For the Republic: A History of the Second American Civil War

[mack8]

Very interesting TL, i have yet to read all the chapters but getting there. I'm very curious on the foreign ramifications of the civil war, economical and military. What happens to the naval treaties? Which side is the USN on and what is their status? Presumably the american economy is in tatters so there is no thought of much naval construction. How much the economy crashed, and how long would it take to start recovering after the end of the civil war, whenever that may be? What is happening in Philippines, Hawaii etc? Japan was a major importer of american oil and scrap iron, how are they affected? Presumably they can buy oil from Latin America or NEI since as i understand Long is not selling to them, but scrap iron is more difficult to replace.

How are Italy and Germany affected economically? I understand they enthusiastically support MacArthur presumably with lots of weapons and volunteers, and maybe even a Condor Legion equivalent, but are they better or worse economically?

UK as i understand is badly affected, France would be even worse and imo the american civil war would embolden both the french right and left to make a move, so probably there will be an ever worse turbulent period for France, if not outright civil war?

Imo, this american civil war can be seen as a golden opportunity for Japan to make a move on Philippines and even Hawaii, and USSR on Alaska.

A WW2 in this timelines would look quite a lot different, and one in which the Axis actually has a chance to win.

 

[The Angry Observer]

Good update. There's always some morbid fascination in portraying a society that's crumbling. Very realistic take on the issue within the Regime - I think such problems were almost an universal constant within fascist/authoritarian regimes, especially ones centered around a single figure as savior. Also, gotta say, I love the paralels to the First Civil War. May the new Jayhawkers triumph against Mac's Border Ruffians!

Thanks so much, glad you're liking it so far. New update is coming along smoothly and will easily be done by Saturday. I figured as many parallels to the first war as possible should be made, and it was just too easy with Kansas.

Finally, a question: what's the manpower situation like for the factions? How many people does every faction have in the areas under their control?

I'm not intimately familiar with population data at the time, but the U.S. as a whole would've had around 130 million people in it according to the census. Around a third of those are under direct Natcorp rule. Between 25% and 30% would be in the Republic. The south's population is around 15% according to my math. It gets complicated because of refugees, volunteers, and the fact that the Republicans are fighting far more willingly and enthusiastically than the Natcorps. Natcorp conscription is simply less effective because the regime's main supporters are middle and upper class people that are grateful for money being put back into their pockets and order restored on the streets.

 

[The Angry Observer]

OTOH, there is a small chance that Britain might enter the war in late phase, and in such case MacArthur is fucked.

Most people I've seen commenting here have pretty correct assumptions about how different variables would affect the war. MacArthur's biggest problem is that the main advantages he enjoys, equipment, technology, the military brain trust, will be less effective over time. The Republic will eventually catch up in a lot of these respects if the war keeps grinding on. MacArthur also may have more raw numbers, but conscription gets dicey because the regime's ideology is completely incongruous when it isn't an active hindrance. In the first Civil War, southerners were more excited to fight because they believed they were fighting for their homeland/families. Northerners were fighting to destroy slavery and save America, which is powerful but probably not as powerful psychologically from what I understand. Here that dynamic is inverted. The Republicans are dying to protect their country and democracy while the Natcorps are dying to oust a President a majority of the country voted for anyway because he's in league with the Pope or something.

His backers are a small subset of big business, that installed MacArthur to enrich themselves and prevent the state from taking their money and taking the country off gold. Now MacArthur is saddled with a nation that's fighting this war of unprecedented scale, and he has to win this war off of a pretty strict hard money regime and without taxing the people that have all the money. The longer the war goes on, the bigger of a problem this becomes for him. He does have an advantage, like the comment you replied to said, just in raw resources. The longer the war goes on, the more creative the Republicans will have to get just to have the basics of a functioning society, to say nothing of fueling this huge war machine.

 

[The Angry Observer]

Not so related but this would have made an excellent Star Wars Sequel plot, btw.

Oh, thank you! I'm curious what you mean by that?

 

[The Angry Observer]

Very interesting TL, i have yet to read all the chapters but getting there. I'm very curious on the foreign ramifications of the civil war, economical and military. What happens to the naval treaties? Which side is the USN on and what is their status? Presumably the american economy is in tatters so there is no thought of much naval construction. How much the economy crashed, and how long would it take to start recovering after the end of the civil war, whenever that may be? What is happening in Philippines, Hawaii etc? Japan was a major importer of american oil and scrap iron, how are they affected? Presumably they can buy oil from Latin America or NEI since as i understand Long is not selling to them, but scrap iron is more difficult to replace.

