Gold Democrats and Silver Populists in the 1896 U.S. Presidential Election

[Emperor Julian]

The Gold Standard vs. Bimetallism in Chicago

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It was the 1896 Democratic National Convention in Chicago. The convention was divided over a key issue: should the Gold Standard be kept, or should Free Silver be implemented? The incumbent Democratic President, Grover Cleveland, was called a "Bourbon Democrat", a conservative, and a strong supporter of the Gold Standard. As the speeches debating the currency issue began, the Silverites looked to be in dire straights. Senator and former Governor Benjamin "Pitchfork Ben" Tillman of South Carolina had given a speech in favor of silver, but his statements within the speech in favor of southern sectionalism had turned off many Democrats from the rest of the nation. Senator David Hill's speech in favor of gold standard had been well-received. William Vilas of Wisconsin had made an error in defending Cleveland, but William E. Russell, the next proponent, might be able to regain the audience by a rousing pro-gold speech.

William Jennings Bryan sat in the audience, watching as Russel prepared to speak. Knowing he needed to give a strong speech in favor of silver, without coming across as a sensationalist like Tillman, he had prepared the Cross of Gold Speech. The speech would be a rousing one, that would surely give the Silverites control of the convention and most likely give Bryan the nomination. Bryan was still nervous, however. He ate a sandwich to calm his nerves as Russell began to speak.

Russel giving his speech
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Russell's speech would afterwards be described as a great speech. Russel was in good health and managed to deliver his speech very well. With such a great speech being delivered for the Gold Democrats, and the Silverites having only Tillman's southern speech in their favor, things were looking really bad for the Silver Democrats. Bryan was even more nervous, knowing that his speech would be all the more important. In his anxiety he took one bite of his sandwich too fast and began to choke. Bryan and his friends managed to dislodge the piece of food from his throat, just in time for his speech.

William J. Bryan's Cross of Gold speech was a disaster. He coughed numerous times throughout due to his irritated throat, and was unable to project his voice very loudly. Shaken by his choking and by the knowledge that he was failing to deliver the speech correctly, Bryan began to make silly mistakes, omitting words and saying the same thing twice. His grand finale failed as he coughed after the word "crucify", preventing the audience from hearing "cross of gold". As Bryan walked away from the stage to limited applause, he knew that he had failed the Democrats.

William Jennings Bryan
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The Democratic Convention would vote to keep the Gold Standard on the Democratic Platform. The next day, the Democratic Party chose William Eustis Russell to be its eighteenth presidential nominee, with fellow Gold Democrat John Palmer as his running mate. Bryan, a loyal Democrat to the core, sadly endorsed the Russell/Palmer ticket and refused the Populist nomination when offered to him. The Populists, considering Russell to be little better than McKinley, chose to nominate their own candidate, choosing Senator James H. Kyle of South Dakota as their presidential nominee with Representative John Calhoun Bell of Colorado as their Vice Presidential nominee. Two groups, known as the "Silver Democrats" and "Silver Republicans" would also back the Kyle/Bell ticket.

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So, the POD is a Russel who is not a week from death, but it young and healthy and capable of giving a good speech. With Bryan choking on his sandwich that he ate but didn't choke on during the speech in OTL, he fails to deliver a rousing speech and Russel wins the nomination. This has prevented the Democratic-Populist union on 1896, with both candidates now running separately.

As for how the election will go, I think that McKinley will still end up as President. Kyle will probably gain the western Rocky Mountain states that went to Bryan in OTL, because that was the Populist stronghold and a major area of silver mining, as well as the Great Plains states. However, I can't see him taking much support from McKinley, because any Republican opposed to him would have joined the Silver Party in OTL. The Democrats would be divided, with most of their support in the west and Great Plains going to Kyle. They'll probably still take the south though. I imagine that most Democrats who were so strongly opposed to the Silverites in OTL would have backed the Gold Democrats, not the Republicans, so McKinley would probably lose barely any votes because of that. So, is this prediction of a McKinley victory correct?

