent, economically savvy government.

 

[Avrorrange]

Anglo-French union.

 

[Not James Stockdale]

Uh ... which country do you have in mind? The national context is very important when it comes to your question. Furthermore, there just was no country outside of the five great powers you named that would fit these criterias. Maybe an Imperial Japan that doesn't invade China in 1937 could do, but it's GDP would still be significantly lower than 125% of Italy and 75% of the UK. Furthermore it would butterfly the Pacific War and thus all of WW2 as we know it.

I wanted to keep it as general as possible because there are a whole host of possible TLs that could lead to a situation like this. Maybe Germany or Japan has an internal military coup in 1943 or 1944 and the heaviest bombing and fighting in the last years of the war are avoided. Maybe the Sickle Cut fails and Britain and France win the war in two years with significantly lower economic expenditure. You could go even farther back, like a surviving Austria-Hungary or German Empire, but the goal is basically a large country that isn't stuck in a "rebuilding" phase in the late 1940s and the 1950s.

An Argentina or Brazil that had better luck with leadership at the turn of the century could be a candidate. Canada Or Australia with bigger migration in the 19th century perhaps. An undivided India could potentially look like China did for most of the Cold War - not a superpower but powerful enough to sway most arguments.
In regards to what a great powers military looks like geography is key. Got land borders with another powerful nation - the army will be larg. In the tropics - light infantry everywhere. Island nation -you need ships and marines.
On the same boat how is your GDP per person ? Large GDP per capita - get some fancy stuff like latest gen planes and munitions. Small GDP per person but large population - quantity has a quality of its own.

My preference for the discussion would be developed rather than developing nations. While I think it would be possible for countries like Argentina, Brazil, or Sweden (for example) to put together a small nuclear program (like South Africa) as an ultimate deterrent against regional enemies, I'm more interested in the kind of country that could have, in the 1970s and 1980s, afforded to spend a billion or more dollars per year on a human spaceflight program.

It is difficult to come up with any candidates other than Japan, unless WW2 is averted entirely and not just the Pacific War. Britain, France, and Italy are just way too small to compete with the OTL Cold War Great Powers, while China, India, and other demographically/geographically large nations lack the industrialisation/development to do so during that timeframe.

Right now, Japan is probably the country that would be closest to becoming the next (fourth) spacefaring state. They have the technical ability but not the funding, or a good reason, frankly. They have had ICBMs in all but name (the Mu family of solid-fueled carrier rockets) since the 1970s. They have built dozens of submarines since the late 1950s and have operated nuclear power plants since the 1960s. My basic thinking is that, had they not been devastated by the war and then hobbled by post-war restrictions and distractions, the Japanese, rather than the Chinese, could have been the third country to put a man in space if they had decided to pursue such a course, and I think they could have done it before the end of the Cold War. I think any of the Great Powers in Europe (Britain, France, and Germany) could have had that option had they entered the period of superpower competition in better political and economic shape - the Germans might have the easiest route (technically and financially speaking) but the French would be most likely to pursue such an investment.