Thanks for reading! The U.S.N. is split around down the middle, which is an important point coming up. Basically all laws for all sides are out the window for the most part just as the war goes on. The economy has, of course, been destroyed by the chaos, but the normal rules are also out the window so you'd see stuff like blatant subsidies of prices from both sides. Philippines we haven't gotten to yet, but the part of the American detachment that chooses to stay will simply rule it autonomously. Same game with Hawaii. As for Japan, the war has ended its colonial ambitions. It just doesn't have the resources to conquer eastern Asia, which will change history a lot.

How are Italy and Germany affected economically? I understand they enthusiastically support MacArthur presumably with lots of weapons and volunteers, and maybe even a Condor Legion equivalent, but are they better or worse economically?

They help him a lot, but they're really not helping him to the point where it's preventing them from pursuing their own imperial projects back across the Atlantic.

UK as i understand is badly affected, France would be even worse and imo the american civil war would embolden both the french right and left to make a move, so probably there will be an ever worse turbulent period for France, if not outright civil war?

Honestly can't say. I haven't done enough research on France. I'm trying to keep the TL mostly insular to America, but that's not really possible. After I finish writing about the war we will cover the situation in Europe, which will of course become World War Two.

A WW2 in this timelines would look quite a lot different, and one in which the Axis actually has a chance to win.

Yes, America would simply be in no position to fight for either side no matter who wins. It would go quite differently. It also means that there's a massive, large-scale conflict between fascism and democracy, which means neither side will be going into World War Two blind.

 

[MonarchistCanuck]

The good news for the Anglo-French is that even without American aid, they have the industrial and manpower advantage over Germany to successfully hold off the Nazi conquest of Europe. It won't be easy and American financial and material aid will be missed, but so long as Sickle Cut isn't repeated like IOTL then the war turns into one of attrition, which plays into allied strengths (throwing bullets and shells at the enemy, rather than men. The lessons of the Great War will have been learned). Now if the UK and France get involved in the SACW that's going to complicate things, especially for Canada as they'll be torn between watching/defending the border and aiding the war in Europe.

Now obviously nothing is guaranteed, France could still fall and Guderian's insane gamble could still pay off, but I would say it's not total gloom and doom for the Wallies with the US in the throes of civil war

 

[NedStark]

Thanks for reading! The U.S.N. is split around down the middle, which is an important point coming up.

I am not sure about that, because the Pacific Fleet is under the West’s control due to their location - while the Atlantic Fleet should be divided. Plus, the big elephant here would be the control over capital ships - if the majority of capital ships are under Republican control then the NatCorp navy is useless.

MacArthur also may have more raw numbers, but conscription gets dicey because the regime's ideology is completely incongruous when it isn't an active hindrance.

His raw resources advantage, other than existing weaponry, is also in doubt, because he would not be able to get the factories in NatCorp-occupied regions in the Republican Midwest to work at maximum capacity while running death camps and suppressing organized labor & resistance at the same time. Plus, due to the nature of his regime, well, he would not be able to find volunteers and have to rely on forced conscription of people with questionable loyalty, as already mentioned before.

 

[Red_Galiray]

Thanks so much, glad you're liking it so far. New update is coming along smoothly and will easily be done by Saturday. I figured as many parallels to the first war as possible should be made, and it was just too easy with Kansas.

I'm not intimately familiar with population data at the time, but the U.S. as a whole would've had around 130 million people in it according to the census. Around a third of those are under direct Natcorp rule. Between 25% and 30% would be in the Republic. The south's population is around 15% according to my math. It gets complicated because of refugees, volunteers, and the fact that the Republicans are fighting far more willingly and enthusiastically than the Natcorps. Natcorp conscription is simply less effective because the regime's main supporters are middle and upper class people that are grateful for money being put back into their pockets and order restored on the streets.