 

[Emperor Julian]

Map of possible results:

Blue-Republicans (312/447 electoral votes)
Red-Democrats (112/447 electoral votes)
Green-Populists (23/447 electoral votes)

 

[Emperor Julian]

The General Election Results
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1896 was a good year for the Republican Party. William McKinley, former Governor of Ohio, had won the Republican nomination easily. His running mate was Garret Hobart, a popular lawyer and Speaker of the New Jersey General Assembly and President of the New Jersey Senate. McKinley ran an unconventional "front porch" campaign, where voters would travel to his home to listen to him there. With the Populists dividing much of the Democratic vote, with a very unpopular Democratic president presiding over an economic meltdown, and with the skilled campaign run by Mark Hanna, the Republicans had a strong advantage. Hanna had succeeded in raising tremendous levels of money, which the fewer wealthy supporters of Russell and the generally poorer supporters of Kyle simply could not match. In the end, McKinley would win just over half of the popular vote in the election. If a populist had headed the Democratic ticket, he might have gotten a little more, but he still had a majority. This popular vote win translated to a landslide in the electoral college. McKinley swept the Northeast and Midwest, and took the Upper South from the Democrats. With 329 out of 447 electoral votes, well over the 224 needed for victory, McKinley had easily won.

Republican William McKinley
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The Democrats and Populists had been beaten badly in the presidential race, though really, only the Democrats had reason to be upset. With 17.8% of the popular vote, James Kyle had more than doubled the Populists' total in 1892 with James Weaver. His 41 electoral votes almost doubled Weaver's as well. The Populists had swept the mountain states, winning easy victories in all of them. They had also won in Kyle's home state of South Dakota and fellow plains states of Nebraska and Kansas The Populists had barely lost North Dakota, and probably would have won Alabama if not for various fraud by the Democratic officials. The Democrats had lost everywhere but the Lower South, winning only about 30.8% of the popular vote and 77 electoral votes. It was the worst performance for the Democrats since their party had been split apart in 1960. Various smaller parties had also ran, including two Prohibition parties and a socialist one, none of which got more than one percent of the vote. The Democrats could be satisfied in their gains in the US House of Representatives, where they had gained 29 seats, bringing their grand total up to 124. The Populists won 18 new seats, plus the allegiance of the one member of the Silver Party in Congress, giving them 28 votes in the House of Representatives. The Republicans still retained control of the body, however,with 203 seats in the house. The Senate was divided, with 44 Republicans, 34 Democrats, and 12 Populists, many of which had formerly been silver Democrats or Republicans

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Democrat William Russell ----- -------Populist James Kyle
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Map of election results:

In the end, I decided to give the Populists Kansas (which they won in 1892) and Nebraska (which they had lost by a mere 100 votes) as well. I fixed to to take into account Plumber's suggestion.

 

[Plumber]

Bryan was the only thing that kept the Democrats from being landslided, I would say McKinley had a shot of taking the Upper South.

 

[Emperor Julian]

Bryan was the only thing that kept the Democrats from being landslided, I would say McKinley had a shot of taking the Upper South.

I changed it to give them Tennessee, Virginia, and North Carolina, as those three were fairly close.

 

[Emperor Julian]

In order to make the thread more colorful, I added various pictures of the candidates.

I also made graphs of various results, but they were obnoxiously large so I'll link them here instead:

Popular Vote
Electoral Vote
Senate
House of Representatives

 

[Emperor Julian]

The Road to War

McKinley's presidency proceeded much like it would have if the Silver Democrats had triumphed. McKinley had picked a rather poor cabinet, particularly the senile Senator John Sherman of Ohio as Secretary of State. However, McKinley was a competent president, and Vice President Hobart was known to be a good adviser. McKinley initially focused upon domestic reforms, such as increasing tariffs. He stated that he would be fine with bimetallism if the European nations and other powerful economies all entered into tariff agreements with the United States. The failure to negotiate any such agreements prevented the rise of bimetallism, with the Populists being the only large political party taking a stand on the issue. With the cooperation of the Gold Democrats who dominated the Democratic Party, McKinley signed into law the Reaffirmation of the Gold Standard, using a golden pen to do so. The joint domination of the Republicans and Democrats in both Houses of Congress made McKinley's home agenda unstoppable.

