Fortress Holland in a France still falls scenario?

[Colonel Grubb]

Happy to be pointed to any existing threads on this if there are any.

I think you could probably make a case for only carrying out the Eben Emael attack - as a gliderborne coup-de-main it's very different from the other airborne attacks. Problem is without them the Dutch probably get the chance to blow the bridges in time and retreat behind the Water Line (things were touch-and-go as it was), meaning that Fortress Holland stays under Dutch control, quite possibly for the duration.
The RN were certainly capable of fighting convoys through to Rotterdam (they would be under land-based, radar-directed fighter cover the entire way), and the Water Line was designed so that it would neutralize the Panzers completely. That has all sorts of nasty butterflies for the Germans - not least the British having a bridgehead across the Rhine only a few miles from one of the biggest ports in the world, undamaged and in friendly hands. The only benefit is that you've got a few more paratroopers available to drop on Kent.

From another thread, but not to derail the other one.

So let's say that this eventuates, that Fortress Holland prevails, but France still falls and the British evacuate most of their forces from France like OTL.

What happens next, and how does the remaining strategic focus of 1940 shift to the Netherlands? The air war would be very different, certainly from the OTL Battle of Britain, but can the Germans crack Fortress Holland, or can the British reinforce it enough?

 

[James G]

The Luftwaffe do their worse. Small area, few defending airfields in such densely populated terrain.
I'd imagine to that the Germans bring in railway guns to batter it all to oblivion.

 

[galileo-034]

The Martyr of Holland then, but bombing is one thing, conquering is another.

Holding onto Netherlands as it keeps away for the time being the threat of an invasion of the Isles, but the big problem is, not to mention that of airfields, that the British army lost much of its equipment in the evacuation of Dunkirk and the Germans just captured French material. In that situation, I guess it's not impossible a determined German assault, even though very costly, could breach the line. The outcome would depend on how much time Hitler waits to attack. Too soon, Germans don't have enough power to breach the line (in that case, I guess that would be the job of paratroopers), as much of their forces are still in France, and they get a huge defeat (and morale boost for Churchill to use and play); too late, and you would see Churchill having made up for the summer losses with American material and new recruits to strengthen the Netherlands.
Either way, Holland is gonna take hit instead of England during the blitz, but that would likely result in a similar aerial defeat or pyrrhic victory at most for Germans.

In the eventuality of Fortress Holland holding into 1941, I mind that Barbarossa would be butterflied, as I don't think he would go after USSR with that dagger on his back.

 

[torten]

The Dutch would be finished by the end of August. The Germans gain total air superiority, and the RAF are very relucant to take resources away from home defence. The Germans are able to bomb the Netherlands to bits, and cross the water line and seize Rotterdam within a few days.

 

[Colonel Grubb]

The Martyr of Holland then, but bombing is one thing, conquering is another.

Holding onto Netherlands as it keeps away for the time being the threat of an invasion of the Isles, but the big problem is, not to mention that of airfields, that the British army lost much of its equipment in the evacuation of Dunkirk and the Germans just captured French material. In that situation, I guess it's not impossible a determined German assault, even though very costly, could breach the line. The outcome would depend on how much time Hitler waits to attack. Too soon, Germans don't have enough power to breach the line (in that case, I guess that would be the job of paratroopers), as much of their forces are still in France, and they get a huge defeat (and morale boost for Churchill to use and play); too late, and you would see Churchill having made up for the summer losses with American material and new recruits to strengthen the Netherlands.
Either way, Holland is gonna take hit instead of England during the blitz, but that would likely result in a similar aerial defeat or pyrrhic victory at most for Germans.

In the eventuality of Fortress Holland holding into 1941, I mind that Barbarossa would be butterflied, as I don't think he would go after USSR with that dagger on his back.

I think you've pretty much hit the nail on the head there.

Certainly the German window would be extremely tight for a successful operation before the end of 1940. Paratroopers outside of a coup de main would be a big risk and with at best contested air superiority, it would be an ugly fight.

There could be a good chance of Goering delaying the German ground response in favour of the Luftwaffe approach - his record would suggest such a thing. Which unfortauntely means Holland is bombed very heavily.

I would suspect that the RN would be running troop and supply convoys in and civilian evacuees out.

It if devolves into a stalemate and siege towards the end of 1940, I think you could still see Barbarossa a major possibility - the British and allies have no means of using Holland to launch an offensive from; at best I think it would chew up resources that would probably go to North Africa and the air war remains intense. A sort of super-Malta/super-Tobruk situation.

I think neither side could achieve strategic surprise on the ground and would be checked quite quickly.

 

[Dageraad]

No

Geographic, Logistic, lopsided odds and morale.

Too small a territory to defend against the full might of the German army. Cities like Utrecht and Rotterdam are already on the frontline. The population of the Netherlands missed out on WW 1 and the violence of modern war was quite a shock to the population. The Dutch will not fight to the last civilian.

The Dutch water line was not that extensive. You can't compare it to the Maginot line.
It did not change the protected part of Holland into an island.

Not enough army to defend with. The Dutch only had 9 divisions in total and not one of these had equipment and training levels anywhere compatible to the average German division. They lasted for four days in real life because:
A: the 18th German army was second rate.
B: the surprise airborne attack partly failed because the Dutch actually fought back. The Germans more or less hoped for them to surrender.
C: the part of the airborne attack that succeeded was stuck for three days because it had the misfortune to come up against the small part of the Dutch armed forces (Marines) that fought well. That lasted but three days, until the tanks and the luftwaffe came.

To make the scenario possible you should
1: Reinfoce the Dutch army by speeding up the rearmament process by a few years. But a much stronger Dutch army could have convinced the Germans not to try invading in the first place. (That in itself is a nice POD)
2: Make the airborne assault an even bigger fiasco. (That is one of the main POD's of the Blunted Sickle scenario)
3: Increase the losses of the Luftwaffe so it won't play a role.
4: Make the Commonwealth commit its reserves and run the risk of leaving the mainland open to attack. (which reserves?)

 

[pdf27]

To make the scenario possible you should
1: Reinfoce the Dutch army by speeding up the rearmament process by a few years. But a much stronger Dutch army could have convinced the Germans not to try invading in the first place. (That in itself is a nice POD)
2: Make the airborne assault an even bigger fiasco. (That is one of the main POD's of the Blunted Sickle scenario)
3: Increase the losses of the Luftwaffe so it won't play a role.
4: Make the Commonwealth commit its reserves and run the risk of leaving the mainland open to attack. (which reserves?)

Not to mention the fact that the Germans are still fighting in France so don't have the troops to commit to taking the Netherlands! The only change to the airborne assault itself in Blunted Sickle is that the bridge over the Hollands Diep is blown rather than captured, since the Dutch aren't expecting French tanks to be coming to their relief over it so don't try to keep it intact. Without that, it's going to rapidly collapse in the way just about every other airborne assault did when cut off from resupply and facing heavier troops (Crete is the only successful example I can think of, and even then the Fallschirmjaegers were mauled so badly they never jumped again).