Of course. It both makes it more engaging for us the readers (especially as a fan, so to speak, of the first Civil War) and of course the Americans themselves would be drawing all sorts of parallels to this new conflict. And yes, it makes sense for the Republicans to find it easier to mobilize a larger percentage of their population, given how a people defending their homes tend to be more motivated to remain on the frontlines. To be sure, the Union soldiers during the ACW were likewise motivated because they truly believed that allowing secession would result in the entire US falling to pieces and thus this was a direct threat to their safety and prosperity. But I really can't see the Natcorps being able to mobilize the common under such arguments. Nonetheless, I'm really interested in seeing how this develops because the situation looks dire indeed for the Republicans. They have a good part of the Northeastern industrial base, but they better get those machines humming and retake the Midwest's resources if they wish to maintain the contest. I wonder if Britain or France could do something like lend-lease? An interesting possibility, as others have mentioned, is WWII. They certainly must be unnerved if not terrified of the possibility of a fascist US, given its economic might and how under normal circumstances the US ought to lean against the Nazis. It is in their interest to have a democratic US embittered against the Nazis rather than a fascist US indebted to them.

The good news for the Anglo-French is that even without American aid, they have the industrial and manpower advantage over Germany to successfully hold off the Nazi conquest of Europe. It won't be easy and American financial and material aid will be missed, but so long as Sickle Cut isn't repeated like IOTL then the war turns into one of attrition, which plays into allied strengths (throwing bullets and shells at the enemy, rather than men. The lessons of the Great War will have been learned). Now if the UK and France get involved in the SACW that's going to complicate things, especially for Canada as they'll be torn between watching/defending the border and aiding the war in Europe.

Now obviously nothing is guaranteed, France could still fall and Guderian's insane gamble could still pay off, but I would say it's not total gloom and doom for the Wallies with the US in the throes of civil war

I wonder if the lessons of this war may allow the French to better resist the Nazi's plan? This is certainly proof enough of the importance of armor, but the US is not the Ardennes. And if France falls, a Britain without hope for eventual US assistance may very well give up the struggle.

 

[Fleurs de Merde]

On the other hand, this episode might also soften up the Anglo-French towards Stalin, who IOTL was pushing for anti-German security arrangements at this point. Given Hitler's clearly overplaying his hand here against an established democratic government that's Britain's number one trading partner, this probably paints a target on his back. Add that to the mid-30s being Stalin's period of maximum openness to rapprochement, plus Popular Fronts behaving well in America as well as France, and you might see some room. No America, but a better-prepared USSR that doesn't enable German rearmament through M-R and is less diplomatically isolated- and therefore less erratic - isn't a horrible exchange.

 

[The Angry Observer]

I am not sure about that, because the Pacific Fleet is under the West’s control due to their location - while the Atlantic Fleet should be divided. Plus, the big elephant here would be the control over capital ships - if the majority of capital ships are under Republican control then the NatCorp navy is useless.

The west really isn't in that much of a position to project power across the Pacific. The idea is that the Pacific is mostly neutral, and the fleet is either going to peter to one side's camp or the other. I really can't say much for capital ships just because I simply don't know much about the specific ships, but again, the idea is that it's as even of a split as possible.

His raw resources advantage, other than existing weaponry, is also in doubt, because he would not be able to get the factories in NatCorp-occupied regions in the Republican Midwest to work at maximum capacity while running death camps and suppressing organized labor & resistance at the same time. Plus, due to the nature of his regime, well, he would not be able to find volunteers and have to rely on forced conscription of people with questionable loyalty, as already mentioned before.

Yup. All true. The longer the war goes on the less likely MacArthur is to win it.

 

[The Angry Observer]

And yes, it makes sense for the Republicans to find it easier to mobilize a larger percentage of their population, given how a people defending their homes tend to be more motivated to remain on the frontlines.

Yeah. The Natcorps also have an issue in that their regime depends on giving people prosperity and stability, and harsh, brutal, total war of the kind that's being waged has a way of destroying that.

To be sure, the Union soldiers during the ACW were likewise motivated because they truly believed that allowing secession would result in the entire US falling to pieces and thus this was a direct threat to their safety and prosperity. But I really can't see the Natcorps being able to mobilize the common under such arguments.