Pro-McKinley Poster showing him standing upon the Gold Standard

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However, the focus of the nation's attention was not upon its currency, or anything else in the borders of the United States. The story of the day was the Cuban war against Spain. The Cubans had been revolting on and off for several decades, and recently publishers such as William Randolf Hearst and Joseph Pulitzer had roused public opinion in favor of the US liberating Cuba from Spanish rule. Furthermore, many businessmen, knowing their interests in Cuba would be at risk if the conflict continued, urged the US government to intervene once and for all. However, McKinley did not want to go to war with Cuba, and sought as long as he could to end the conflict through negotiations. He managed to convince the Spanish government to give the Cubans a limited amount of autonomy.

Unfortunately, within two weeks of the autonomy, disaster struck US-Spanish relations. A riot broke out in Havana, which quickly went out of control. A groups of Cubans broke into the United States Consulate during the chaos, and killed Consul Fitzhugh Lee and the other staff there. The Spanish government officially blamed the rebels for the action, while many in the United States believed it to be an assassination carried out by the Spanish rulers of Cuba. In later years, scholars would conclude that the attack on the consulate had most likely been carried out by a group of criminals looking for a place to rob during the chaos of the riots. In 1898, however, many Americans were demanding justice from Cuba, and believed that the Spanish rule was being deliberately slow in their investigation (despite the fact that the Spanish had no evidence to find the killers due to the wreckage throughout the city). McKinley was pressured, by newspapers, congressmen, and popular opinion, to send several US ships to blockade Havana. He stated that the blockade would continue until the Spanish government took responsibility for the death of Fitzhugh Lee. After merely four days, however, a small Cuban boat, trying to run the blockade, came into conflict with one of the ships. The American ship in question, the USS Maine, exploded just as it engaged the blockade runner. In modern times, the opinion is that the explosion came from a defect in the engine from its construction in 1889. However, at the time, popular opinion declared that the explosion was caused by the Spanish, with the blockade runner being the diversion. As soon as the US Congress heard that the ship had been destroyed while confronting a Cuban vessel, they declared war upon Spain.

Fitzhugh Lee, whose tragic death led to the war

The war was incredibly popular among the American public, in no small part due to the bias of major newspaper publishers. Enormous amounts of volunteers arrived to fight in the first US war since the Civil War. Several prominent politicians volunteered to fight in the war, such as former Congressman William Jennings Bryan of Nebraska, and Assistant Secretary of the Navy Theodore Roosevelt, both of whom arrived successfully in Cuba. The Spanish-American war had begun.
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[Emperor Julian]

I will update this sometime over the next few days.

 

[Emperor Julian]

The Spanish-American War

The mobilization of the US army had been successful, with hundreds of thousands of volunteers showing up for the popular war. Cries to avenge the killed sailors in the Havana confrontation, as well as Consul Lee, were heard throughout the nation. The navy had already been prepared, partially due to the preparations of Assistant Secretary of the Navy and supporter of war Theodore Roosevelt, and many ships sailed to Cuba. Another front in the war was opened up in the West Pacific, where the Spanish colony of the Philippines was seen as a prime target for the United States. Commodore George Dewey and the modernized US Navy easily crushed the decrepit and outdated Spanish fleet in the Pacific. The Spanish resistance would be weak for much of the war, against the combined US and Philippines rebels. However, as the Spanish were driven out, many of the rebels began to fear that the US would swoop in and take the Philippines for their own.

The US Navy victorious

The American invasion of Cuba followed the OTL American plan. The US forces landed in Daiquiri and Saboney under the command of General William Shafter, and proceeded to use old Civil War tactics against the Cubans. Although successful at first, the tactics eventually began to fail, and the leaders realized that they needed a new strategy to win the war. The Spanish were able to use guerrilla tactics adopted from the various anti-Spain rebels, as well as almost smokeless guns, to prevent the Americans from being able to pinpoint their locations and launch a full-out attack. The United States still possessed the numbers advantage, however, and began to march towards the village of El Caney, near the large Cuban city of Santiago. The assault on El Caney, and the nearby San Juan Hill, fell upon a diverse group of American soldiers, ranging from the Rough Riders under Roosevelt's command, to all of the black American soldiers, to a collection of Cuban rebels, and a collection of militia regiments from the states of North Carolina, Massachusetts, and Nebraska. If the village and hill were taken, the US forces would be able to attack the city of Santiago, which could be a major city.
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[Japhy]

Interesting so far, though I don't have much to say at the moment, except that I will be following this.

