Flawless Ottoman performance, but the Central Powers still lose

Magnum

So ITTL, the Ottomans do much, much better than OTL, but the CPs still lose the war by late 1918. How does the peace treaty with the Sublime Porte look like, considering the British & French were willing, by one account I read, to have settled for far less than they got OTL if the Turks pushed the issue (which they didn't).

As for the specifics:

- El-Arish, , or at worst the Gaza - Beersheba line, are still in Ottoman hands
- the Suez Canal was raided a couple of times before the Allied forces got too numerous
- some more capital ships were sunk at Galipoli
- no Entente submarines managed to sneak into the Marmara, avoiding those losses
- the evacuation of the Anzac's at Galipoli was seriously contested, and many tens of thousands were taken prisoner
- Sarikamish was a Turkish victory; no Armenian genocide
- Arab revolt utterly crushed
- control over most of Arabia established, Saudis crushed
- Aden temporarily taken at the start of the war, hotly contested afterwards
- oil installations in southern Iran raided and wrecked at the start of the war
- Kuwait taken at the start of the war, only abandoned years later, and now on the verge of falling again after an overextended Allied offensive is crushed (think Siege of Kut on steroids)
- Azerbaijan and northern Iran are taken by the Ottomans in the aftermath of the Russian revolution
 

Analytical Engine

With the possible exception of Kuwait, and a favourable border adjustment in southern Arabia, I can't see the Ottomans gaining territory from Britain. The UK is not giving up Aden if it is on the winning side, full stop - it's just too important a port. Maybe Britain transfers some of its Arabian protectorates to Ottoman suzerainty.

Cyprus and Egypt are still considered "Ottoman" but still really British, rather than legally fully British - the Ottomans haven't been able to take either.

Italy still keeps the Dodecanese and Libya - again, the Ottomans haven't taken either.

Recognition of Ottoman hegemony over Najd, Azerbaijan and some kind of sovereignty over the bits of Iran (maybe a sphere of influence) are plausible.
 

J. Westrate

Here's my idea of what an alternate Treaty of Sevres would look like:

Ottoman cessations and changes in territory
- Ottomans cede Cyprus, Aden, and the Arabian Peninsula south of a line from Aden to Qatar to Britain.
- Ottomans cede Kuwait and grant oil drilling rights in Iraq to Britain.
- The Ottomans retain Tabriz and Azerbaijan.
- The House of Saud gains control of southern Najd, with the northern border being a line from the Hejazi border east of Medina to the Persian Gulf coast north of Qatar.

Demilitarization
- The Black Sea shall be demilitarized and declared a neutral sea.
- Thrace, the Dardanelles straits, and Palestine shall become demilitarized zones,and occupied by an observer force consisting of British, French, Italian, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealander forces until 1925.
- The Ottoman Navy will be limited to two battleships, six cruisers, and any number of smaller craft. They will be barred from possessing submarines.
- The Ottoman Army will be limited to its prewar force of 210,000 men without tanks or aircraft. All Ottoman military aircraft will be transferred to the Navy.

Other
- The Ottomans will surrender control of the Ottoman Bank to a committee of half Ottoman and half Inter-Allied members until 1925. The Ottoman economy will be centrally planned by the committee.
- The Baghdad Railway will be placed under joint Anglo-Ottoman state control.
- Alexandretta will become an international port and city, and Jerusalem will become an international city.
- All Allied graveyards will be made extraterritorial under the laws of the country whose dead is buried there.
- The Ottomans will recognize the right of Jews to settle in Palestine.
- The Ottomans will ban slavery and work toward its suppression.
 
Germaniac

Germaniac

Donor
J. Westrate said:
Here's my idea of what an alternate Treaty of Sevres would look like:

Ottoman cessations and changes in territory
- Ottomans cede Cyprus, Aden, and the Arabian Peninsula south of a line from Aden to Qatar to Britain.
- Ottomans cede Kuwait and grant oil drilling rights in Iraq to Britain.
- The Ottomans retain Tabriz and Azerbaijan.
- The House of Saud gains control of southern Najd, with the northern border being a line from the Hejazi border east of Medina to the Persian Gulf coast north of Qatar.

Demilitarization
- The Black Sea shall be demilitarized and declared a neutral sea.
- Thrace, the Dardanelles straits, and Palestine shall become demilitarized zones,and occupied by an observer force consisting of British, French, Italian, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealander forces until 1925.
- The Ottoman Navy will be limited to two battleships, six cruisers, and any number of smaller craft. They will be barred from possessing submarines.
- The Ottoman Army will be limited to its prewar force of 210,000 men without tanks or aircraft. All Ottoman military aircraft will be transferred to the Navy.

Other
- The Ottomans will surrender control of the Ottoman Bank to a committee of half Ottoman and half Inter-Allied members until 1925. The Ottoman economy will be centrally planned by the committee.
- The Baghdad Railway will be placed under joint Anglo-Ottoman state control.
- Alexandretta will become an international port and city, and Jerusalem will become an international city.
- All Allied graveyards will be made extraterritorial under the laws of the country whose dead is buried there.
- The Ottomans will recognize the right of Jews to settle in Palestine.
- The Ottomans will ban slavery and work toward its suppression.
Click to expand...

Save for some of the non-starters I think the Ottomans would have accepted this treaty in 1914 just to get a British territorial guarantee.

If the Ottomans are this successful in the war I think the British will be more interested at turning the Ottomans into a future ally in their post war Russian Containment schemes. An Anglo-Ottoman-Japanese alliance aimed at Russia would be quite threatening to the Communists (or Russia if they don't succumb to revolution)
 

Magnum

The British could have tried to turn the Ottomans into an Anti-Russian ally OTL, e.g. by letting them keep the Caucasus. Why didn't they?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Magnum said:
The British could have tried to turn the Ottomans into an Anti-Russian ally OTL, e.g. by letting them keep the Caucasus. Why didn't they?
Click to expand...
Helping the Ottomans finish the Armenian genocide and extend it to Russian Armenia and backstabbing Britain’s Greek allies sounds like a great plan to win Britain friends in Europe and America.
 

Some Bloke

What happens to the Ottoman Monarchy? If it survives, it could encourage monarchism in other former Central Power states.
 
Germaniac

Germaniac

Donor
Who is to say the Armenian genocide happens in this TL. If the Ottomans have been successful then they won't need a scapegoat.
 
Germaniac

Germaniac

Donor
marathag said:
Probably is an Arab genocide of some degree to take the place of it.
Click to expand...

That is extremely unlikely. The Armenian genocide occured after decades of animosity, pogroms, and massacres. The circumstances were unique to the Armenians and in a successful Ottoman its unlikely those circumstances continue to exist.

The Arabs will demand some Autonomy at some point in the 20/30s and things could possibly go sour but until the war the vast majority of Arabs found the idea of independence dangerous and knew it would lead to western domination.
 
marathag

marathag

Banned
Germaniac said:
That is extremely unlikely. The Armenian genocide occured after decades of animosity, pogroms, and massacres.
Click to expand...
Which is what the Ottomans had been doing in the Arabian Peninsula prior to 1900, every couple generations.
It just wasn't as intense as with Armenia, same stuff, smaller scale.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top