You're right, and just for the record my intention was never to downplay the patriotism of Unionists during the ACW, who similar to the Republicans were in the war to protect "government of the people, by the people, for the people". Speaking of which-- I read the last chapter of Until Every Drop Is Paid, I just wanted to let you know how much I enjoyed it! The whole thing is one of my favorite pieces of alternate history I've ever read and I constantly recommend it to people I know. The creative storytelling combined with in-depth historical research was crazy to me. Rewarding as hell to see the Junta get what they deserve and Lincoln take his place as the man that put America on the long, winding path to racial equality.

Nonetheless, I'm really interested in seeing how this develops because the situation looks dire indeed for the Republicans. They have a good part of the Northeastern industrial base, but they better get those machines humming and retake the Midwest's resources if they wish to maintain the contest.

The Republicans have a lot of catch-up to do. They're fighting very much as a rump state and must reconquer a much bigger part of America from a much bigger army, like lots of people have pointed out, and this automatically puts them at a huge disadvantage early on. The disadvantage, I would think though, is bigger than it looks because the Republicans can get that industrial war machine moving if they are creative and diligent enough.

I wonder if Britain or France could do something like lend-lease? An interesting possibility, as others have mentioned, is WWII. They certainly must be unnerved if not terrified of the possibility of a fascist US, given its economic might and how under normal circumstances the US ought to lean against the Nazis. It is in their interest to have a democratic US embittered against the Nazis rather than a fascist US indebted to them.

Britain and France want the Republic to win, I don't see any way that wouldn't be the case. The possibility of MacArthur winning is way too dangerous to their interests. We're constantly talking about what the inevitable confrontation between Britain and Nazi Germany would eventually look like, but what the war changes right off the bat is 1) Britain is much more suspicious of Germany and much more willing to draw hard lines in the sand when dealing with Hitler 2) both sides have had a lot of opportunities to apply lessons from this large scale conflict to their own militaries, which generally works to Britain's favor 3) even in the best case scenario, American aid for the Allies would be much less due to the war's devastation, ditto for the Natcorps winning.

 

[The Angry Observer]

On the other hand, this episode might also soften up the Anglo-French towards Stalin, who IOTL was pushing for anti-German security arrangements at this point. Given Hitler's clearly overplaying his hand here against an established democratic government that's Britain's number one trading partner, this probably paints a target on his back. Add that to the mid-30s being Stalin's period of maximum openness to rapprochement, plus Popular Fronts behaving well in America as well as France, and you might see some room. No America, but a better-prepared USSR that doesn't enable German rearmament through M-R and is less diplomatically isolated- and therefore less erratic - isn't a horrible exchange.

Super good points. Hitler gambled big here in backing MacArthur. Everyone in Europe is now very suspicious of him and I really don't see any reality where he gets away with as much before triggering a war. He is much less likely to be trusted by anyone. I don't think something like Munich could happen in this universe, after everything that the Natcorps and Nazis did in America. It also really puts things into perspective and makes European leaders less likely to see Hitler as a useful idiot for stopping a greater evil like communism.

In short, the attitude expressed in this cartoon isn't gonna last long ITL:

 

[thedarkmaster]

We talking about aid from Germany and Italy for the Natcorps, but is this extra to what Spain got/is getting ?
Which one is priority ?

With less aid to Spain will the nationalists fail and the republic survive?

Will perhaps the spectra of successful Soviet aid to Spain pull back the German aid in North America and vise versa ?

 

[MonarchistCanuck]

I wonder if the lessons of this war may allow the French to better resist the Nazi's plan? This is certainly proof enough of the importance of armor, but the US is not the Ardennes. And if France falls, a Britain without hope for eventual US assistance may very well give up the struggle

Possibly, it depends on what lessons are learned. French and British tanks were actually superior to the Panzer Mk I's and II's, however German tanks all had radios and French tanks relied on flag signals which was a factor that helped the Germans IOTL. It also depends on when WWII starts, Mussolini may be a fascist but he wasn't a fan of Hitler and opposed the Nazis until Anschluss forced him to seek partnership with Germany, even then he only joined the war when it seemed German victory was inevitable and it was good idea so he could get a seat at the peace table. With the British and French possibly re-arming sooner and not pursuing appeasement, he may opt to stay neutral instead.