 

[Emperor Julian]

Interesting so far, though I don't have much to say at the moment, except that I will be following this.

Not much has changed from OTL as of yet, a separate populist party in 1896 couldn't effect much I feel. In the next post, there will be an event that will start causing some major changes.

 

[Japhy]

Not much has changed from OTL as of yet, a separate populist party in 1896 couldn't effect much I feel. In the next post, there will be an event that will start causing some major changes.

Certainly this is the case, and while Bryan himself being sidelined for a few more years is prominent, there is plenty of fertile ground for change to come with this. Long term the Democratic party for one is in a very different position.

 

[Emperor Julian]

The Battle of San Juan Hill

In order to attack Santiago, the San Juan Heights had to be stormed by the Americans. As the battle began, the American troops clearly held the advantage. The US forces managed to seize most of the heights, albeit with many casualties. Among the casualties were Lt. Ord and several other commanders. Despite gaining most of the hills, the American position was still vulnerable. The Spanish still held Kettle Hill, and the Americans needed to take it if they wanted to be able to carry out their attack upon Santiago.

Three divisions were to attack Kettle Hill. One of these, the 1st Volunteer Calvary, known also as the Rough Riders, was headed by Theodore Roosevelt. They were an eclectic group, headed by an energetic and popular leader. Another group was the 10th Calvary "Buffalo Soldiers", a group of black American soldiers who had fought in the war despite discrimination at home. The final division was a Nebraska militia regiment, headed by Colonel William Jennings Bryan. Bryan was popular amongst his men, many of whom shared his political beliefs (if not his loyalties, as they were primarily Populists). These three groups attacked Kettle Hill simultaneously.

Colonel Theodore Roosevelt
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Covered by Gatling guns, the Rough Riders, Nebraskan Militiamen, and the Buffalo Soldiers' attack seemed to be going well They were exposed to fire from Spanish soldiers, but very few of them were hit, as the Spanish could not get many shots off due to the American Gatling fire. Things were looking good for the American forces, and Roosevelt was confident that victory was in grasp. Then, tragedy struck. One of the few Spanish bullets fired hit Theodore Roosevelt in the chest. Roosevelt collapsed to the ground, blood rushing out of his wound. Fellow Colonel William J. Bryan, who was nearby, was among the men to rush to the dying Roosevelt's side. Unable to speak due to the blood in his lungs, Roosevelt mouthed his last words: "Keep fighting". Roosevelt then lost consciousness, and would never awaken again.

The majority of the troops were unaware of the great loss. Colonel Bryan was the highest ranked white officer remaining, and he knew that if the United States was to win this battle, Roosevelt's final command had to be followed out. Bryan shouted to his fellow officers to press on, in the name of freedom. Many Rough Riders fought all the harder, to avenge their fallen leader. During the brutal fighting, the Spanish retreated, giving the US forces control of Kettle Hill. Cheers rang out from many men as the Stars and Stripes was raised above the hill, even as they mourned Roosevelt and their other fellow soldiers who had lost their lives.

Colonel William Jennings Bryan would thereafter be known as the Hero of San Juan Hill.
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[Japhy]

VERY Interesting. You've just removed the primary means for the Progressive movement to come to office. The fact that the Populist movement is now empowered much more then IOTL really will transform American politics. Being as at the end of the day the two movements are vastly different.

And of course the stage is now set, Bryan the war hero against Russell the established candidate. Two young faces for a new century. The 1900 election is going to be very interesting, primary fight and general campaign.

 

[Russian Sailor]

Even though you described William Jennings Bryan as a loyal democrat. If he went and joined the populist party, or just fought an insurgent campaign within the Democrat part.......!

Without Roosevelt and the progressive movement it will be interesting to see where big business will turn to, to stop the rising tide of radicalism in U.S. electoral politics.....

 

[Emperor Julian]

VERY Interesting. You've just removed the primary means for the Progressive movement to come to office. The fact that the Populist movement is now empowered much more then IOTL really will transform American politics. Being as at the end of the day the two movements are vastly different.

