it could be, although I believe that the main effect of this would be the wars with the Sassanids ( who could end earlier or manage to obtain a short period of truce, as was proposed to Tiberius in 577 ) in addition to the terrible management of finances by part of Justin and Tiberius II ( who were forced to dry up even the security fund created by Athanasius ) without forgetting the situation in Italy with the Lombards who in just 3 years easily occupied the main defensive strongholds in the Po Valley, and the Romans could not gather of significant military expeditions for a considerable period of time ( not to mention that those carried out in Otl almost always ended badly for the Romans ) and that the policies of using personnel from the East in the local administration further alienated the relationship between the " liberated " Latin populations and Constantinople ( since they saw their cities devastated, they had to bear an immense fiscal burden, lack of serious public renovation works, a poorly organized defense of their territory, conflicts between the imperial court and the Papacy, a linguistic gap and cultural that begins to solidify, and finally, in the long term, seeing oneself treated as second-class citizens or worse as barbarians ) in short, Maurice's reforms arrived almost too late and thus made them ineffective ( furthermore they were seen as a sop by the Italian population ) but this could change with a series of different emperors compared to Otl, making the socio-political development of the peninsula very different, furthermore it cannot be ruled out that more competent emperors would try to play with the idea soon discarded by Maurice in Otl, to create a similar exarchate also in Septimania or Provence ( considering that at least until around 640 the Romans controlled Liguria and especially Genoa, it would be quite feasible arrange a shipment from there ) , dividing the territories in the hands of the Visigoths or their own brothers with the Merovingian kings