On the other hand, this episode might also soften up the Anglo-French towards Stalin, who IOTL was pushing for anti-German security arrangements at this point. Given Hitler's clearly overplaying his hand here against an established democratic government that's Britain's number one trading partner, this probably paints a target on his back. Add that to the mid-30s being Stalin's period of maximum openness to rapprochement, plus Popular Fronts behaving well in America as well as France, and you might see some room. No America, but a better-prepared USSR that doesn't enable German rearmament through M-R and is less diplomatically isolated- and therefore less erratic - isn't a horrible exchange.

I wouldn't be so sure, Stalin is still just as opposed to the bourgeois capitalists as he is the fascists, I see Stalin playing both sides and letting them bleed each other out. He is at heart an opportunist as well, he will probably seek to pick off the Baltics and Finland if the opportunity comes. I also think the British and French establishments are going to be eyeing Stalin with just as much suspicion, especially as to his possible intents and plans towards American labour.

 

[GaysInSpace]

We talking about aid from Germany and Italy for the Natcorps, but is this extra to what Spain got/is getting ?
Which one is priority ?

With less aid to Spain will the nationalists fail and the republic survive?

Will perhaps the spectra of successful Soviet aid to Spain pull back the German aid in North America and vise versa ?

This conflict precedes the Spanish Civil War. It’s currently 1935 ITL, and Spain won’t start until 1936. That said, Angry and I have been having extensive discussions about the Spanish Civil War.

 

[Deleted member 191087]

Soooooooo do any other countries aside from Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy recognise the NatCorp state? If there would be any, I could see maybe Chiang Kai-Shek being sympathetic to the NatCorps considering his violently anti-communist personality and so, not that China and the US at this time had that significant of ties with each other, but still just a thought.

Come to think of it actually, with Japan having confirmed to not going to go on war against nearly all of East and Southeast Asia, the Chinese Civil War will look pretty different too won’t it? Have you two thought about this as well?

 

[MxCokoko]

This conflict precedes the Spanish Civil War. It’s currently 1935 ITL, and Spain won’t start until 1936. That said, Angry and I have been having extensive discussions about the Spanish Civil War.

I personally think the Spanish Civil War will lean towards the Republican side. The SACW is much more important for Italy and Germany to focus on, because why the fuck wouldn't you give resources to fund a fascist America instead of a fascist Spain? This probably doesn't change world politics all that much, depending what happens in Republican Spain (will it be a repeat of it's internal politics IRL, with purges of the anarchists, Trotskyists, and the democratic supporters?), but ironically means Italy's going to be worse off since they're sending more guns further away and probably means they delay joining the war or performing even worse. Same with Germany, albeit to probably a lesser extent.

 

[GaysInSpace]

Come to think of it actually, with Japan having confirmed to not going to go on war against nearly all of East and Southeast Asia, the Chinese Civil War will look pretty different too won’t it? Have you two thought about this as well?

Oh, aside from the US, China is the country we’ve discussed the most! Any Kaiserreich fans, cause if so, you guys are gonna love it.

 

[Jord839]

I personally think the Spanish Civil War will lean towards the Republican side. The SACW is much more important for Italy and Germany to focus on, because why the fuck wouldn't you give resources to fund a fascist America instead of a fascist Spain? This probably doesn't change world politics all that much, depending what happens in Republican Spain (will it be a repeat of it's internal politics IRL, with purges of the anarchists, Trotskyists, and the democratic supporters?), but ironically means Italy's going to be worse off since they're sending more guns further away and probably means they delay joining the war or performing even worse. Same with Germany, albeit to probably a lesser extent.

I'd also say on the reverse side, France and the UK are going to be more openly pro-Spanish Republic here, due to the aforementioned greater level of distrust that will grow vis a vis the European fascists as a result of the SACW as well as already having concerns about Stalin getting involved over there, the prospect of either the fascists or the communists getting an open hand in Spain would be a nightmare as far as they're concerned, kind of a domino theory type moment.

I wouldn't even be surprised if some damn fool thing involving Spain itself is what gets the ball rolling for WW2 over on the European theater.

 

[MonarchistCanuck]

Oh, aside from the US, China is the country we’ve discussed the most! Any Kaiserreich fans, cause if so, you guys are gonna love it.

You're bringing back the AOG? Are we going to see the Dogmeat General overcome all obstacles and unite China? Are we going to see the wacky adventures of the Shanqing? Kaiserreich's Chinese factions have always been some of the wackiest additions, I just have so many questions