And of course the stage is now set, Bryan the war hero against Russell the established candidate. Two young faces for a new century. The 1900 election is going to be very interesting, primary fight and general campaign.

So you think Russell is still the number one Gold/Bourbon Democrat guy? He is still fairly young and significant, but he did lose 1896 pretty badly. I don't know who else to use though, maybe Adlai Stevenson?

Even though you described William Jennings Bryan as a loyal democrat. If he went and joined the populist party, or just fought an insurgent campaign within the Democrat part.......!

Without Roosevelt and the progressive movement it will be interesting to see where big business will turn to, to stop the rising tide of radicalism in U.S. electoral politics.....

Bryan'll face an uphill battle for the Democratic nomination against a party controlled by his enemies and with many of his supporters having gone to the Populists. Anyone who isn't a major war hero and a very good speaker like Bryan would have no chance.

 

[Japhy]

So you think Russell is still the number one Gold/Bourbon Democrat guy? He is still fairly young and significant, but he did lose 1896 pretty badly. I don't know who else to use though, maybe Adlai Stevenson?

The Democratic Party just nominated the same man three times in a row, IOTL 1896 represented a 3 out of 4 run by another candidate. That on its own makes Russell a continually viable figure, even if he isn't the establishment's man in 1900, he can come back in 1904 without much harm. And Russell had a level of charisma that alot of the rest of the Golds were lacking. If you're looking for someone else though, William F. Vilas would probably make a move in this version of 1900.

Bryan'll face an uphill battle for the Democratic nomination against a party controlled by his enemies and with many of his supporters having gone to the Populists. Anyone who isn't a major war hero and a very good speaker like Bryan would have no chance.

Thats true, but the same was true IOTL 1896, and after this timeline's version of that election the Moderates will probably be much more interested in Fusion as a means to restore the Solid South and expand outwards. With the death of Richard P. Bland in 1899, and with the credibility the war gives him (And he's probably still in Congress, he'd have taken a nomination for his seat in 1896 without the Democratic nomination, so more bonus points for him there.)

Even though you described William Jennings Bryan as a loyal democrat.

He was a loyal democrat, his disloyalty was to any ideals that might not be useful for him later.

 

[Emperor Julian]

Post-War American Politics

The War with Spain had been won; the Philippines, Cuba, and Puerto Rico would probably be given to the United States. Cuba was on a path towards independence, and Puerto Rico was generally ignored. The main debate was whether or not the Philippines should become independent, or remain a colony of the United States. Many who had supported the war were strongly opposed to keeping the Philippines as a colony. Even the famed war hero Colonel Bryan did not back the annexation of the Philippines. The debate was hotly contested within the Republican and Democratic parties, while the Populists were generally opposed.

Despite the issues with the aftermath of the war, McKinley's popularity remained incredibly high. The short war and the easy victory were popular; he had apparently saved the American economy at the same time. Which ever side on the Philippine issue McKinley chose would have a powerful ally in the White House. The exact details of the treaty with Spain had yet to be worked out, but with his Vice President Hobart working with the Senate, McKinley would be sure to get the result that he desired. Most people continued to support the President, save for black voters, whose enthusiasm had waned when it became apparent that McKinley would do nothing against the rising evil of segregation.

The 1898 Congressional Elections reflected the strong approval towards the Republican president. The Republicans easily defended their large majority, despite losing a fair number of seats to the Democrats. The Populist Party gained two seats in the House, with their total number now being 24. The Republicans retained their majority with 182 seats, with the Democrats taking the remaining 151 seats. Among these Democrats was William J. Bryan, whose fame from the war guaranteed him both the Democratic and Populist nominations, and only token Republican opposition. The Senate was a clear Republican victory, with the Republicans going from a mere plurality to having a 54 seat majority. The Populist-Silver coalition retained its twelve seats, and the Democrats were left with the remaining 26 seats. McKinley would retain the congress he needed to get his agenda passed.
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[Van555]

I think the Populists will become the second party here...

 

[Emperor Julian]

Posting to prevent this from being buried, I'll update as soon as possible, though school is a really busy recently.