So suppose that the French and Spanish are able to make peace at Westphalia in 1648 more or less along the lines of what was worked out in 1659 with the Peace of the Pyrenees (the terms under discussion in '48 weren't too far off from what they agreed to in '59 though generally less favorable to Spain). How would this impact France's position vis a vis England in the following decade? I'm curious because I've been doing some research recently on Spain in the mid 17th century but England has always been a blind spot for me but in this scenario it stands to be greatly impacted by events on the continent.
I believe that some version of the Fronde will still happen in France though without the ongoing war it will certainly play out differently. Would any of the frondeurs consider going into exile in England and would the English even allow them in? Spain doesn't seem like an option as I don't think Spain would be willing to host them just after making peace with France. And without the strategic imperatives of the continued war with Spain I don't think Mazarin would make the deal he made OTL with Cromwell. Would the French continue to support the Stuarts? Would there be serious risk of war, perhaps in alliance with the Dutch, against the English? If there was a war would French objectives include the restoration of the Stuarts or just the humbling of the Commonwealth?
France continued fighting the Spanish for 11 years OTL so it has the resources to wage a protracted war with England if necessary though it's ability to project power on the oceans and to invade England itself would likely be more limited that its ability to fight Spain in Catalonia, the Netherlands or Italy was OTL. Though the French did launch successful amphibious assaults in the Mediterranean against posts in Spanish Italy. And a Peace in '48 very likely hands Dunkirk to the French giving them a prominent North Sea base. I assume the protestant republican Commonwealth would fight an absolutist Catholic French invader to the death. What would be England's capability to resist such an invasion or to fight a long protracted war? In other words, would a French attack on England be successful or would it end in failure along the lines of the French expedition to Naples in '47 and '48?
I suppose this also raises the question of whether butterflies mean William II lives longer, since that's such a huge variable in this equation I suppose there's probably a whole different scenario in which the French and Spanish make peace and William II lives as that shifts Dutch politics dramatically during the period in question and they're the third side of this geopolitical triangle. I suppose it's also worth considering what the Spanish position would be as well. Spain would still be distracted with the war in Portugal so would England still seek to take advantage of Spain's weakness with an attack against Spanish America without an alliance with France?
I believe that some version of the Fronde will still happen in France though without the ongoing war it will certainly play out differently. Would any of the frondeurs consider going into exile in England and would the English even allow them in? Spain doesn't seem like an option as I don't think Spain would be willing to host them just after making peace with France. And without the strategic imperatives of the continued war with Spain I don't think Mazarin would make the deal he made OTL with Cromwell. Would the French continue to support the Stuarts? Would there be serious risk of war, perhaps in alliance with the Dutch, against the English? If there was a war would French objectives include the restoration of the Stuarts or just the humbling of the Commonwealth?
France continued fighting the Spanish for 11 years OTL so it has the resources to wage a protracted war with England if necessary though it's ability to project power on the oceans and to invade England itself would likely be more limited that its ability to fight Spain in Catalonia, the Netherlands or Italy was OTL. Though the French did launch successful amphibious assaults in the Mediterranean against posts in Spanish Italy. And a Peace in '48 very likely hands Dunkirk to the French giving them a prominent North Sea base. I assume the protestant republican Commonwealth would fight an absolutist Catholic French invader to the death. What would be England's capability to resist such an invasion or to fight a long protracted war? In other words, would a French attack on England be successful or would it end in failure along the lines of the French expedition to Naples in '47 and '48?
I suppose this also raises the question of whether butterflies mean William II lives longer, since that's such a huge variable in this equation I suppose there's probably a whole different scenario in which the French and Spanish make peace and William II lives as that shifts Dutch politics dramatically during the period in question and they're the third side of this geopolitical triangle. I suppose it's also worth considering what the Spanish position would be as well. Spain would still be distracted with the war in Portugal so would England still seek to take advantage of Spain's weakness with an attack against Spanish America without an alliance with France?